What West Virginia Tells Us About Obama In November

[Austinitis]

I mentioned this in the main thread on West Virginia, but I think this aspect of the West Virginia results deserves its own discussion. Up until now one of Hillary's major arguments has been that she attracts a demographic that Democrats absolutely have to win over to have any serious prospects in November. In 2004, Democrats won four of the five industrial great-lakes states by only a few percentage points (and lost the other state, costing us the election), and the white working-class demographic with which Hillary does so well is an important demographic in the population of each of these states.



Thus, the argument goes, if we conclude that Obama can't win over these voters we need to go with Hillary because that's the only way we have a serious chance in November.


That said, the main reply from the Obama camp thus far has been that Hillary's supporters will go over to Obama come November; that simply losing those voters against a Democrat in the primary doesn't indicate that Obama would lose them against a Republican in November.

Tonights results matter, then, because they, once and for all, put that reply to bed. There are two things to note about tonight's results:

First, West Virginia doesn't favor Hillary because it has its own unique demographic that heavily favors her; rather it favors her because http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/05/not_quite_yet_1.html">it has a greater percentage of the same demographic that favored Hillary in other states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan. That means that just as we were able to infer the way West Virginia would vote tonight based on the way the demographic had voted in other states, we can draw conclusions about that demographic from the way they voted in West Virginia tonight. What the high concentration of working class whites in West Virginia means is that the exit polls from tonight are our best sampling thus far of working class whites.


Second, the exit polls from tonight we awful for Obama's prospects in November. The exit polls indicated that http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21226014">44% of voters would only be satisfied if Clinton were the nominee. Worse, 53% of the electorate said that they would be dissatisfied with an Obama nomination. Moreover, a majority (51%) of voters thought that Obama was dishonest/untrustworthy while only 35% thought the same of Hillary. And it keeps getting worse because almost 50% of the electorate would stay home or vote for McCain if Obama is the nominee (only 26% would do this if Clinton was). Finally, a majority of voters (53%) said that Obama did not share their values (compare this to the 30% who said the same of Hillary).


To recap, then: The West Virginia exit polls are our best current evidence for what working-class white voters will do in the fall, and that evidence doesn't bode well at all for us if Obama gets the nomination. So even if you don't care about West Virginia itself, and even if you're willing to write it off in November to get Obama as the nominee, you should care about what West Virginia tells us that working class whites will do in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan.

[Occam Bandage]

1. Answer: It doesn't matter, because West Virginia is representative of nothing but WV.

[Austinitis]

10. See the link. WV tells us a lot about working-class white voters in states like PA, OH, etc.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/05/not_quite_yet_1.html

[Occam Bandage]

12. It tells us nothing that the actual polls and actual contests held in those states doesn't.

[Austinitis]

16. Yes it does, because the WV sample set is largely restricted to the voters we're talking about

The other states results are influenced by other demographics that we're not as worried about.

[Occam Bandage]

19. No, it doesn't. The polling in those other states shows us exactly how those demos voted.

If I want to know what PA folk will do, I'm going to look at the head-to-head matchups for PA, not the exit polls in WV.

[Austinitis]

26. Any evidence that they're thus restricted?

Like, you know, a link?

[Occam Bandage]

29. Yeah. Look at the exit polling for any state. It's broken down into demos. You want to see

what PA's working class did? Look at PA's exit polling. That would be just a mite bit more accurate than assuming that WV as a whole is going to vote the exact same way all blue-collar whites will.

You want to see how Obama and HRC stack up against McCain? Look at the head-to-head polls. That's a bit more accurate than looking at one narrow demographic in one state and ignoring the rest of the field.

[Austinitis]

33. Link? Because the MSNBC exit polls don't do that.

[Occam Bandage]

39. ...

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#PADEM

Want to see by race? First page. Want to see by income? See multiple breakdowns on the third page. Want to see by race/party affiliation? Fourth page. Want more in-depth coverage of race and racial viewpoints? Fourth/fifth page. Want to see urban/rural splits? Sixth page.

The only thing that WV can tell you that exit polling can't is who WV Democrats preferred on May 13th among the two Democratic candidates.

[Austinitis]

42. Please give me the link that shows:

1) The percentage of working class white voters who think Obama is honest/dishonest.

or

2) The percentage of working class white voters who will vote for Obama in the fall.

or

3) The percentage of working class voters who would be satisfied with either candidate.

Oh, wait, you can't... The link you gave doesn't have that info!

:eyes:

[Occam Bandage]

43. There of course is no such link. Nor, for that matter, is there any link showing

that West Virginians' opinions are representative of the political opinions of denizens of other states. Appalachia is not the Great Lakes/Rust Belt.

