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jmknapp Donating Member (381 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-08-04 03:37 PM
Original message
Buckeye ceiling?
I was poring over the Ohio election data from '96 and '00 and saw a pattern that is potentially disturbing (for fellow Kerry supporters).

In most counties, the total votes for Clinton in '96 were remarkably close to the total for Gore in '00. Statewide, Clinton got 2,148,422 votes and Gore only slightly improved upon that with 2,186,190 votes.

In contrast, Dole got 1,859,883 votes to Bush's 2,351,209, an increase of 491,326 votes.

The big difference between the two races? The presence of Perot. In '96, Perot got 483,207 votes in Ohio.

One reading might be that Democrats are stuck with about 2,200,000 votes max in the state, whereas Republicans (or Republicanoids like Perot) take the rest. Maybe Perot really was key to the Clinton victory in '96 (and '92). Clinton's supposed appeal in the white Appalachian areas (he took many of those counties) may be just a result of any "angry white folks" swinging to Perot.

Without such a spoiler, Gore suffered a 165,019-vote loss in Ohio, compared to Clinton's 288,539 vote plurality. Even if all of Nader's 117,857 votes had gone to Gore, the Democrat still would have lost by over 47,000 votes.

Since Nader shows no sign of going away this time, Kerry/Edwards are going to have to find a way to wrangle something like 165,000 votes from a group of Ohioans constitutionally opposed to voting Democratic.
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PROGRESSIVE1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-08-04 03:42 PM
Response to Original message
1. I don't know what to make of this.
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DeepModem Mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-08-04 03:54 PM
Response to Original message
2. Welcome to DU, jmknapp! So much of Ohio may as well be in the South...
that I'm afraid what you say makes sense.
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Feanorcurufinwe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-08-04 04:02 PM
Response to Original message
3. That fails to take into account all the Ohioans who have lost their jobs
Edited on Sun Aug-08-04 04:08 PM by Feanorcurufinwe
in the last three and a half years. It also doesn't take into account all the other ways Bush has fucked up as President and their effects on the electorate. People just don't automatically vote the way they voted in the past. There is a significant percentage of voters who are capable of thinking and changing their minds.



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NMDemDist2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-08-04 04:02 PM
Response to Original message
4. well then my friend, you'd better get out and start registering new
voters then hadn't you? And get all your friends to register new voters, and all the new voters need to register voters.


are you on the street with your registration forms yet?

that's what i'm doing here in Arizona and hundreds more like me.

good luck because I'd love to see Ohio (and Arizona) turn Blue
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Waverley_Hills_Hiker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-08-04 04:20 PM
Response to Original message
5. And the interesting thing is that the RR has a GOTV drive going on.
...they are trying to register new voters at their churches to broaden their base.

but thats interesting about the Perot factor playing here.
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olddem43 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-08-04 04:22 PM
Response to Original message
6. Ohio is basically a Repug state -
It only goes Dem when there is a landslide or other factors like Perot. We have to hope for a landslide. Nixon won it all three times. That should be evidence enough.
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Waverley_Hills_Hiker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-08-04 04:56 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. Ohio is the dark side for sure....
I dont think I lived in more conservative, conformist place (SW Ohio).

...I think I went into clinical depression when I moved here, becuase friends from out-of-state called me aksing about me as my letters must have sounded borderline suicidal.

Im better now, though.

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olddem43 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-08-04 05:13 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. I'm still here (in Hamilton Co.) and suffering for it.
Meeting another Dem here is about as rare as sighting a Sumatran Rhino on the street. The Repugs own and run everything, and they are so corrupt. But of course you know this.
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jmknapp Donating Member (381 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-08-04 05:19 PM
Response to Reply #6
10. Basic Republicanism
AZ Dem: Good suggestion about voter registration drives--I will check the Ohio Democratic Party site.

OldDem:

You're right Ohio usually goes Republican, but I wouldn't call it a "basically" Republican state since there are so many cross-currents and the margin is usually close. Like Gore lost by 4% and Nixon won three times with 6%, 2% and, OK, once by 21% (damn 1972).

It's a question how will Kerry get that few percent extra to put him over the top. That's why Edwards is a brilliant choice IMO to lure some of those Perot-style independents in Appalachia.

The book "Nine Nations of North America" places the effective Mason-Dixon line at US Hwy 40, practically bisecting Ohio. So good call on much of Ohio being basically in Dixie.

It's interesting that every major city in Ohio (Columbus, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Toledo, Akron, Dayton) went for Gore--Cincinnati even in GOP-infested Hamilton County. I suppose because of the urban black vote. The problem is how to reach that Confederate-flag decal (or more politely NASCAR) set out in the farm country--just as Howard Dean noted, unfortunately. So can Edwards do that? Maybe.

On the other side of the war between the states there seems to be a lot of potential on the African American side of the ledger. Cuyahoga County went overwhelmingly for Gore in '00 (167,000-vote margin) but had one of the lowest turnouts in the state--57% (574,782 voters out of 1,010,726 registered). Black folk are sitting the elections out in droves. There is also shall we say selective disenfranchisement. Bush took Hamilton County by 11% even though urban Cincinnati went for Gore, and many blacks were purged off the voter rolls.

There is all kinds of hardball going on this state. Even within the Republican party, as the recent scandals in state political funding show. Contact sport indeed.
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Waverley_Hills_Hiker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-08-04 05:29 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. Thats a good book..Nine Nations...the NASCAR set in applachia
..nine nations is a .neat popularization of cultural goegrpahy.


,,,the NASCAR set in the applachian part of the state will go Dem if the right Dem is running....they are the ones who kept Stirckland in office and defeated Cremeans.

The NASCAR set in the rural flatlands of western and SW Ohio...forget them.



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sundancekid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-08-04 09:18 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. sounds like we need to quit giving up on our powerful Afro-American vote;
that constituency felt totally ignored by the Gore campaign, and their lowest turnout speaks volumes -- so I say, let's PARK the BIG DOG (among others like Rev. Jackson and Rev. Sharpton, or even P. Diddy) in Ohio for a few days and weeks where/when it will do the most good!!!! DUH! Imagine that, voters want to feel like they matter in the process.
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JPJones Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-08-04 04:48 PM
Response to Original message
7. One word - turnout
In Ohio, the voting age population was 8,433,000 in 2000. Of these, 7,537,822 were registered to vote (89.4%). Of these, only 4,701,998 bothered to vote (62.4% of registered voters).

http://www.fec.gov/pages/2000turnout/reg&to00.htm

As long as the Dem-leaning voters are pissed off enough to vote, Ohio is a Kerry state.
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Radical Activist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-08-04 09:27 PM
Response to Original message
13. The issue is Trade, WTO/NAFTA
Ohio lost a lot of jobs to those free trade deals. That explains the big vote for Perot. Gore and Clinton didn't represent the #1 concern of many Ohio voters in an adequate way because they support the WTO/NAFTA.
Democrats should not be supporting these agreements.
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