Obama can't win the general election?

[liberalcommontater]

I fully support Hillary Clinton, but I first supported John Edwards. If Barak Obama is the nominee I will support him. However, I am seriously concerned about his electability.

A Democrat must win in November. What if Obama can't? These two quotes are from cannonfire.

This is from Left Coaster:
Let's close with some observations on Nebraska. Nebraska held a primary yesterday not just for the Republican party but also for the Democratic party - the latter being irrelevant when it comes to delegates but important to assess the impact of caucuses v. primaries. When Nebraska held its Democratic caucus on Super Tuesday (Feb), the turnout was around 38760 and Sen. Obama won the caucus 68%-32%, giving him a popular vote margin of almost 14000 votes. Yesterday, the primary attracted 93161 voters and the result was 49-47% in favor of Sen. Obama, with Mike Gravel taking up the remaining 4%. In other words, a 36-point caucus victory was reduced to a 2-point primary victory for Sen. Obama along with a much lower popular vote margin of just ~2600 votes.

This is from Anglachel:

In contest after contest, we see him failing to turn out the massive numbers that his allegedly unstoppable movement says they command. We see dominance in highly restrictive caucuses. We see him turning out super-majorities of AA voters. We see him dominating urban areas where you have upper income liberals. We see the college aged children of those liberal families voting in university areas.

Help me out here to see what I am not seeing. If this is true and he loses the states in the GE that he won by caucus and he loses some of the big states won by Hillary, where does victory come from?

Look also here at the electoral college projections:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

It looks like Obama will be the nominee, but is that a sure defeat?

[DearAbby]

1. Thanks for your concern

that's right America wants 95 more years of war, a failing economy and high fuel prices...and tack onto that a ultra conservative supreme court...people are going to vote for McCain instead of Obama....:eyes:

[liberalcommontater]

7. It's a long time until November. Many things can change.

I hope they change for the better for Obama, the Democrats, and the country.

[DearAbby]

15. You believe McLame is going to change?

people who claim they will vote for GOP because they are pouting their chosen candidate didn't make the cut...are frankly childish. You deserve what you get...after all it was all about you...right?

What is going to change? Obama and Clinton policies are almost identical. Both are Democrats. The Democratic message hasn't and will not change. I just don't like Clinton's style. Its time for a change...Its time to hand the Mantle off to the next generation.

[liberalcommontater]

18. No, but Obama's negatives,

percieved negatives, inexperience and experience will all be used against him. This could go well for us or really bad. I don't favor him and have never bought the new politics message. I won't vote for McCain, but even a few Clinton supports who stay home could spell real trouble for his chances. What should be an easy victory given Bush and McCain will be much more difficult I predict.

I deserve what I get...Clinton supporters deserve what we get...talk about childish...neener neener.

I hope Obama wins, but if he doesn't what good would it do to say I told you so. We will all be fucked.

[DearAbby]

21. Those who will vote for McCain instead of Clinton

Deserve exactly what they will get...and yes they are being childish.

And you seem to believe Hillary Clinton has zero negative polls? It is much higher than Obama's. The GOP has had 16 yrs hating her, nothing will stir the GOP base more, and LORD KNOWS McLame can't stir up any kind of motivation, They would come out in droves to vote against her.

But thanks so much for your concern.

[liberalcommontater]

25. Superior attitudes among comrades are pathetic.

and dangerous to our success in the fall. The sooner Obama supporters realize we are all in this together the better.

[DearAbby]

37. Well I can see how they could mistake McCain with Clinton's

policies, they are indentical right? So it's easy to vote for McCain if Clinton doesn't get the nod...right? I can see now, how it would be so easy to vote for McCain than to ever vote for Obama....Well forgive me for my mistake :sarcasm:

This is fucking crazy. People who say this are not really democrats. I wouldn't want to be associated with them anyway. Good riddance. :hi:

[MilesColtrane]

65. Let's talk negatives then.

By way of the Favorable/Unfavorable spread of each candidate.