[Austinitis]

47. Yes there is because here it is

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/05/not_quite_yet_1.html

[Occam Bandage]

49. Er, no. That would be

one analyst's opinion piece, which he admits is a minority opinion, and in which he does not present a case for using the opinions of WV voters to paint other states' demographics.

[Austinitis]

54. See the quotes

West Virginia is 95% white, and one of the poorest states in the nation. Demographically, Pennsylvania's twelfth congressional district is a decent proxy of it. Clinton won Pennsylvania's twelfth by 46 points. A recent Rasmussen survey put her up 29 points in the Mountaineer State, with 17% undecided. Another poll had her up 40 points, with Obama under 25%.

Kentucky is not as poor or as white as West Virginia, but it is nearly so. Demographically, Kentucky falls somewhere between Ohio's sixth congressional district, which went for Clinton by 45 points, and the seventeenth, which went for her by 28 points. A recent Survey USA poll of the Bluegrass State had her up 34 points - with a staggering 72 point lead in the east, where Obama was winning less than 20% of the vote. Rasmussen recently had her up 25 points with 13% undecided.

[Occam Bandage]

56. That also does not address the point you are attempting to make.

He claims that a single small district in PA is roughly similar to WV for the single purpose of today's primary. He also claims two small districts in OH are roughly similar to WV for the single purpose of today's primary. Nowhere does he claim that WV is representative of large voting blocs in either state, nor does he claim that WV primary results are representative of general election behavior in other states.

[roguevalley]

68. Conceded: Hillary gets the racist vote everywhere.

[roguevalley]

64. Rendell said Obama will take Pennsylvania in the GE.

[Austinitis]

93. So? He has to.

[roguevalley]

63. WV tells us about WV. Their history of poverty and being fucked by the government

in terms of neglect and the rest is the bedrock of their discontent. Put pockets of racism out there and no black person will win. They had a choice of Obama and her. Seven per cent went to Edwards and he isn't even in the race anymore. They chose the lesser of two evils, her. We have not had WV in a generation and we won't get it. They signal nothing about any place else. EVen Ed Rendell said Obama will get Pennsylvania in the general election. Using an outlier state like this to formulate a theory that applies to every where else is wrong. You haven't even factored in the gigantic nationwide voter registration drive that Obama is doing. You are batting at ghosts here.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

83. WVa is like NO other state, 10 yrs behind the times, extremely poor

there are some hardworking people there, but there are people who haven't worked
since the coal mines closed in the 70s.

[skipos]

2. Baghdad Bob would LOVE your work! nt

[cliffordu]

17. LOL!!!! Snort!

[AllentownJake]

3. Obama is going to be the nominee

Barring a Godzilla attack.


So stop all your hating and get to working on getting a Democrat elected President

[neverforget]

4. If she is so much better, then how come she is losing in delegates

(pledged AND Super), states won, and popular vote?

[Occam Bandage]

5. Don't you know? The only metric that matters is Appalachian Blue-Collar White Voters.

[roguevalley]

71. And they are done speaking. They spoke and

so what. On to Oregon, Montana, South Dakota and so on.. I was not aware that so goes Appalachia, so goes America.

[Mariotti]

6. Being better has nothing to do with winning elections

Ask John Kerry against the worst of the worst, George W. Bush.
The best not always wins.

[tekisui]

7. I got the "Itis"

Someday soon you'll have to quit hitting the Democratic Nominee.

[book_worm]

8. So what did Obama's 20-70 point wins in MN, SC, VA, MS, LA, ME, VT,

MD, ID, HA, IL, WY, MS, AK, CO, GA, DC, KS, ND, NE and WA tell you?

[Austinitis]

11. He only got 20% of the white vote in MS. That doesn't help your case. n/t

[skipos]

22. Yes, the white vote is what is the most important.

The southern strategy worked well for Nixon, Reagan and the Bushs, and I can see why you are glad Hillary is using it.

[quantass]

58. Lets not forget that Hillary only got 10% of the AA vote...

and the AA vote is a very critical constituent for democrats to win in the GE

And when you look into the 20% of white vote he got you didnt mention that a large chunk were repubs that voted for Hillary because she was the easiest candidate to win in GE against McCain.

[True_Blue]

89. Don't forget the Hispanic vote

Hispanics are solid supporters of Hillary. McCain is popular with Hispanics also, but not as popular as Hillary. If Hillary doesn't get the nomination and it looks like she won't, they'll vote for McCain. I think this may be one of the reasons that around 50% of Clinton supporters say they'll vote for McCain.

