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Youphemism Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:25 PM
Original message
Per Obama Camp: Under 50 SDs to go...

Depending on whose math you use, it could be up to a few more than 50. In any case, I think this is a psychologically significant number, particularly with Hillary about (again, depending on the count you use) 200 delegates behind this.

I wonder whether being in the "red zone" to the nomination will have the effect of eroding those superdelegates who are still reluctant to commit.

If they don't get on board soon, their votes will not be considered helpful by the Obama folks. As politicians, I would think they'd want to be considered a strategic ally of the winning team.

Do you think this number will start a waterfall effect in the final week before the last primaries and Saturday's DNC meeting to determine the status of Michigan and Florida?

-----------

http://thepage.time.com/obama-release-on-delegate-math /

COUNTDOWN TO THE NOMINATION: 49 delegates to go.

Including the 2 additional Edwards delegates who are now pledged to Obama, the 3 superdelegates whose support we received in Hawaii (Hawaii Democratic Party Chair: Brian Schatz, Vice Chair: Kari Luna and unpledged Add-On: James Burns), the 3 superdelegates whose support we received on Saturday (former Alaska Gov. Tony Knowles, Georgia State Party Secretary Stephen Leeds and Wyoming state Rep. W. Patrick Goggles.) and the 3 superdelegates who announced their support on Friday (Oregon superdelegate Jenny Greenleaf, Congressman Jim Costa and Dennis Cardoza); Obama is now just 49 delegates away from securing the nomination.

The Math

Total Pledged Delegates: 3,253

Pledged Delegates needed for majority: 1,627

Total delegates needed for nomination: 2026

Edwards pledged delegates now supporting Obama: 11

Obama Pledged Delegates: 1,648.5 (21.5 more than needed for the majority)

Obama Superdelegates: 317.5

Obama Total Delegates: 1,977

Number of delegates Obama needs to secure the nomination: 49
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dkf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:26 PM
Response to Original message
1. Not 50 SDs...just Ds! Much better because we can get them
through pledged and super delegates.

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Youphemism Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:38 PM
Response to Reply #1
13. Yes, "delegates." But I was referring to...

...this coming week, before any more primaries would give him a chance to gain delegates and before the DNC meeting on Saturday.

It would require a big break among the superdelegates to put him over the top by Saturday, but I'm thinking this proximity to the final number might shake some loose... And, the closer he gets, the harder the shaking will be, as SDs realize they might miss the bus if they wait.
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thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:27 PM
Response to Original message
2. You mean under 50 delegates to go? Obama probably needs 10 SD to secure the nomination.
Edited on Mon May-26-08 05:27 PM by thewiseguy
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OzarkDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:27 PM
Response to Original message
3. Then on to defeat in November
Good job.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:30 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. I think you forgot to add that he needs to find 50 delegates
who will fall for the race baiting sexist campaign and also be willing to be bought out.

That covers your tripe doesn't it?
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my3boyz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:45 PM
Response to Reply #6
19. Awww..don't be too sad. Hilly will be able to keep her senate seat...for now! nt
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OzarkDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:46 PM
Response to Reply #6
20. Getting delegates is his problem
So is an uphill and ultimately losing battle in the GE.


Obama's campaign has consciously made these choices in their campaign strategy. They alone have to deal with it.
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grantcart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:51 PM
Response to Reply #20
24. except every time he has been in a campaign his numbers go up
while when the campaign started Hillary flat lined.





you actually need to get out of all those pro Hillary sites and actually read a little bit.

I found this at a pro hillary site

http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/012574.php

He has been for Hillary the whole time - an early and enthusiastic endorser.

But now he is for Obama and he says that one of the reasons is electability



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OzarkDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 06:25 PM
Response to Reply #24
31. Yet Clinton still beats him against McCain
Voters know what they want and they prefer Clinton over Obama vs McCain.

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Bicoastal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 07:05 PM
Response to Reply #31
38. If elections were decided by taking an extended lead in Gallup polls...
Obama would have been the nominee for a week now.

We're being railroaded by Hillary/McCain Dems--but once she drops out and drops out graciously, those numbers will change.
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Botany Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:30 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. Don't go away mad Ozark Dem
Edited on Mon May-26-08 05:35 PM by Botany
Just go away :rofl:

BTW "Don't stop thinking about tomorrow."

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OzarkDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:34 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. Not going anywhere
But we will watch the Obama folks screw up the election and pick up the pieces afterwards.

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Kittycat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:38 PM
Response to Reply #11
14. And hillary has done her part to sabotage the Dem party from within
By trying to validate every fear or talking point the right wing could come up with. Stuff that normally we would just ignore, has been falsely validated from within our own party. Gee, hillary is our own new Lieberman.
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Botany Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:40 PM
Response to Reply #11
16. Please you seem in so much pain ....
... lashing out @ everybody & everything this can't be healthy for you.

