THE MATH Daily Widget – Tuesday, May 27 – Wigand +0.00 – Total +0.10

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH Daily Widget – Tuesday, May 27 – Wigand +0.00 – Total +0.10








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What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

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Sources:
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
RCP Average

[Coexist]

1. .

[berni_mccoy]

2. The NH Data just can't be correct. NH is BLUE BLUE BLUE for Obama.

[phrigndumass]

4. Oops, you're right. I need to update my map. Figures are still counted for blue NH though

:hi:

[berni_mccoy]

11. Thanks! And thanks for doing this. I love the daily widget!

[jefferson_dem]

3. Kick-er-ooni...

For the hard numbers.

:kick:

[mod mom]

5. Glad to recommend!

[SoCalDem]

6. With Barr in, he wins Alaska & maybe even Georgia

just my hunch though :)

[phrigndumass]

7. Great! I can't wait to see that affected on Intrade and in the polls

I think I need to create a Perot column on my spreadsheet for Barr, lol!

:hi:

[SoCalDem]

8. In Alaska McCain came in BEHIND Paul & Huckabee

and they are tired of all the republican scandals..and Barr is a Son of Georgia :)

[phrigndumass]

9. LOL! Didn't know that. In 50 years of statehood ...

I wonder if Alaska has ever voted for a presidential candidate other than a Republican.

:D

[grantcart]

16. If Barr tries really hard Arizona comes into play where McCain only getting 50% now

[fight4my3sons]

10. thank you once again for putting this together

[shagsak]

12. thanks for the facts!

[dbmk]

13. K&R

NH is not as blue as I would like. Intrade is hovering around 50 and the polls have been all over the place.

Pretty sure that will change once he is finally established as the nominee, though.

[phrigndumass]

14. Did you notice the widgets? :)

:D

I'll bet you're right ... once Obama has the golden ticket, the percentage of undecideds will go down.

[dbmk]

15. I did, thanks. :)

Just the codemonkey, though - you guys came up with the system.

An interesting note for everyone else, btw: We loaded the numbers for the Rasmussen Markets, that is basically Intrade with play money. And the numbers are surprisingly similar. Most of them are in within +/- 4 of the Intrade numbers.

Both markets predict an Obama win with 293 delegates atm.

[Drunken Irishman]

17. Give NH to Obama, recent Rasmussen (right-leaning) poll has him winning there.

This is the first real signs of McCain struggling, since he camped out there in 2000 and 2008. This is essentially McCain's second home and there is no reason he shouldn't take it easily. Yet his campaign is struggling up there.

[phrigndumass]

19. Thanks, that was an oops on my part ...

I changed the polls blue for New Hampshire in my spreadsheets when the Rasmussen poll came out, but I forgot to create a new map with the change.

:dunce:

[grantcart]

23. I came up with the name - real tough lol

[grantcart]

18. I think Intrade is the most interesting at this point because it reflects the same

type of thinking that will mirror Republican contributors.

It seems to me that these numbers point to a real fundraising problem for McCain.

[Ysabel]

20. thanks k and r...

[MadBadger]

21. New Poll numbers out of Iowa: SUSA: Obama 47, McCain 38

[phrigndumass]

22. Great! :)

Thanks for pointing that out. Wow, that's 15% undecided, I wonder how SUSA asked the poll questions ...

:hi: