FL and MI... So what?

[Gore1FL]

Right now under the DNC rules, Obama leads Clinton by 161 Pledged Delegates, 36 Super Delegates This adds up to 197 Delegates overall.

In Florida Clinton Picks up a net:
36 Pledged Delegates
3 Super Delegates

Or 39 Total Delegates

Assuming Obama gets NONE of the MI pledged delegates (which is sort of a silly assumption, but let's go with it for the sake of argument) Clinton Picks up a net:
73 Pledged Delegates
2 Super Delegates

Or 75 Total Delegates


Combined this is 114 delegates.

197-114 = 83, leaving Obama with a still insurmountable lead in delegates.

Now lets say all those remaining undeclared MI delegates got to Hillary despite being anti-Hillary votes
That adds
55 Pledged Delegates

83-55 = 28

That means she merely needs to tie in SD and MT (which won't happen) and win PR with 73% of the vote to tie (which isn't going to happen).

In other words, if a string of insanely impossible events happen, FL and MI could actually have an impact...

[lapfog_1]

1. I'm pretty sure her campaign knows these numbers.

Which is why she brought up the RFK assassination when asked why she is staying in the race.

[Johnny__Motown]

2. Agreed, but it is more likely that the compromises from each state will be accepted,

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/fl-mi-by-numbers_21.html


That would give Clinton a net 10 from MI and 18 from FL (pledged)


So Obama's lead will be cut to 133



Still an insurmountable lead.

[Gore1FL]

4. and that is in pledged delegates alone!

his overall lead is the 133 you mention + (36 - 5) or 164.

Even assuming the remaining SDs of the MI and FL inexplicably flock to Hillary, the overall lead is only reduced by another 28 to 136.

I am not sure what the Hillary supporters believe the Oranges and Shoes they are sending will really accomplish.

[Johnny__Motown]

7. Yes.. I should have said Pledged.... Hillary wanted to cut his lead to 99 or less. It won't happen

99 pledged delegates that is.


I guess she thought she could argue that a double digit loss is somehow different than a triple digit loss.


Anyways I don't see it happening.

Accepting both compromise proposals from FL & MI gives us the ability to say we gave the states exactly what they asked for, seated delegations from both states and still punished them for moving the primaries.


It will also be a very quick way to deal with this problem. So Al Gore can announce the decision at the joint fundraiser that night. The call for party unity will be raised by Mr. Gore and we can all start to move beyond Hillary and the primaries.

[Gore1FL]

10. It won't be too soon for me.

Then Hillary will have the choice of trying to unify the party, or join Zell Miller, Joe Lieberman and James Traficant in world of Democratic outcasts.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

3. She's in it to win it!

:crazy: :silly:

[grantcart]

5. next week it will be popular vote blah blah blah

[jerryster]

6. My concern is a little different.

I am very concerned about the voters in those 2 primaries who may feel disenfranchised enough to sit November out. Aren't we saying to them, in a way, that they need to be punished for exercising their constitutional right to vote? The voters in FL and MI may not even know the names of those responsible for defying the DNC.

I realize it's early regarding polls for the GE. Nonetheless,using Rasmussen's state by state poll I added up the electoral votes and found it's possible mathematically for McCain to win the GE without Ohio. In my depressing scenario it was Michigan that put him over the top.

I believe it is critical that we don't dismiss the voters there, regardless of the idiocy and arrogance of their party leaders in that state.

[Johnny__Motown]

8. the constitution does not cover primaries.

sorry

[Gore1FL]

9. I respect that view

though I am not inclined to completely agree that Dem voters of FL and MI will stay home in enough weight to make a difference in either contest (I am already assuming FL is going Red as any strategy that relies on it going blue is a recipe for failure as seen previously).

I do find it disheartening that no one seemed to care about these states until they were perceived to be able to change the the outcome of the nomination process. That was the point of the thread--to show that they were, in fact, not going to make an impact on the overall outcome.

Thanks for your thoughtful response.

[jerryster]

12. I agree w/ you about FL.

I think it's solid red this time around and I hope (as you do) that it's not part of DEM strategy.

[TahitiNut]

11. That horse escaped in January. There ain't no closing the barn door anymore.

I'm a Michigan voter so I'll not pretend to speak for Florida, but our January primary was a total FUBAR. In effect, the "they won't count" drumbeat was VOTER SUPPRESSION. The very fact that the election was preemptively de-legitimized made it an unrecoverable charade. We wouldn't approve of such an election in ANY third-world country under an election monitoring role, so we shouldn't here either.

The voters were not offered an opportunity to face and question the candidates. The candidates were prohibited from engaging in voter outreach, GOTV efforts, or even distributing bumper-stickers! No spending and no campaigning. On top of that, the second tier candidates were coerced into removing their names from the ballots under the "participation" prohibition in the Four State Pledge.

FUBAR. Complete FUBAR. That bell cannot be unrung. Humpty Dumpty is an omelet and Hillary is feasting on it while pretending to 'reassemble' him. Hillary isn't trying to give voters the chance to "delegate" their authority in Denver - she's trying to create the FACADE of a 'delegation' for completely self-serving motives and saying "Fuck you" to the voters in Michigan.

The Democratic Party (HEAVILY-influenced by Clinton surrogates) screwed the pooch on that one and lost about 5% of the vote in Michigan in the GE as a result. It guaranteed that a state almost guaranteed to vote 'D' in November is, at best, now a "swing state."

Is it recoverable? Maybe. But trying to harvest the organs and exploit the corpse of the Michigan Primary will only make that task more difficult. A LOT of spending and campaigning will be needed ... and I seriously doubt the Democrats will do so - particularly in the City of Detroit where the mayor is now a political leper.

They fucked up BIG TIME. Hillary continues to do so.

[jerryster]

13. Agreed.

So the question is, I guess, what can we do to win back the Michiganders?

[TahitiNut]

14. Intensive General Election campaigning ... spending time and money.

That's the ONLY chance the Democrats have in this state. But like I said, they won't touch Detroit as long as Kwame Kilpatrick is a political leper. Without Detroit, they're fucked.

[Gore1FL]

15. As aMI resident do you really think they satte will go red?

McCain's economic message is basically, "stay the course."

[TahitiNut]

16. Yes, indeed. We have DIck and Betsy DeVos ... so far right they make McCain look liberal.

We're the home of the "Reagan Democrats" of Macomb County. We're the archetype of "white flight" in southeast Michigan. Michigan is a "split ticket" constituency. With Bob Barr on the Libertarian line and either Nader or McKinney(!) on the Green line, there're plenty of options for expressing anger at being the worst econoomy in the entire country.

Romney "won" the GOP primary this year, but McCain carried the state in 2004. If McCain puts Romney on the ballot as his second, the Democrats will have a tough row to hoe.

If the Democratic Party continues to avoid the state, they'll be penalized. Never let it be said that Michigan voters won't vote against their own self-interest out of anger and pique. This is the state that had John Engler (R-Hell) as Governor in the 90s and sent Spencer Abraham to the Senate. Our current Governor is a DLCer as is Debbie Stabenow, our "junior" Senator.

Obama has the better chance to carry the state - a less than 50-50 chance without campaigning. If Hillary is on the ticket in any way, forget it.

[CreekDog]

17. because they use the "will of the voters" as impetus to count FL and MI

don't assume that once that is done, they won't resort to a contradictory argument to have the superdelegates overrule the primary process.

in fact, count on it. :banghead: