Will the post-convention bounce be bigger for the Republicans?

[lupita]

I am a bit worried since their convention will be in NY, and during September.

What do you think?

Lupita

[beyurslf]

1. It is typically 2/3rds of the challenger...

This is what they say anyway.

[yellowcanine]

15. That is the Bushbots' talking point. Repeating Bushbot talking

points is bad luck.

[buycitgo]

2. I think it depends a LOT on how the hoes interpret it

for the nonthikers that comprise the majority of the voting public

and that SCARES me

remember the debates?

remember how the hoes vilified Gore's acceptance speech, only to realize that the PUBLIC actually went for it?

they have so much power

scares the holy jeezuzz out of me

[lupita]

3. I loved Gore in the debates...

which tells you how disconnected from the 'hoes' I am.

I forgot the debates... They might give us the upper hand in the end.

[NWHarkness]

4. No, but the media will say it is

[David Dunham]

6. It will fade because of problems with Iraq and the economy.

[tedoll78]

5. It will be minimal.

I think that it will be another exercise in futility for the Chimp. Why?

Well, he tried the "terror, terror, terror" strategy with his State of the Union address. Americans smartly recognized this one-note theme and he received no bounce from his SOTU address. Will he have learned that hitting the "fear button" over and over doesn't work anymore? From the looks of things, it seems that the answer is "no."

Also note that his SOTU address was right in the middle of the Dems' primary season, when there was constant criticism of him. This time of the year will be no different; we will have our own rebuttal machine at the ready. It seems to me that he performs less well when there's a sustained, LOUD effort at keeping the pressure on him. Hopefully we've learned that by now.

Thirdly, I'm betting on a minimal bounce because the American people know him better than any pResident in recent times. Because of the events of the past 3.5 years, we've been forced to look at him. They know him already; if they aren't impressed by now (or even just mildly committed to him), chances are that they won't be anytime soon.

The only real thing that the GOP can try is to go negative. Kerry is still riding on some really nice, realistic, stable polling numbers right now. People see him as capable, trustworthy, competent, intelligent, in-touch, etc. The GOP can, at best, hope to bring him down into the cellar with Bush. And even then, that strategy would carry its own risk of disgusting voters.

Overall, I predict a 3 or 4% bounce. But, barring a major attack or OBL being magically found, I think the race will remain tied or with Kerry slightly ahead.

[lupita]

7. I lcved your well reasoned responese n/t

[michigandem2]

16. i agree...good post..nt

[notbush]

8. Who knows???

This is a "different" election cycle, because of the extreme polorization that the nation is going through.
We can all look back at past elections and attempt to make rationalizations for our own personal opinions.
Truth is, we have to run "like we're 20 points behind". This is no time to think "it's in the bag". It is also no time to worry that the sky is falling.
Keep your eyes on November, and do what you can to help.

[enigmatic]

9. I'll be shocked if he gets more than a 2 percent bounce..

If that; I really think he's going to have a mini-breakdown during his acceptance speech..

[WI_DEM]

10. I'm afraid that Bush will get a bigger bounce than Kerry did

Why? because Kerry had been leading going into his convention and Bush is behind going into his. I do think it is conceivable that Bush could go into the NY convention 4 or 5 points down and come out with a 2-3 point lead--which would cause the media to jump with joy. But a convention bounce doesn't usually last--and I think within a couple of weeks the candidates will be running even again and it will be the debates which will be critical.

[opihimoimoi]

11. The BandWagons are outside, engines running. Bush is Toast

[WI_DEM]

13. lets hope so

[shivaji]

12. Yes, but only if

Crooked mouth Cheney bangs his head on the lecturn
and confesses all his sins, and then resigns in
disgrace, and either McCain or Giuliani replaces him.

Therefore NO! Not possible, since Cheney is the real
puppet master.

[Julien Sorel]

14. Bush is a known quantity.

Kerry, while fairly high profile, was still not well known by everyone, so it makes sense that he would get a higher bounce. I think the theme introduced at the D convention of strength and optimism also helps Kerry.

People have had four years or thereabouts to get to know Bush, so he isn't going to get much of a bounce from people who find out what he is about via the convention. However, if the Republicans put on a good show, find a resonating theme, they could get a reasonable lift. Bush is a terrible speaker, so that hurts his ability to articulate a powerful theme; on the other hand, if he can pull off a folksy kind of thing ("Yeah, I'm dumb, but I'm a nice guy, and I'm just like you!"), it might get people to forgive him for being so grossly incompetent and stupid.


I think I read here that the Republicans are planning a bread-and-circus convention, with entertainment and the like, so I doubt they have a particularly nifty theme, and are counting on using the convention as part of an overall feelgood, appeal to values approach to the campaign. It's unimaginative, but there isn't much more they can do, given Bush's limited skillset and dismal record. I don't think they are counting on much of a bounce, but I myself am a little worried that the public will lap up the bread and circus, appeal to heartland values thing. Time will tell.

[yellowcanine]

17. If there is a bounce it will be in the 2-3% range and will be short lived.

There may even be a negative bounce if all the Pubs do is go on a foaming at the mouth anti-Kerry rant. Dare we hope they will do that?

[Monte Carlo]

18. Would the RNC present anything we didn't know before?

With the country taken as a whole, that is.

Kerry is still making his name on the national stage. The DNC did a great job of upping his profile and elaborating on it for people who did not know him before, which was many.

Bush, on the other hand, is well known to the whole country. Idiots who don't even pay attention to politics know who he is. I wonder what he can say or do at his nomination that is really going to get people excited again.

[Zynx]

19. Virtually nothing. In fact, the September 11th connection might hurt them.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

20. I expect no bounce.

Where would it come from?