It's now about how and when Hillary chooses to leave the campaign playing field.

[cali]

Next week Obama will win Oregon by double digits. He'll lose KY but not by as much as WV and he'll still pick up delegates there. He's now only 140 delegates away from 2025. He'll pick up at least 45 from KY and Oregon. He'll pass the Pelosi club number triggering the endorsements of at least 9 SDs. Clinton is over 300 delegates away from 2025 and she'll still be around 250 away from it after next Tuesday.

Will she wait until after the RBC meeting on May 31st? Will she wait until Obama has the requisite number of delegates? Will she wait until after June 3? Where will she announce she's suspending her campaign? NY? DC? Because it is coming and she won't hang on until the convention. She simply doesn't have the resources.

My guess is she'll announce in NY between the 20th and the the 25th. She knows she's not going to get what she wants out of the RBC and that continuing isn't feasible. I don't think there's anything for her to gain by staying in for PR, SD and MN. My bet is that Obama will have close to 2025 within a couple of days after Oregon. In any case, Hillary will be out well before the summer solstice.

It's going to be fascinating to watch this play out. I think Hillary will withdraw with class and dignity and strongly back Obama.

[saltpoint]

1. Here's hoping she will opt for the dignity exit instead of the

smashed china exit.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/13/hillary-agonistes-why-doe_n_101618.html

[Yael]

2. After the first vote at the Convention is my guess

[cali]

3. Yael, how does she keep going for 3 months when she's 20 million

in debt? How does she keep going after Obama reaches 2025? How does she keep going when her delegates keep defecting to Obama? It's really about what's possible.

[rurallib]

4. I wonder how she will buy TV ads etc?

Do vendors have a right to ask for the money up front? I'd like to think if it was my business and I knew these guys were in financial straits I would ask for cash. There are still merchants here in Iowa waiting for payment.

[cali]

6. Sure, vendors can ask for payment up front

in any case, she is now so in debt that it's no longer feasible for her to go to the convention.

[polpilot]

5. It's very quiet in the Clinton house this morning.

[K Gardner]

14. Isn't it nice??!!

[Yael]

20. She doesn't think past today

She will drain every bit of savings they have and keep on going.

[cali]

23. Nah. She won't. There's really no way for her to keep going.

And she doesn't want to be humiliated.

[Meshuga]

7. I would not doubt that she would make a huge fuss about MI and FL

And not drop until the convention.

[cali]

9. Again, how does she do that when she's 20 million in the hole?

It takes money to keep a campaign going for 3 1/2 more months. There's no way she'll get what she wants out of the RBC- there aren't enough Clinton loyalists on the committee, and what will she do if Obama reaches 2025? How could she keep going after that?

[Meshuga]

13. But she keeps rejecting the 2025 as the number to lock the nomination

I know, she will not get what she wants out of the RBC but she will make a big fuss. That's my fear.

[Reterr]

18. I have been wondering about that with regard to Ron Paul

McCain has the requisite number of delegates and is the GOP nominee but Paul is still running? I mean everytime I see the results of a new primary it is Obama x%, Hillary y% and Ron Paul whatever percent corresponds to crazy libertarian storm-fronters or whatever. I guess there is nothing to stop someone from staying on the ballot :shrug:. Eventually you will just be ignored. I think that is what would happen if Obama made it to 2025. If Hillary kept running, I presume Obama would start campaignign for the GE as McCain is doing and she could just keep running I guess. I wish she wouldn't-I hate the campaign the Clintons have run. But, unlike many on this board, I don't think they are the epitome of evil. I have lots and lots of problems with them, growing by the day,but Hillary is going to be one of our senators from a major. I would like tosee her exit with some dignity.

[cali]

21. Paul is on the fringes of the repuke party. Hillary is not in the same position

wrt the dem party.

[Reterr]

25. I meant the technicalities.eom

[indimuse]

8. Is it true ..

Hillary has ample $$ in her GE coffers, she's not allowed to touch unless she's the nom? And the reverse for Obama? honest question...

[cali]

10. Yes, it's true that Hillary has a substantial amount of money that's

designated for the general election. I understand that Obama has less but his fundraising prowess is hardly in doubt.

[indimuse]

26. thx!

hmm...

[cali]

28. how does that help her?

[ShortnFiery]

11. IMO, HRC and her Devil's Rejects will scorch the earth all the way to the Convention in August.

Bill and Hillary Clinton, et., al., TRULY believe that they *own* the Democratic Party and will follow their delusions all the way to Denver. :(

[cali]

12. One more time: She doesn't have the resources.

Being 20 million+ in debt limits her ability to continue. It's that simple.

[K Gardner]

15. She's meeting with donors today. Wonder what they'll tell her...

[cali]

17. I think we can guess that quite a few of them will demur.

They know it's over.

[Bonobo]

16. "I think Hillary will withdraw with class and dignity and strongly back Obama."

Way, way too late for that.

She has lost the respect of many of her backers. Her dignity is gone as well.

[cali]

19. Yeah, but she can redeem herself by

making a gracious speech and strongly backing Obama- at least in the eyes of many.

[Yael]

22. That is simply not her nature

If it were, she would have gone out on a high note today.

[cali]

24. She's complex- like most of. And she has the Clinton legacy to worry about

You're building her up into a cartoon figure of evil. She won't take it to the convention. I'd bet almost anything on that.

[Bonobo]

27. Yes, people are complex. We shall see.

Hi, Cali. Hope you're doing well.

Must be really getting lovely in your backdoor now :)