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Is it true that if Obama reaches the 2025 delegate mark before May 31, then this nomination is his

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IsItJustMe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-22-08 09:56 AM
Original message
Is it true that if Obama reaches the 2025 delegate mark before May 31, then this nomination is his
and can not be taken away from him? I hear this bantered about in the msm and also hear.

I have no idea if this is true or not. I am not a lawyer and I am not a big enough sponge brain understand the DNC rules.

Does anyone know for certain whether or not this is true?

If it is true, than this may give the remaining SD's the incentive to get on board with Obama to avoid the upcoming catastrophe of Hillary taking this all the way into August.
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LTR Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-22-08 10:00 AM
Response to Original message
1. The problem is the SDs
Their endorsement is not set in stone until the convention. Though, by the current rules, Obama would basically be the de facto nominee. They wouldn't think of turning that around.

Nothing is ever 100% final until the convention vote. Same with McCain, who is not yet the 'official' nominee for the GOP, though he basically is presumed to be.
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LakeSamish706 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-22-08 10:00 AM
Response to Original message
2. I don't think thats true, because as I understand it... Both Pledged and Super Delegates...
can change their minds right up until the convention.....
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mohc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-22-08 10:01 AM
Response to Original message
3. No
Hitting 2025, whether by inclusion of superdelegates or not, does not make him the nominee, only the presumptive nominee. If the total number of delegates change, then the number one must have to hold a majority also changes. Depending on one's perspective this could cause Obama to go from being the presumptive nominee to not being after May 31.
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FredScuttle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-22-08 10:06 AM
Response to Original message
4. By appearances. yes you are correct
Edited on Thu May-22-08 10:08 AM by FredScuttle
Technically, no delegate casts his/her vote until the convention, but Obama has clinched the pledged delegate majority and leads in superdelegates who have publicly endorsed a candidate. Obama cannot clinch the nomination before the convention outright because there aren't enough pledged delegates left in the three primaries to do so. He could have 64 SDs come out and endorse him before the convention, but it's unlikely they will do that before next week's DNC rules and bylaws meeting on how to resolve the Michigan and Florida delegation seating issue.

My guess is that, depending how that meeting goes will determine how the superdelegates act. If Hillary negotiates her exit, she will withdraw and we will proceed smoothly to the convention, united behind our presumptive nominee. If she and her surrogates decide to play hardball, the SDs will come out for Obama and snuff her insurgent move.

EDIT: Forgot to add....while it is possible that a delegate, pledged or otherwise, could switch his/her vote, it is highly, highly unlikely that a pledged delegate would do so and, regarding SDs, it would be quite the stretch to expect SDs who have committed to Obama to switch to Hillary. whose lost every measurable metric in the primaries and is $20 million in the red.
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