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Edited on Thu May-22-08 10:08 AM by FredScuttle
Technically, no delegate casts his/her vote until the convention, but Obama has clinched the pledged delegate majority and leads in superdelegates who have publicly endorsed a candidate. Obama cannot clinch the nomination before the convention outright because there aren't enough pledged delegates left in the three primaries to do so. He could have 64 SDs come out and endorse him before the convention, but it's unlikely they will do that before next week's DNC rules and bylaws meeting on how to resolve the Michigan and Florida delegation seating issue.
My guess is that, depending how that meeting goes will determine how the superdelegates act. If Hillary negotiates her exit, she will withdraw and we will proceed smoothly to the convention, united behind our presumptive nominee. If she and her surrogates decide to play hardball, the SDs will come out for Obama and snuff her insurgent move.
EDIT: Forgot to add....while it is possible that a delegate, pledged or otherwise, could switch his/her vote, it is highly, highly unlikely that a pledged delegate would do so and, regarding SDs, it would be quite the stretch to expect SDs who have committed to Obama to switch to Hillary. whose lost every measurable metric in the primaries and is $20 million in the red.
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