Go for hike .... do something but trying to be nasty to people here @
D.U. is really a dead end. I hope you find peace.

As for me this will be the last time i will ever respond to you.
Good Bye
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OzarkDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:43 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. Not at all, very much at peace with the process
If we lose, we lose. Dems have done it many times before. As I've said, I'll be ok. I'm not in the category of people who get hurt by repressive GOP administrations.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 06:03 PM
Response to Reply #18
28. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
datopbanana Donating Member (938 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 06:48 PM
Response to Reply #18
34. WOW. What an extraordinarily selfish statement. I hope that wasn't a glimpse into your true nature
Edited on Mon May-26-08 06:51 PM by datopbanana
"If we lose, we lose. Dems have done it many times before. As I've said, I'll be ok. I'm not in the category of people who get hurt by repressive GOP administrations."

:(
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:46 PM
Response to Reply #11
21. at FreeRepublic?
or Stormfront.com or
Lucianne.com?

I think most of us here will be tryng our best to defeat Mccain...

People who want to defeat Obama, will have to link up with republicans or maybe Bob Barr
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OzarkDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 06:30 PM
Response to Reply #21
32. You have a very strange way of doing it
and your candidate will lose to McCain if he gets the nom, because his campaign and supporters have been such a negative, destructive and divisive force within the party.

You really don't expect fellow Dems to vote for your candidate after you've called them racists, pigs, a**holes, liars, etc.

Its obvious from your scorched earth tactics, the most destructive members and supporters of Obama's campaign have never worked for a winning presidential campaign before. And they won't be this year either.
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 06:35 PM
Response to Reply #32
33. To be accurate, I never called them pigs..
Edited on Mon May-26-08 06:36 PM by SoCalDem
but if the other "shoes" fit..well, I may have called them that :)

Division started with Clinton's cadre, and Obama has shrugged it off & continued winning.. I know that's got to irritate the hell out of Clinton's peole, but it just is what it is..

She was ahead, she ran a shitty campaign and she lost..
the ONLY thing different about her campaign, is that she decided to stalk instead of suspend..and if her helpers want to keep loaning her money to schlep all over the place throwing shit at the candidate, that's her (and their ) choice.. He's moved on..so have we :)

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OzarkDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 06:55 PM
Response to Reply #33
36. You're entitled to your opinion
but forget about getting Bill Clinton's support. You hate him so much, why would you want his help?
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thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:31 PM
Response to Reply #3
8. Before that we must say goodbye to you on DU
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OzarkDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:35 PM
Response to Reply #8
12. Thank goodness you're leaving
Hopefully you can all go create your own Obama worshipping party elsewhere - some place where people worship candidates and ignore the issues.
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Whalestoe Donating Member (928 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:31 PM
Response to Reply #3
10. I don't understand...
Hillary Clinton can "beat" John McCain, but she can't beat Barack Obama... so she should be the Nominee? Man, why even have primaries? We should just POLL who can beat the Republicans and make them our Nominee, right? I mean, it seems to be the most logical of things to do. It's not like the election isn't 5 months away or anything. Heck, lets just make Hillary our President now since she's beating McCain in polls. That sounds fair and American to me too.
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Youphemism Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:42 PM
Response to Reply #3
17. Are you suggesting you want him to lose?

This sort of post doesn't do much to further the cause of the democratic party you mention in your screen name -- nor does it help Hillary to be seen in a better light.

Am I misreading your post? Is it really "Hillary or nobody" for you?
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RichardRay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:57 PM
Response to Reply #3
27. Yes, Senator Obama's supporters did a good job....
and as a result it appears likely that he will be the nominee. If you and the other supporters of Senator Clinton had done a better job, perphas she would be the likely nominee.

But, you didn't, did you?

You sort of blew it, didn't you?

You just couldn't hack it, could you?

Or, did you? Maybe you did the best job you could and the electorate and the Democratic Party weren't convinced, and they preferred Senator Obama. I understand that you're unhappy about that, but please stop trying to make the rest of the world unhappy with you; we're busy trying to continue to do a good job until we elect the guy we like.