These come from RealClearPolitics.com and they are the average of several polls.

John McCain-Fav...48.5 Unfav...38.5 Spread +10.0

Barack Obama-Fav...51.5 Unfav...38.5 Spread +13.0

Hillary Clinton-Fav...46.8 Unfav...46.0 Spread +.08


Hillary Clinton has the slimmest favorable rating of any of the candidates. As many people like her as dislike her, and her continuing scorched earth campaign will continue to erode that fraction into negative territory.

[liberalcommontater]

66. Good point...

I actually think that Hillary wears better as she campaigns. Do you think Obama has this quality or do people like him less?

[Nitrogenica]

2. He's going to fight hard, and so are we. It's on now!

[liberalcommontater]

8. As I have said many times, the Dems

must win in November no matter who is the nominee.

[Goodnevil]

36. IF the dems lose the 2008 presidency

the party may go the way of the Whigs.

[Douglas Carpenter]

3. Rasmussen Markets data gives Sen. Obama a 61.1% chance of winning in November

" Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 61.1% chance of winning in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). "

"State polls for the Obama-McCain match-up have recently been released for Virginia, North Carolina, Oregon and Michigan (see summary of recent state-by-state results). The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. "

"New polling data shows that Democrats are now trusted more than Republicans on all ten key issues tracked regularly by Rasmussen Reports. Democrats even have the edge on national security issues. This comes as confidence in the War on Terror has dropped sharply over the past month. Just 22% give the President good marks for his handling of the situation in Iraq. "

"Rasmussen Reports believes the race is over and that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. "

link:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Rasmussen which has frequently been critisized for having a Republican bias provides a lot of data based on polling and trending:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

.

[Labors of Hercules]

4. The markets do not lie...

and I promise you those numbers are going nowhere but UP!

[liberalcommontater]

10. I hope you are right.

[GoesTo11]

5. Oh well, can't do anything about it now!

Sorry you're worried about a sure defeat. Too bad the election's over.

[liberalcommontater]

6. I hope he wins. If he does not we are all still in the soup.

[GoesTo11]

14. The GE is separate from the primary

Obama ran brilliantly to win the primary according to the nature of the primary contest.

I have a hard time seeing McCain running so good a campaign. He'll have a bunch of competing old-school consultants warring with each other over which crude, well-known, cliched ploy to use.

If HRC wants Obama to win, she'll really work to get her supporters behind him and he'll win.

[liberalcommontater]

19. Agreed, I hope she does.

[slinkerwink]

9. that was a beauty contest, and people knew it wouldn't count. That's the difference.

[SoonerPride]

11. Then work harder

Redouble you efforts.

double your donations.

Make change happen.

[TheDonkey]

12. I don't care about your uneducated, alarmist, negative ramblings.

[Texas Hill Country]

50. you had better care, that sentiment represents half the party.

[BzaDem]

13. You're talking to a wall.

Most people here are so biased and deluded that they think Obama has no electability problems. They think because McCain has bad, conservative policies, he won't be elected (just like Bush lost both times). The people objectively analyzing electability realize that he has significant problems in the electoral college math (it's just that most of them don't go to DU). But regardless, we will all work to help solve these problems and get him elected in November. We have to try our best.

[liberalcommontater]

20. Agreed, thanks for seeing clearly. I always say...

in situations like this...I could be wrong, but I don't think so.

[Texas Hill Country]

52. i agree. i hope for a dem, but i am very concerned about electibility

[Goodnevil]

16. I have a theory

that Obama's biggest problem is bridging the age gap. I think he's going to have the biggest hurdle in convincing elderly people and 60 + boomers to vote for him.

Many more of these people will have a harder time voting for a black man for President. I'm sure that comment will spark contraversy...but keep in mind that I'm not talking about ALL older Americans.

That's where I would focus my efforts if I were him...in the mighty halls of the AARP.

