Obama is not the nominee yet.

[kentuck]

Of course, he wants to promote that idea. Last night, he went over the 50% of pledged delegates that are eligible to vote. But unfortunately, 1627 delegate votes does not win the nomination. It takes 2025. When he gets that number, then he will be the nominee.

But, his supporters say, there is almost no way that he cannot get those numbers? Such confidence is admirable although not totally in touch with reality. The novelty of his campaign has now worn off and Hillary has surged at the end. She will probably end up with the majority of the popular vote. Michigan and Florida are not going to disappear. That problem still needs to be resolved.

There is no way possible for Obama to be denied the nomination if he gets the majority of the pledged delegate votes? It would divide and destroy the Party. Hillary should surrender now before it gets even worse, they say.

As an Obama supporter, I think he will end up with the 2025 votes needed to be the nominee. Unless something happens to change the votes of some of the Super Delegates. Then, at the Convention, they could conceivably vote for Hillary, with Obama on the ticket as the VP. However, I am willing to concede that scenario is highly unlikely.

But, it is not accurate to assume that Obama is already the nominee just because he got the majority of the pledged delegates. Perhaps it should be that way? But the Party has set up the Super Delegate system to determine the winner in such close races. My hope is that, in the future, the Super Delegate system will be dispensed with. If that were true today, Obama would be the nominee of the Party today.

[damntexdem]

1. But he should be.

And he will be.

[indimuse]

52. what he attempted last night..Made him look like an idiot, to alot

of voters across this nation. sad.

[Labors of Hercules]

55. What's sad is anyone who thinks democracy is served by breaking party rules.

That's what's sad.

What other rules would y'all be willing to break? State law? Federal law? The Constitution itself?

[HCE SuiGeneris]

57. In Hilly world, it's "ready to make shit up from Day 1".

[kentuck]

59. Party rules are hardly equivalent to the Constitution...

Are they?

[Labors of Hercules]

61. Sure they are. They both regulate and are regulated by an electoral process.

and by virtue of that fact, Legally, they are more analogous than many other bodies of common law.

[indimuse]

65. Like campaigning in FL??Or holding Press Conferences in FL??

Those ROOLZ? How about , Just plain ole DON'T COUNT THE VOTES...CUZ it would reveal I"M A LOSER!! JUST LIKE BUSH!! That is is DISGRACE to OUR Democracy! WHO in the DEM party does NOT want to count the VOTES? I give you BARACK H OBAMA...That's WHO! and this BITCH!

[nichomachus]

64. I don't know about that, but you seem to be

the expert on making yourself look like an idiot.

[Raven]

2. Is walking on hot coals next? n/t

[fascisthunter]

4. It's Just Not Enough for Barack, Apparently

Something tells me Hillary was a very spoiled child growing up that did some really shitty things to people for just saying "no" to her.

[DJ13]

3. Who has the greatest likelyhood of being the nominee at this point?

If you care about keeping the Republicans out of the WH for another fours years, you'll stop the charade that Hillary can still win.

[Sulawesi]

5. Well, technically, McCain is not their nominee either.

HRC has no greater chance for the white house than Huckabee does at this point. It is over.

[kentuck]

Probably true.

:-) But I'm just saying, he is not the nominee, yet.

[theboss]

17. You are never the "Nominee" in capital letters until the convention

He is, however, the Presumptive Nominee. And being "The Presumptive Nominee" means behaving exactly as you would as "The Nominee."

If I am Obama, I never mention Hillary's name again until she concedes. I refuse to answer questions about her and say "I'm only going to talk about my opponents - John McCain and the Republicans."

[kentuck]

20. True.

And Hillary would be doing the same if she were in his position as the "presumptive nominee".

[theboss]

23. He's trying to transition into a general election campaign - which absolutely has to happen soon

However, he's trying to pivot with Hillary hanging on his ankles like an overpowered defensive back.

[MonkeyFunk]

19. Not really

McCain has enough delegates to win at the convention.

As of today, Obama does not.

Huckabee is mathematically eliminated. Clinton is not.

[kentuck]

22. But, if there were some problem, healthwise or otherwise with McCain..

Before the Convention, the Repubs would not hesitate to nominate another candidate. And the same would hold true for the presumptive Democratic nominee. They are not officially the nominee until the Convention is over.

[MonkeyFunk]

51. True

But McCain is the presumptive nominee. Obama is not yet the presumptive nominee.

[Sulawesi]

24. The delegates vote at the convention, until they vote, he is not the nominee...he will be, and

so will BO.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

37. The SD's will not overturn the pledged delegate count.

There's a zero % chance of that happening.

Obama is the nominee.

Parse, fudge, equivocate, hedge and obfuscate all you want. It's a done deal.

