Buyers' Remorse:How Rank &File Democrats Rejected Obama Once He Was Declared The "Inevitable" Nom...

[Iceburg]

Paul Lukasiak of Corrente Wire haspublished a rigorous statistical analysis of primary results.
This is a must read for all dataholics and dare I say -- all of the Superdelegates too.

Buyers' Remorse: How Rank & File Democrats Rejected Obama Once He Was Declared The "Inevitable" Nominee

by Paul_Lukasiak
Sat, 2008-05-24 19:36

http://www.correntewire.com/buyers_remorse_how_rank_file_democrats_rejected_obama_once_he_was_declared_the_inevitable_nominee

PART ONE: ALL VOTERS, GENDER, AND RACE

Ever since the media declared that Barack Obama was “inevitable” after February 19th, based on a two week period when an unprepared Hillary Clinton campaign suffered “10 straight losses”, rank and file Democratic voters have been sending a message. Rather than rally ‘round the “inevitable nominee” that message has been a consistent, loud, and clear message to the Democratic Party – DO NOT WANT.

In nearly every demographic category since February 19, Clinton’s percentage of the vote has risen, while Obama’s has fallen. This includes Obama’s supposed “strong” demographic categories such as voters with college degrees post-graduate degrees and voters whose income is above the national median. And Clinton beat Obama in the primaries in March, April and May in most of the major categories.

...

ALL VOTERS, GENDER, RACE—CHANGES BETWEEN FEBRUARY and MARCH- MAY PRIMARIES

Once voters realized that Obama would be the nominee, his support within most demographic categories declined, and declined significantly in most cases. Obama’s support declined overall by 2.3%

· Obama’s support among men declined by 2%,
· Obama’s support declined among women by 1.2%,
· Obama’s support declined among White voters by 4.8%,
· Obama’s support declined among Hispanic/Latino voters by 3.2%,
· Obama’s support declined among White males by 6.7%, and
· Obama’s support declined among White females by 3.6%.

...

Clinton’s overall support, on the other hand, increased by 4.7%

· Clinton’s support increased among Males by 6.0%,
· Clinton’s support increased among Females by 3.1%,
· Clinton’s support increased among White voters by 6.2%,
· Clinton’s support increased among Hispanic/Latino voters by 2.6%,
· Clinton’s support increased among White males by 10.8%, and
· Clinton’s support increased among White females by 6.0%.

...

ADJUSTED MARCH-MAY RACIAL/ETHNIC DATA --
2004 GENERAL ELECTION DISTRIBUTION
CLINTON OBAMA
WHITE March - May Primaries 39.5% 24.5%
WHITE General Election adjusted 46.8% 29.0%
BLACK March - May Primaries 2.1% 16.5%
BLACK General Election adjusted 1.2% 9.7%
HISPANIC March - May Primaries 8.0% 3.9%
HISPANIC Gen. Election adjusted 5.3% 2.6%
TOTAL March - May Primaries 49.6% 44.8%
TOTAL General Election adjusted 53.3% 41.2%

more at the

[Swamp Rat]

1. Paul Lukasiak is an 'outliar'

:D

[GarbagemanLB]

2. lol, she lost. Get over it.

[anonymous171]

3. You must be one of those 310 people.