[roguevalley]

73. fuck racists. fuck them. who needs their votes. You discount the huge white

vote he has gotten in other states. there are pockets of racism in this country that will not vote for black people. Fuck them.

[wvbygod]

90. Where do you come up with the racism charge?

20% white vote for the black candidate.
15% black vote for the white candidate.

Why would you see racism in the 20% vote and not the 15% vote?

[Boz]

9. 5 electoral votes offset by pickups in other states that have not been in play that he will take

People are comparing apples and oranges.

The 50 states versus the Big State plan.

All west virgina proves is Hillary is a republican

[Hawkeye-X]

13. So you're down to spamming?

OK then.

EDIT: Original post: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5954116&mesg_id=5954116

Not too original, either.

[tekisui]

15. They always have been.

I still haven't found a cure for austinitis.

[tekisui]

14. WV has about 40,000 Democratic Voters this Primary.

Less than a drop in the bucket.

[swishyfeet]

18. Exit polls said 61% were positively influenced by Bill

Seems to me Bill could get behind Obama in the general and we should be okay.

You can slice/dice any way you want...

[MadMaddie]

20. And I call bullshit....and here's why

- Those voters that voted for Hillary more than likely voted for the Republicans the last two elections.
- Let's say Hillary did win....she has managed to disenfranchise many voters of different stripes...they may not vote or they vote for McCain
- If Hillary comes out in her speeches from now until June and continues to class bait and race bait..you better believe that she will Not be able to pull the party together if she wins.
- Hillary has insulted the new young voters in favor of old money
- Hillary has managed to squander her money...if she disenfrancises the Obama voters with their money....she will not outspend McCain.

And finally, if WV can't understand Rev Wrights anger deriving from the era that he grew up in and the blatent racism that existed in the 40s and 60'sin states like WV then maybe we should not be counting too much on WV.

There are a lot of hardworking people across this country, all this banter about WV being special is bullshit, Americans of all walks of life are struggling in this economy.

[roguevalley]

74. wv is not a state we do well in. to say it is pivotal is delusional. its no more

pivotal than my state. By the way, Ted Stevens is toast in the fall. Don Young too. :)

[wvbygod]

92. two words

Woodrow Wilson.

[MadBadger]

21. It tells us that Obama wont win West Virginia in the GE

time to move on to the other 49

[Austinitis]

23. And that he won't win PA, OH, or MI n/t

[MadBadger]

28. You give me a bad case of Austinitis.

[Occam Bandage]

30. It says nothing about those states. It only says he won't win WV.

[Austinitis]

35. It says a lot about major demographics in those states.

The "nuh-uh" argument is probably one of the weaker arguments I've seen out of you ;)

[Occam Bandage]

41. According to nothing but your own assertion. WV is small, homogenous, and unrepresentitive. You're

doing your best to try to turn that into a positive, but frankly the argument that WV is a better bellwether for PA/MI/OH than PA/MI/OH are is laughable.

[depakid]

50. Fact is Obama did poorly in Ohio and Pennsylvania

and we don't know how he would have done in Michigan.

Seems to me the OP is correct- the demographic Obama's losing puts all those states and hence, the general election at serious risk.

Indeed, barring a McCain meltdown, my guess is that it'll be called early on when Pennsylvania votes come in.

[Austinitis]

51. It's a bellweather for important segments of the population of PA, OH, and MI

[Occam Bandage]

53. That's a pretty weak argument. Appalachia is not the Great Lakes/Rust Belt.

[Austinitis]

55. It still share important population segments.

Virginia isn't Mississippi, but we could tell how Mississippi was going to go by looking at what how African Americans voted in states like VA.

[Occam Bandage]

59. And your claim that WV is especially representative of *any* OH/PA/MI voters, especially as

pertains to GE behavior, is somewhere between a fantasy and a joke. WV is especially white, WV is especially uneducated, and WV is especially poor. Beyond that, you haven't even attempted to make a case.

[eridani]

95. People who think that racists are not also misogynist are delusional n/t

[Ice-9]

31. How do you know Senator Clinton would win those States?

I mean win them against Senator McCain, not win them against Senator Obama.

:shrug:

[Occam Bandage]

34. To the remaining Clinton supporters,

Clinton winning a primary is proof that she, and only she, can and will win that state against John McCain.

On the other hand, Obama winning a primary counts for nothing.

[Austinitis]

36. The exit polls, and not just the win, are the proof

[depakid]

52. Ya don't -and there a pretty good chance that she wouldn't

Republicans probably can't believe their luck in having to run against one of these two candidates.

