SUSA OR: Obama 54 (+4), Clinton 43 (-1)

[MadBadger]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport_main.aspx?g=94e9005d-d8d6-46e2-b09a-697a4e23a900

In a Democratic Primary in Oregon today, 05/12/08, 8 days until votes are counted, Barack Obama defeats Hillary Clinton 54% to 43%, according to a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted for KATU-TV Portland. Though the results are only slightly more in favor of Obama than SurveyUSA's most recent track point, released 11 days ago, before results of North Carolina and Indiana were known, there is movement in Oregon among women. 5 weeks ago, Clinton led by 7 among Oregon women. Today, Obama leads by 7. See the interactive tracking graph here. Among voters younger than Obama, Obama leads by 24 points. Among voters older than Republican John McCain, Clinton leads, but just barely, and by a lot less than she had. See the interactive tracking graph here. 4 in 10 of likely voters have already returned a ballot. Among the actual voters, Clinton and Obama tie. Obama's advantage comes entirely from the 6 in 10 likely voters who tell SurveyUSA they will return their ballot before 8 pm on Primary Day, but have not yet done so. All voting in Oregon is by U.S. mail. Ballots may be returned until 8 pm on 05/20/08.

[book_worm]

1. I think Obama will do better than that in Oregon in the end.

Survey USA seriously underestimted Obama's support in both NC and Indiana.

[MadBadger]

2. I agree that he will do better. They have Obama up only 1 with those who have already voted

I bet you hes up more.

[malik flavors]

3. SUSA polls tend to favor Clinton, so this could be good news for Obama.

Hopefully he can make up for a lot of the popular vote Hillary will net out of Kentucky and West Virginia, which could possibly be close to 300,000 if she exceeds expectations.

That's all I'll be watching for tomorrow, how much popular vote she gets.

[4themind]

4. Don't forget the turnout

could be higher than in other states due to the mail in ballot system, I think it'll almost be enough kentucky and cut big into WV as well. Although the numbers for those who have already turned in their ballots vs. those who still have not is interesting...

[swishyfeet]

8. I wonder if the "it's over" talk...

(guilty)

Will impact turnout... My ballot was mailed in last week, but I must say, things have mellowed a bit since IA/NC.

[4themind]

9. Very good question

and one that I forgot to consider, maybe we can let hillary work on getting the message out (just that small part of it) =)

[quantass]

5. Yeeehaaa!

[AtomicKitten]

6. I'm hoping Obama claims the title on 5/20 with this win and the SDs.

Time to turn his game face to McCain without worrying she's going to shiv him in the shower.

[hogwyld]

7. As an Oregonian, I think he'll do very well

west of the Cascade mountains where the most people are. Hillary will do well in the more rural areas of the state. He's going to carry the Willamette Valley from Portland down to Eugene.

[DerekJ]

10. Remember SUSA on NC and IN?!!

[MadBadger]

11. I do. I still think he wins by 20

[unlawflcombatnt]

12. SUSA in KY:Clinton 62%, Obama 28%; WV Clinton 66, Obama 23

If a Democratic Primary was held in Kentucky today, Clinton would annihilate Obama, 62-28. She'd get more than twice the votes that Obama gets.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ky/kentucky_democratic_primary-638.html


If a West Virginia Democratic Primary was held today (which it is), the Suffolk poll Clinton again annihilating Obama 60-24.
The ARG poll has Clinton winning WV by 66-23,
almost 3 to 1.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/wv/west_virginia_democratic_primary-637.html

But I'll go you one better. I've made a copy of the most recent polls in all 3 states--OR, KY, and West Virginia



Those polls also show Clinton winning against McCain in Florida and Ohio, while Obama loses in both Florida and Ohio.

Gee, I wonder who would do better in Michigan against McCain, given the Obama camp has tried to block all re-does of the Michigan primary.

[MadBadger]

13. So make your own thread

[Alhena]

14. And in spite of that, your candidate has no hope of winning- sucks for you doesn't it?

[GarbagemanLB]

15. She lost. Go troll another thread.

[ORDem]

16. It's over, give it a rest, go lick your wounds or something.

Your talking points are stale and these polls mean nothing at this point with regard to the GE. The GE campaign has barely begun and once Hillary is out the whole dynamic changes.