[liberalcommontater]

24. I don't think its the black thing at all...

it is experience and what we "know about him" or what we think we do not know that might be important and the meaning of his associations - they are just an electability issue when comparing him with Clinton. Against McCain, the message will be, sinister insinuations such as Ayers sleeping in the Lincoln bedroom. For many it may come down to comfort, are you more comfortable with MCain the person, or Obama in the white house?

[Goodnevil]

34. Excellent analysis

I think that is totally correct. Every time Obama has really been personal and shown himself and his family to the American people and the Press, the more comfortable they have become with him and the better off he has been. Hopefully he doesn't have any skeletons other than Wright.

That is a very astute observation.

/salute liberalcommontater

[liberalcommontater]

39. Thanks...

I've noticed your comments on other posts I've made. Why do some folks see a question about Obama's electability as an endorsement of McCain or an intention to vote for McCain? I will never vote for McCain. In fact, I don't think I should endorse anyone - they all end up losing. Whether Clinton somehow pulls out some sort of victory or Obama continues to cruise to the nomination we must have a democrat elected in November.

[kwenu]

60. I don't think I agree with the "it's not the black thing at all" argument.

We have George W. Bush as a prior example. The same "electability" (whatever that is) arguments being made about Obama certainly were more relevant to W. And W. flunked many of those tests wholesale. But you never heard "electability" arguments made about George W. Obama has a better political track record. George had no political track record other than being the Texas governor and George H.W.Bush's son. Texans know that our governors are constitutionally weak. The Texas Lt. Governor is regarded as the strongest political office in Texas. Obama was a state legislator and U.S. Senator. There seems to be a newly developed double-standard in the analysis of political candidates. I'll let you establish the "why" of the differences. I have my own opinion.

Not saying you don't have a point but I do think the "not at all" argument goes too far in light of the polling data saying race is a factor.

[AllentownJake]

17. Thanks for your concern

Obama did something that the GOP wanted to do and couldn't do for 16 years. They are scared shitless of this guy. So why don't you get on the bus and enjoy the ride.

[liberalcommontater]

26. Expressing concern about electability can be done from inside the bus.

[AllentownJake]

29. Express it

but work for the goal. Optimism wins. Whats the worse that happens your Heart is Broken. Being Pessimistic only makes you miserable till November.

[liberalcommontater]

40. I seem to chronically pick losers...

Gore - stolen, Kerry - stolen, Edwards - defeated, Clinton - all but defeated. So, while I have not been happy I would not call it miserable. My greater misery would be if the Republicans win in the fall. I agree that we must elect a democrat in Nov and I heard today that we may very well pick up 20 more house seats. What an opportunity! There is hope to be had.

Another problem for the fall is McCain's move to appear so moderate and bipartisan. He is going to try to shift to being the candidate of conciliation and compromise. If people believe he can do this better than Obama, it could be a problem.

[Clear Blue Sky]

22. So much can and will change over the next six months.

Speculating is like trying to predict next month's weather. Time is much better spent making a strong case for our candidate. That's what it will take to win in November.

[liberalcommontater]

27. Agreed.

[AtomicKitten]

23. Well, you'll just have to be content hoping you'll get to say 'I told you so.'

[liberalcommontater]

28. I'd rather not. That would be a sad day for all of us...

Clinton, Edwards and Obama supporters.

[AtomicKitten]

32. Barack is going to blow the doors off the body politic; I'm sorry you can't see that.

But your concern is duly noted. Oy.

[liberalcommontater]

41. Me too.

[Bake]

55. If that means "landslide," please show me specifically the states

He's not going to win the South. He's not going to win Florida. He's probably not going to win out West. Where's the landslide -- "blowing the doors off."

Bake

[Texas Hill Country]

48. agreed

[ginchinchili]

30. He's a weak candidate, for sure. What will determine the outcome of the GE...

will be if McCain proves to be weaker. Objectively speaking, McCain has proven himself to be more than just another politician, both in his military service and repeatedly taking positions unpopular within his own party. I'm certainly more impressed with him as a human being than I am Obama. It's just that he's with the wrong political party. I'm not sure if I can cast a vote for him or not, but I'm certain that I won't endorse the novice Obama with my vote. He's proven nothing except that he's ambitious.