[roamer65]

61. Obama will take MI.

The large turnout from the SE Mich(Detroit) Metro area will ensure that he wins. Mark my words. Michigan is NOT a swing state this year. It is solid deep blue.

[roguevalley]

78. and you aren't very well informed. Rendell said Obama will pick up Penn in the

GE.

[Occam Bandage]

24. Kind of ridiculous to try to present a small, homogenous red state as a GE bellwether.

[MadBadger]

He wont win West Virginia. Thats all this says. No Obama supporter is shocked.

[MadBadger]

27. He wont win West Virginia. Thats all this says. No Obama supporter is shocked.

[Austinitis]

37. It's an indicator for major PA, OH, and MI demographics.

[Occam Bandage]

Do you have evidence suggesting that WV voters vote along with those demographics?

[roguevalley]

79. only in your mind. rendell said Obama will take penn. read. it will help you.

[aasleka]

25. I am that demographic, Obama had me at purple, Boston 04

Shout out to my family in Clay City and Edmonton Ky, we argued about the election in August when I defended Obama and predicted Hillary's failure.

She simply has too much ego to work with anyone but her own way. She couldn't pass a healthcare reform with a Democratic Congress; she couldn't run a successful campaign having an advantage of name recognition and a wildly popular former President as her husband, she couldn't maintain fund raising besides having a huge machine and all the advantages, she couldn't pick the right people after having "all that experience for day one" she has booted ALL her top staff. She couldn't tell the truth or simply be herself, she has to be who she thinks the crowd in front of her wants her to be besides being an empowered strong intelligient woman. She has written less legislation in six years than Obama has in his first. What exactly qualifies her for President? Having been first lady? This woman has failed at almost everything she has done in public office to date.

What is her qualifications? She is for healthcare and education? WTF that's a no brainer, I bet she is for puppies too!

[stray cat]

32. Hillary losing Iowa proves she can't win white voters - NOT!

[AtomicKitten]

38. not a damn thing

[avenger64]

40. Why should North Carolina decide the race?

it's just another example of Obama winning a state that he can't win in November. West Virginia is very much in play in the general election.

One word: convention.

[Thrill]

67. Well Hillary can't win Wisconsin and Iowa in November based on your logic

[jbm]

75. Iowa was a caucus..

and caucus states aren't an accurate reflection of the voters. A lot of demographics don't turn out heavily for a caucus (older voters, people with young kids, lower level working class, etc). If Iowa would have been a primary, I would bet my house Hillary would have won it easily.

[Thrill]

76. No surprise. Cherry Picking states. Can't wait to hear your explanation for Wisconsin

Which the DEMS HAVE TO WIN.

[avenger64]

81. Your objection doesn't make sense ....

.... the Democrats won Wisconsin last time, they didn't win North Carolina or even come close. My point was, NC is a red state, and there's no way Obama is going to beat McCain there. Clinton could win WV.

[Thrill]

85. They didn't win WV. The last two times and won't this time either. So your logic makes NO

sense. I live in NC. And Obama has a better chance of beating McCain here than Hillary has of beating McCain in WV. As soon as the NRA comes to WV banging on Hillary. She'll get beat just like Gore there.

[roguevalley]

80. one word: lost. she lost and only a mediocre media keeps it going.

[avenger64]

82. Are you kidding me?

The media has kept Obama in it as the Anointed One, and has spent every waking minute the last 2 weeks telling us the election is 'over'. And it isn't.

To the convention!

[iamthebandfanman]

44. that fear based politics works?

id rather not have the vote of people who buy into that and lose than pretend they arent idiots just to win.

but thats just me.

[MonkeyFunk]

45. Working class white voters

don't matter to Obama fans. They think they can win with internet circle-jerkers and 18-year olds.

[Occam Bandage]

46. No. We realize that their votes count no more and no less than anyone else's, that

they are not the monolith that some attempt to present them as, and that primary results are not very good predictors of GE performance.

[eridani]

96. Keep on helping your candidate to certain defeat in November by

--constantly repeating REPUKE framing. Clinton supporters on this board have done nothing but campaign for the REPUKES since February.

[DogPoundPup]

48. Tells me Our Family Won't be vacationing in W. Va. anymore

We may still drive through the mountains but not spend any money in the state.

[mmonk]

57. We can't win without a heavy African American turnout.

Do you really think the new voters will not be alienated as well with a tactic that says the primary results will be overthrown. You're not thinking clearly.

[Gore1FL]

60. Your premise relies on all Hillary voters going to McCain

Are you really trying to equate them?