We could use your help, when you're through being unhappy.
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Yotun Donating Member (346 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 06:16 PM
Response to Reply #3
30. That's who the people decided. If you don't like that, tough, that's how the process plays out.
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Muttocracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:28 PM
Response to Original message
4. I bet they have a bunch lined up to release over the next few days and after Puerto Rico.
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:31 PM
Response to Reply #4
9. The word is that he has 17 set to endorse before June 3rd.
That will set up guaranteed clinch on Junes 3rd.
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LordJFT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:39 PM
Response to Reply #9
15. the florida and michigan decision on may 30 will probably be a compromise
meaning that it could take more delegates than that
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:50 PM
Response to Reply #15
23. Disqualified states'.. "votes" will probably not be "allowed" to "change" the candidate selection
and since popular vote is a NO DEAL, the few thousand extra Mzzhillie "may" have will be inconsequential, since the candidate will already have been selected..

She can have a mainstreet, victory parade in Pyrrhicville
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:52 PM
Response to Reply #15
25. I don't think the FL/MI ruling will change Obama's ability to clinch on the 3rd.
They may seat some of the delegates, but I don't think they will leave any Uncommitted. In other words, there won't be a greater number "in play". And I doubt they will give superdelegates from FL/MI a seat, and will probably give only partial credit on the Pledged.

The number to clinch might be higher than 2026, but I doubt will be 2209.

I think Obama has plenty of Supers waiting to tip it, no matter what the final clinch number, and will do it on June 3rd.
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GoesTo11 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 06:54 PM
Response to Reply #15
35. Likely compromise will be 1/2 apportioned, as voted, uncommitted for Obama
This give HRC about 30.
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LordJFT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 07:07 PM
Response to Reply #35
39. If it was decided that way than it would increase the # of delegates Obama needs to win
Now he would still have it locked up, I'm just saying it could delay his victory
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Botany Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:28 PM
Response to Original message
5. Get thee to Obama Delegates
on friday we started @ 63 or 65 away .... now @ 49 :bounce:
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housewolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:47 PM
Response to Original message
22. That number is subject to change next week when FL & MI are resolved
It will go up. It would behove Obama to wait until we all know what the final number will be until declaring himself the winner. I agree that is WILL BE the winner, but until we all know exactly how many delegates are needed, I hope he doesn't declare too soon and then find out he needs more delegates to have a majority. Since the Puerto Rico election isn't until the day after the DNC Rules Committee meeting, the timing might be good.

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Youphemism Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 05:53 PM
Response to Reply #22
26. You're right...

I think that, if Obama makes it to 2026 before Michigan and Florida are seated, he will have to be very careful about how and when he goes about declaring victory.

He's been pretty careful so far. I think he'll be doubly careful about this. He knows it would be bad to offend women, Michigan voters, and especially Florida voters.

I suspect the strongest language he'd use would be to call it "a clear indication of the inevitable result."
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WeDidIt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 06:06 PM
Response to Reply #22
29. It won't alter the numbers needed appreciably
You can count on that.

And he'll more than make up for the additional delegates he'll need in the coming week.
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housewolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 06:59 PM
Response to Reply #29
37. If they give MI & FL each 50& of their pledged delegates
Edited on Mon May-26-08 07:00 PM by housewolf
and no superdelegates, then Obama will need 101 delegates and Clinton will need 240 (out of 341) to win the majority.

In that scenario, the total delegates needed will be 4233; a majority would be 2117. Obama current has 1976, he picks up half of what he won in FL (37) and half of what he won in MI (3) giving him 2016, so he would need 101. Hillary currently has 1776, she would pick up half of what she won in FL (57) and half of what she won in MI (40) giving her 1876, so she would need 240. Those "needed" counts encompass both the delegates from the final 3 elections, the uncommitted pledged delegates (including the ones from MI), the 7 remaining Edwards delegates and the remaining super-delegates (except FL & MI which wouldn't get any).


I hope we know sometime on Saturday what the actual counts are. All this speculation and playing with different scenarios is mind-boggling.


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WeDidIt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 07:19 PM
Response to Reply #37
40. I guarantee, you're not counting MI right
MI will not go the way anybody thinks it will because the DNC directly requested candidated not campaign or participate. Obma chose not to participate. He will not be punished for following the rules.

End of the day, Obama will need about an additional 10-30 delegates to win.

Also, I doubt we'll have an answer on May 31. They may wait for four days to let the rest of the contests play out.
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housewolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 07:41 PM
Response to Reply #40
41. This was just one scenario based on the actual vote apportionment
Edited on Mon May-26-08 07:43 PM by housewolf
I guess there were some write-in votes for Obama because he actually won about 5 delegates, so I halved that and gave him 3. It's sort of a "if we go by the rules but discount the delegate count by half instead of completely). It's only 1 of a number of possibilities and certainly isn't the best-case scenario for Obama. My "needed" numbers of course will be reduced by whatever delegates will be awarded from the last 3 contests.

You're right, it doesn't take into account some other apportionment that they could come up with for MI. Time will tell, so we'll see in the next week or 10 days how it shakes out.

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