[JoFerret]

31. Thanks for the electoral college map

scary stuff.

[liberalcommontater]

42. Sure. I used it in 04 and 06 and thought it was one of the best.

[JoFerret]

58. Got it bookmarked

.

[DU GrovelBot]

33. ## DON'T DONATE TO DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND! ##

==================
GROVELBOT.EXE v4.1
==================



This week is our second quarter 2008 fund drive. Democratic Underground is
a completely independent website. We depend on donations from our members
to cover our costs. Whatever you do, do not click the link below!

[VotesForWomen]

35. he's lost almost 1/2 of dems (who he claims are racist), but he thinks he's going to win the GE?

much of his winning margin has come from STATES THAT DEMS WILL NEVER GET IN THE GE!!!!!! I think dems are in for a rude awakening in Nov.

[liberalcommontater]

43. My fear exactly.

As I said, I support Clinton, but I support a dem in the WH more. I think Obama will have real problems getting elected. I think he is weaker than Gore was in 2000 and Kerry was in 2004.

[moobu2]

53. Exactly.

This is one time I wont get any enjoyment out of saying “we tried to tell you”. Sad..

[WA98070]

38. In Washington, he smashed her in the caucuses, handily beat her in the primary...

It's a different dynamic. In the GE most people will vote D or R based on all sorts of things. Race, age or gender among them. Hillary has more negatives than Obama. It is the anti-Hillary dems that found a leader in Obama.

If he doesn't win it's the machines and caging anyway.

[liberalcommontater]

44. Yes, precisely...

Election fraud, caging, vicious ads...If it is close, we are in real trouble.

[JoFerret]

64. without a doubt

...and all the wishful thinking in the world won't.....

[book_worm]

45. Oh knock it off, he'll win.

Several recent polls show him ahead and doing better than Hillary. Just give it a break.

[BlooInBloo]

46. Your concern is noted.

[Texas Hill Country]

47. i asked a similar question the other day... good luck getting actual answers. they still prefer to

slam Clinton, even if that is not germaine to the question presented.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

49. What if?

[kwenu]

51. Every legitimate sign regarding the feeling of the electorate says the Republicans are in trouble.

This hasn't changed. MS-01.

[moobu2]

54. Only way Obama can win is if the pukes completely implode

not just in a little trouble.

[kwenu]

57. They've pretty much imploded but it seems Hillary fans are disappointed

by such news. They want to use the scaremongering tactics of an Obama loss.

[liberalcommontater]

61. Once Hillary is out, what then...

No one I know will be happy with a loss in the Fall. Just because we want to discuss what appears to us to be serious problems with our soon to be candidate does not mean we wish him to lose or McCain to win. He will have real opposition and not just from McCain and the Republicans, but their allies. Obama is unknown to most of the country. Many folks will be considering him seriously for the first time. The political hot house of the primaries will give way to the more serious consideration of the general election. Time for the heavy lifting since it is for all the marbles.

[kwenu]

62. Obama is not unknown. That is garbage. Who was George W. Bush when he ran for the presidency?

The bottom line is that once Hillary is gone, we can then figure out what is true in terms of the type of race he has to run. Hillary supporters are not going to be honest about who they will support as long as Hillary is in the race.

McCain is flawed and CASH poor. Nobody talks about that because of the preoccupation with Obama/Hillary but McCain is very much in trouble.

[liberalcommontater]

63. Agreed that McCain is in trouble and he is not the only one...

3 very conservative house seats went Dem. 20 or more in November!

What I was saying is that those of us who watch this closely have our ideas fairly firmly established about the candidates. John Q Public not so much. A certain percentage of the voting population does not even pay attention until the convention or after.

I would say more are paying attention this year, but there are still many who will have their defining moment on their choice much later.

[ShortnFiery]

56. Oh Brother, more "concerned" threads?

:eyes:

[Rosa Luxemburg]

59. Don't worry Darling

we'll be fine, just fine!