[ananda]

62. So these results tell us that..

.. lower and working class whites are
essentially racist and will vote stupidly
and insanely for McCain in November, against
their own best interests.

This is SO tiresome.

[Colobo]

65. Obama is the Dem nominee. Deal with it.

[DemBones DemBones]

72. Then McCain is the president. Deal with it.

Your use of a flattering photo of Barack and an unflattering one of Hillary is very childish.

[Thrill]

66. Tells me nothing. The Wisconsin Results tell me Obama will do marvelous in the GE

[Dr Fate]

69. Obama vs. McCain is different.

DEM on GOP aint DEM on DEM.

[jbm]

70. great post..thanks for the analysis!..n/t

.

[Austinitis]

88. Thank you

[farmbo]

77. What a silly premise...WVa is not like Ohio, Pennsylvania,or Michigan

Tonight means nothing.

WVa has 4% Black population. OH Pa and Mich have in the neighborhood of 13-15%, plus far more cultural diversity.

More importantly, those states had incumbent Governors with well-oiled political machines who had been feverishly committed to Hillary since last year...and who, frankly, swung these otherwise razor-thin margins into HRC's favor. What else explains HRC's dismal showings in Wisconsin, Minnesota and Illinois, where state party machines played no significant role?

Does anyone SERIOUSLY think that Strickland, Rendell or Granholm will be up there arm-in-arm with McSame--and fighting against Obama-- in November? Of course not.

We absolutely can cede WVa to the God guns & gays candidate-- McSame-- in November, yet still win OH, PA and Mich.

[Edgewater_Joe]

84. What It Says Is APPALACHIA WON'T VOTE FOR OBAMA

That's it. Case closed.

[donheld]

86. .

[noel711]

87. Austin..whatever, how can you compare PA and WV?

YOu are quite the simplifier... Remember what the sage Bill MOyers said about simplifiers....

There is no connection at all between PA and WV, except, in your opinion, a Hillary victory there
means that two states are exactly alike in demographic..No way.

Your logic is flawed. There are very few demographic similarities... Pennsylvania has a large population of African Americans. Pennsylvania has a large population of well educated middle class white people. Pennsylvania still has a more stable economy than other rust belt states.

It galls me that you can simplify "working class whites" as Hillary voters. Primary results cannot cross over into the General Election. And to say that the exit polls here are the best prediction for fall is bogus. West Virginia can only predict WEst Virginia, not the rest of the states. True democrats vote the party, not the candidate. Obama did very well with white working class voters in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Virginia, etc... check your facts before you oversimplify and look like a fool.

And stop cross posting your DailyKos diary here. It's really ignorant. Lack of creativity.

[TheDonkey]

91. Kerry would have lost w/o the black vote in those states we won. Hillary has not shown she can get

get the black vote. NEXT.

[CaptJasHook]

94. Do you have any degree in poll analysis? Or are you just making shit up?

[VotesForWomen]

97. wouldn't read *too* much into WV, but O has some serious problems with the electoral map, because mo

most of the states where he is strongest don't have a chance in heck of going blue in Nov, and as you noted, it is absolutely false to assume that O would automatically get all the states that hill won.

[davidpdx]

98. First, the premise, that WV is going to make a huge difference

is a flawed one. Yes, he needs to do better among working class people. Part of the results in WV can be attributed to two factors: 1) The Clinton brand name is very strong there (as evidenced by the fact Bill Clinton won the state twice); 2) There are a fair amount of people no matter how much you campaign to win them over that will not vote for an AA candidate. WV happens to be one of those states where the demographics play heavily against him. He has done better among working class in other states (for example Wisconsin, Missouri and Virginia).

Second, I've heard you claim that Obama did poorly in Ohio and Pennsylvania. The fact is Obama lost PA by 9.5% (still relatively close) and OH by .7% (only 23,000 votes) which is a razor this margin. In either of those states, with a five month general election it is very possible he could win.

[Austinitis]

99. The problem is

The fact is Obama lost PA by 9.5% (still relatively close) and OH by .7% (only 23,000 votes) which is a razor this margin. In either of those states, with a five month general election it is very possible he could win.

that it's not good enough for him to have a shot at winning those states - we need some assurance. If we lose Pennsylvania, it's over. The same goes for Ohio. We have to take all of those states.

[Beacool]

100. Let me put it succinctly:

He won't get the blue collar working class vote if his political life depended on it.

I knocked on enough doors and saw enough internal polls to see this pattern repeated over and over in the primary states.

Don't want to face reality? So be it.....

[Austinitis]

101. The problem is, they're dragging down our chances in the fall

when they don't face reality. We need to wake them up.