[fascisthunter]

6. Yeah... Hillary Should Cover for McCain

then we'll know who our real nominee is :sarcasm:

[grantcart]

7. you keep saying your an Obama supporter but you ad like a Clinton

Obama has 1963 delegates who are committed to him the other 62 are easily identified. (5 add ons this week alreay committed for example).

he has '9 Pelosi' Delegates

he has 9 uncounted edwards delegates

he will continue to get pledged delegates from Montana/SD and Puerto Rico which if they were split evenly would be another 40 pledged delegates

Then there is the pool of 211 super delegates which he has been getting at 70%.

His magic number is only 61

[seriousstan]

10. You spell like a 1st grader. ADD, that's how you spell it unless you have it.

[apocalypsehow]

16. So, you're DU's official spell-checker now, are you? Nice to know.

:eyes:

[seriousstan]

21. Only when people lead with a phrase such as "you ad like a Clinton".

[Starbucks Anarchist]

25. The period goes inside the quotation marks.

[kentuck]

28. Are you sure about that?

:-)

[Starbucks Anarchist]

29. Yes, I do it for a living.

[kentuck]

31. When do the quotation marks go inside of the period?

??

[Starbucks Anarchist]

33. They don't.

Although exclamation points and question marks do go outside the quotation marks sometimes, depending on the sentence.

[kentuck]

35. As someone once said,

Don't argue "with an authority." :-)

[Starbucks Anarchist]

36. Heh.

;)

[apocalypsehow]

12. I've noticed that, too. The OP is one of those "I'm an Obama supporter, BUT..." types. n/t.

[kentuck]

18. You don't know me very well, do you?

When he gets the 61 votes needed, he will then be the presumptive nominee. I try to be honest and give the Hillary supporters the benefit of the doubt and to recognize what they are thinking in keeping this race going forward. If it were to go to the Convention, there could be a lot of arm-twisting and horse-swapping and the Clintons should not be discounted in those fields of expertise. They may change a few minds, especially those of some Super Delegates.

[Cha]

54. Giving them the benefit of the doubt

is letting hilary get away with her lies..she's not held accountable and she won't stop until she destoys what she's set out to.

<snip>

"Hillary's latest greatest strategy is to convince her followers that they were robbed of their nomination because "elites" in Washington, including the Democratic elites (read: Superdelegates), hate women (I guess that's news to Nancy Pelosi). Now, what possible reason is there for Hillary to latch on to this new strategy? Because she's planning on leaving the election in the next 3 weeks and ending things on a high note? Because she thinks she can win 90% of the vote and 90% of the remaining Superdelegates by telling Democrats that they're a bunch of bigots? Hillary has stopped the personal attacks against Obama, but that wasn't because she finally realized she can't win, and that in the meantime she was simply hurting the party. Hillary stopped attacking Obama because she realized that she can't win BY ATTACKING OBAMA. She's found a new foil, sexism, and she has a new plan she's going to ride all the way to the convention. And she's told us as much all along, but no one wanted to believe her.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6063271

[DemVet]

63. And you spell "add"...

...like an Obama supporter. :beer:

[Stop Cornyn]

8. It's not summer yet, but we can still wear short sleve shirts when we get hot.

[Ian_rd]

11. But don't you dare wear white before Easter! NO!

[Double T]

9. Let's get rid of the pledged AND super delegates.

The candidate with the MOST POPULAR VOTES wins the nomination. Democrats ought to try REAL and TRUE Democracy.

[Occam Bandage]

14. We can do that next time. This time around, we had caucuses.

[Double T]

26. We sure do. Look where it has landed US!

A straight up popular vote with ALL STATES and US POSSESSIONS participating on the same day would put an END to this nonsense.

[kentuck]

30. I rather like this system.

It's the most democratic we have seen, in my opinion. Otherwise, we forfeit the selection process to the bigwigs with the most money that can buy all the ads in all the big states to guarantee they are the nominee right out of the gate. I do not like that idea...

[Double T]

40. It appears to me that the RW owned and operated MSM has had a HUGE HAND..........

in guiding the selection of BOTH PARTIES candidates. The RW MSM is NOT going to pick my candidate.

[Zhade]

48. if we did, Obama would still win - he's ahead in THAT irrelevant metric, too.

NT!

[NYCGirl]

13. THE POPULAR VOTE IS BOGUS. NT

[stahbrett]

15. Then John McCain is not the Republican nominee

By your logic, even if Obama HAD 2,025 right now he wouldn't be the nominee, because technically the delegates could change their minds in Denver.

[kentuck]

27. That is true.

For example, if something were to happen to our presumptive nominee, Obama, or there was an indictment on criminal charges or some such act, then they would have the chance to change their votes in Denver. True. I'm not suggesting that anything like that would happen but it is possible, however unlikely.

[Lucky 13]

32. Yes he is.

[kentuck]

34. No, he's not.

When he gets the 2025 votes at the Convention, he is the nominee. He will be the presumptive nominee up until that time.

