North Carolina GE: Mccain 44 Obama 39 Mccain +5

[lsusteel]

http://www.jwpcivitasinstitute.org/files/MAY08%20PRES.pdf

Obama leads Mccain 43-32 among independents.

Once again, as I said in http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6036369&mesg_id=6036369">in this thread, the problem is not the independents.

Breakdown by party:

Democrats:

Obama 58
Mccain 22


Republicans:

Obama 11
Mccain 77


If Obama was pulling the same # among Democrats as Mccain is among Republicans, Obama would be leading 48-38 (if my math is correct)

What this tells me:

1. You better pray that the Dem base rallies
2. If it does, Obama could win in a landslide. Obama is typically polling between 55-70% among Democrats. If he brings that number up to 75-80%, he will take a solid lead in many of these close states such as Virginia, Ohio, PA, NC, and NV as well as building on his already solid leads in MI, IA, CO, and NM. Arizona is also in play, surprisingly enough, with Mccain only leading by 11% while pulling 84% of Republicans (Obama pulls about 70% of Democrats). Texas is another state that could be put in play if the base rallies.


Basically, when (if) the Dem base rallies, Obama could change the electoral map and it might not be as close as people are expecting.

If the Dem base doesn't rally, it's game over. The effect would be the same as if Hillary ran as an indep.


A concern, however, is that Mccain leads Obama 53-27 among whites, with 20% undecided. That 20% could be those afraid to say they're voting against the black guy.

[sellitman]

1. This is why Hillary is our only choice!

:sarcasm:

[BluegrassDem]

6. Once Obama is the official nominee, the Dems will rally

It'll be so much nicer when Obama will only have to deal with McCain and Hillary is somewhere back in Chappaqua. I predict the Dems will rally big time! It may not be instantaneous, but we'll all be united in the fall.

[Joe the Revelator]

2. All the more reason to unite behind the nominee

[GarbagemanLB]

3. BINGO. The longer Hillary drags this on, the worse our chances are in November.

[NightWatcher]

4. if the nom was wrapped up tomorrow, the Hill people would have time to relax and vote

with their brains instead of still being pissed about Hillary's losing and vote with their hearts.

We need this over now so everyone can mellow out and work on the general

[CanonRay]

5. The Dem base won't "rally" until Hillary folds her tent.

Until then, they'll stubbornly hold out and say they won't vote for Obama in order to make HRC's campaign look more viable than it is. Once it's either/or, the vast majority will vote for Obama. I think the racists among Dems have been voting Repug for a long time now anyway.

[featherman]

7. Just a May poll (too early with nom undecided) but good news keeping McCain

that far under 50% in a red state.

[MattNC]

8. And that's from

a conservative pollster no less.

[RL3AO]

9. Yep. Obamas dem number will go up when the race is over.

I don't know how often they take this poll, but I expect Obama to be leading it the next time they take it in NC.

[Occam Bandage]

10. Nice upward trend.