[Bread and Circus]

38. At least you are sticking with the 2025 number. He's very close.

[kentuck]

42. He's very close.

Yes. But he's not there yet.

[Bensthename]

39. Neither is McCain. And tomorrow isnt here yet.. But they will be.

[madrchsod]

41. hillary is going to win this yet.....

the super delegates are going to put her over the top in delegate count....no doubt this will be the biggest come back in political history...rock on hillary all the way to the whitehouse!!

[Perry Logan]

43. So there's still hope for the party?

[kentuck]

44. Now that is optimism...

In the face of insurmountable obstacles. :-)

[Zhade]

49. Keep dreaming, Obama will have earned the nomination when you wake up.

NT!

[Gore1FL]

45. Actually he has 1656.5 pledged delegates and 1963 delegates overall.

Hillary has to win 82.5% of the remaining delegates to stop him. At least a dozen SD's are off the table because thye have committed to going with the Pledged delegate winner. 36 delegates (a low ball estimate) are off the table out of those pledging in PR, SD and MT.

(This would mean a 50-50 tie in MT and SD, and a 63-37 Clinton romp in PR.) It also assumes that none of the remaining Edwards pledged delegates commit.

Giving Hillary 46 from those contests, Obama the low ball 36 figure and adding just 12 SD's who have committed to go with the pledged delegate winner, that leaves Hillary needing merely 100% of the SDs remaining after that.

[kentuck]

50. That is all true.

But, she started with about a 150 plus super delegate lead before the race really began. Just in the last week or two has Obama passed her in the Super Delegate count. It's not likely that she will get the 83% of remaining delegates but it's not impossible. As I said before, he is not the nominee yet...

[Zhade]

46. He leads in EVERY metric. clinton is broke. He's the presumptive nominee.

All that remains is for it to become official, which it will soon.

[thoughtcrime1984]

47. Novelty? That is belittling him.

75K supporters showed up for him in Portland, is that novelty? I think 2 mostly Appalachian states that went big for Hillary are clouding your opinion. He did very well in Oregon, just as he has in countless "white" states. He is not the official nominee yet, but the writing on the wall has become clear to most. I agree with dispensing of the SD's, as they have not been helpful to this process one bit.

[kentuck]

53. Maybe so...?

But Hillary has done much better near the end of this campaign, would you not agree? It is a "novel" idea to have a candidate that is so inspirational and intelligent and that connects with so many people, and a black candidate on top of that? And with a name like Barack Obama? Perhaps not?

[thoughtcrime1984]

56. End of the campaign as it pertains to Appalachia, the rest, not so much.

I do not like the campaign that she and Bill have run, and now I do not like them, either. I do not want her near the WH, and I don't think she has the best interest of our country at heart. She has said too many damaging things, and her surrogates continue to preen on Faux news, with McAuliffe and Davis kissing up to Karl Rove. THAT is not going to lead to any changes in our government. No thank you. I would like our party to unite, but that does not mean I want Hillary as VP. I would like for her to act like a Democrat, reign her people in, and help the party at all levels, just like all of the other good Democrats. I do not wish to be incendiary, but I will not mince words when it comes to how I feel about the Clintons.



Edit for spelling

[kentuck]

58. Appalachia covers quite a few states....

Not just KY and WV. But parts of OH, PA, NY, VA, TN, AL, MS, and GA... Be careful of what you wish to throw overboard.

[thoughtcrime1984]

60. Wouldn't be throwing anything overboard. I am not the one to decide these things, anyway.

I'll bet a twenty-spot that even without her on the ticket, albeit with her campaigning for him a bit, that he will win PA, NY, and be within the MoE in OH and VA, could go either way, in the GE. TN, AL, MS, and GA are probably not realistic wins for any Dem candidate in 2008. The Appalachian region does indeed have more bigotry than any other region in the US. I fight for Obama, because I believe he is the best we have to offer, period. I do not believe Hillary gives two shits about the people, I can't shake that feeling, as much as I wish I could.

[ProSense]

62. That's Hillary's argument. "Unless something happens...that scenario is highly unlikely."

What's going to happen?

Obama is 62 delegates away from 2025. He needs only 35 more pledged delegates (he has already clinched a majority) and 27 more superdelegates. After the last contest, it's highly likely that there will not be enough superdelegates remaining to help Hillary reach the goal. That means she cannot legitimately win. Seating FL and MI will not change the dynamics, Obama has clinched the majority of pledged delegates under the current scenarios being considered.

Saying he isn't the nominee yet, but highly unlike he will not be is the same as saying anything can happen.

Anything can happen: 200 of Obama's delegates could switch to Hillary or Obama could get eaten by a bear.

Both scenarios are highly unlikely.

[Jawja]

66. He will be.

It's Over. :hi: