If Ted Strickland Is Our VP, I Think Obama Starts Off With 258 Electoral College Votes

[malik flavors]

I was pretty cool to the idea of Ted Strickland as VP at first, but I've warmed up to the idea quite a bit now.

If we can assume Obama wins the 210 electoral college votes that all democrats win, and he takes Strickland as his VP he'll basically be guaranteed Ohio's 20 votes. That puts him at 230. He's also heavely favored in Iowa and with Ed Rendell, Bob Casey, Mayor Nutter, and Mayor Ravenstahl helping out it in PA I think he'll carry that state as well. So that would be 258 E.C. votes practically in the bag.

The states he'd have left to fight for to get to 270 are:

Colorado: 9 Votes
Michigan: 17 Votes
Missouri: 11 Votes
Nevada: 5 Votes
New Mexico: 5 Votes
New Hampshire: 4 Votes
Virginia: 13 Votes
Florida: 27 Votes

He's probably not going to carry Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, or Missouri, but if he can simply win Michigan he'd win the election and Michigan is definitely leaning democratic this year.

He also has an excellent chance of getting those 12 votes by combining Colorado with either New Mexico or Nevada. But If Obama picks Strickland as his VP, I think you'll see him plant himself in Michigan and do everything he can to win that state.

2008 could all come down to the great lakes state of Michigan.

I'd also like to add that Ted Strickland is a Clinton loyalist, so he helps to bring the party back together, he recieved an "A" rating from the NRA, he's liked by working class and rural voters, and he obviously has executive experience. I don't think he has much foreign policy experience, but no VP choice is perfect. He brings Ohio and that's enough.

[Yael]

1. I can't get that image of him bobble-heading behind HRC

when she went on that infamous "shame on you" tirade.

He looked like a clueless typical politico.

No thanks.

[MadBadger]

3. Exactly

He looked so pathetic.

[malik flavors]

5. Haha, I know. I hated him when I saw that. He looked like a tool, but that's not important.

What's important is winning and he's a winner. He brings Ohio, and that would be a huge sigh of relief if we can take that state of the board.

No republican has won without Ohio in ages.

[mod mom]

20. and it was used repeatedly in loop after loop. As an Ohioan, what are his big accomplishments?

To be quite honest-I hardly heard of him before he ran for Governor and against Blackwell it wasn't exactly a difficult race. I believe someone like Jm Webb, who brings a military background and would be more appealing to Independents, as could bring Virginia into the fold, is a much more viable choice.

[malik flavors]

21. He represented Ohio in the House for like 6 years, was born there, and is liked as Gov.

I agree Jim Webb would be great though. No doubt about it. I just feel like if you start off with Ohio you have a major advantage.

[mod mom]

42. being born here and serving in the House for 6 years aren't notable accomplishments. He brings

no military or foreign policy experience and lacks accomplishments that would bring other praise.

[K Gardner]

31. OMG.. that's who he is.. argghhh, no !! LOL

[Skwmom]

40. He was shaking in one video. Does he have Parkinsons?

[Renew Deal]

41. I have the same problem

And if I remember correctly, Strickland is a solid Dem. He looked like such a tool.

[saltpoint]

2. Strickland is a possibility. We could use a boost in Ohio. Gore lost it

by only 3.4% points -- and this after a truncated campaign against Dubya in 2000. Had Gore persevered, he might actually have won in Ohio. We'll never know, but there's a lingering notion that he gave it up too quickly.

Kerry/Edwards, in the opinion of this observer, won Ohio in 2004.

And for 2008, I think Obama will carry Ohio. Senator Brown would be a favorite among Ohians for me, although it is of note that Gov. Sebelius of Kansas is the daughter of former Ohio Gov. John Gilligan.

So an Obama/Sebelius ticket would have some punch in the Buckeye State.

[malik flavors]

6. Obama hasn't been polling so well in Ohio. I'm not so confident he'd carry without some help.

Strickland would be a huge asset. Just consider the luxury of starting off with 258 electoral votes.

[saltpoint]

10. Agree that Strickland would help in Ohio and likely elsewhere.

When Democrats are given 1 candidate and his or her record this cycle versus McCain and his veep choice with THERI voting records, I think Democrats vote for the blue ticket en masse.

[MadBadger]

11. The last Q-Poll had it tied there I believe

[krawhitham]

28. Last I saw was 42-43 McCain

[MadBadger]

32. I'm calling that a tie

[krawhitham]

27. Strickland is not that popular here

Only reason he won was because the Rethug was a black man (Kenny Blackwell)

[saltpoint]

30. i don't think a case can be made that Strickland won owing to

his opponent's race.

He won, IMO owing to his opponent's level of corruption.

Ted Strickland carried c. 75-plus percent of the Afro American vote.

http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/OH/G/00/epolls.0.html

[mod mom]

43. Blackwell was very controversial as he brought much disrepute to elections, plus

the OH GOP was ladened with serious scandals (Noe's Coingate + money laundering, indicted sitting Republican Governor)

CAN SOMEONE WHO SUPPORTS HIS BEING CONSIDERED FOR VP PLEASE SHARE WITH ME HIS ACCOMPLISHMENTS THAT SHOULD ELEVATE HIM TO THAT ROLE? (Sorry for the scream but perhaps those advocating him should read some of the Ohio political blogs commentary on him.)

[malik flavors]

44. I'm sure your answers can be found at wikipedia or by using google search engine.

[genna]

34. Can you give some context to that black man comment?

If they won't vote for a black man, why would they support Obama?

[doc03]

36. It's the typical Obamabot response, Strickland only

won because we are racists. The last election any Demacrat would have beat any Republican. I don't think Strickland would even consider running for VP no matter who is the nominee.

[OhioBlue]

46. No - it is not the typical "Obamabot response"

I'm sure she, like me worked the '06 election. We volunteered many, many hours to the campaign and talked to many people - Dems, Republicans and Independents alike. And among the Republicans that voted for Strickland, yes, there were many that voted for him b/c they weren't going to vote for a black man. That is just the way it is. I think many of us know that the Republican party is the natural home for racists.

That being said, I can't think of one Ohio Republican that could have beat Strickland in '06. So it wasn't only racism, but when you look at the counties that Strickland carried, you know some of the cross over vote from Republicans was.

For the Obama - McCain race, we don't need racist Republicans. Hell, they wouldn't have voted for any of our candidates anyway against McCain.

[mod mom]

47. Strickland had an easy contest-practically any Dem running would have won due to the numerous

Republican scandals that had come to light (Think: Noe's coingate ($50 Mill of BWC money invested in coins & beanie babies) + money laundeering to B/C '04; Republican Governor and several staffers pleaded guilty to crimes) couple this with the fact that Blackwell also put a lot of bad press on Ohio for his highly partisan role in the election making our state receive much ridicule)

[thatsrightimirish]

4. I was thinking about this

Strickland on the ticket does make the most sense. I believe he is very popular in Ohio and was a Clinton supporter so he can unite people. I think Rendell is a good choice too.

[malik flavors]

9. Rendell would be good as well, but Obama poll decently in PA. He's weaker in Ohio.

And with the way the political maching works in PA I think Obama can win it with the help of Rendell without actually putting him on the ticket.

[washingdem]

19. What about Bob Casey for VP?

I know he's pro-life, but it's not like he'd convince Obama to try and appoint judges to overturn Roe v. Wade or something.

[malik flavors]

22. He's still a young senator. It wouldn't be a very accomplished ticket.

Bob Casey the man though. I just don't think it's realistic, I think they want a Governor or a foreign policy expert.

[washingdem]

24. Well, it would reinforce the message though.

Plus, Casey had statewide office experience before being elected to the Senate. And it would reinforce the message that Washington experience is not the kind of experience we need. And as a Pro-Lifer it'd prove Obama is willing to bridge gaps. And I can't help but think there are a lot of people out there who vote Republican solely on abortion. And it would lock up PA, and that can't be underestimated.

[Rabrrrrrr]

7. The guy with the drinking problem?

Oh, wait, you said Strickland

:rofl:

[whistler162]

8. That would depend on what develops with the AG scandal.

we will have to wait and see how much more that problem explodes.

[BootinUp]

12. Colorado is an Obama fantasy

How did that ever get started anyways.

[malik flavors]

14. When you average all the Colorado polls to date, Obama has a 57% chance of winning it.

He's favored over McCain there, and he polls far better than Hillary.

he also won it overwhelmingly in the primary.

[gmudem]

29. Because of actual evidence

The 3 polls that have done Obama-McCain matchups in CO have it 50-41, 46-46, and 46-43 in favor of Obama. Hardly a fantasy.

[MikeDJohn]

13. New Hampshire might well be Obama's

A former Dem Governor, Jeanne Shaheen, running for Repug John Sunnunu' Jrs Senate, seat is AHEAD in the polls. There's a popular Dem Governor now, a Dem State House Senate and House of Rep. majority NOW. New Hampshire isn't stupid, there are bullies and old Repubs there, but the polls are off on NH. Three times the number of people voted in the Dem Primary as in the highly contested Repug Presidential primary.

[malik flavors]

16. Yea, but that state has a history of voting for John McCain. Their independents like him a lot.

It will be a battle ground, but most polls show McCain winning there as of now.

[MikeDJohn]

23. Well, that is now.........they voted for Hillary, too

I know a lot about NH politics, and how it has changed in the last 20 years.

They USED to be very Republican, now they are not!!!

Don't rely upon polls in NH, they are very unpredictable, as we know from the primary.

[wileedog]

37. As a general comment, I thnk history is out the window this year

A terrible war, recession, steady decline in standard of living and 7.5 years of general fucked-upedness can change a state's colors in a hurry, and CO is not a solid red state to begin with.

Obama has been strong out west, and when the real campaigning starts I think a lot of surprises will be in play.

[flor de jasmim]

15. 50-state strategy.... 50-state strategy....

[mikehiggins]

38. I was just going to post about the 50 state strategy but

somebody beat me to it. To make this work, Obama has to go into every state and wage an actual campaign. The money we are donating to the campaign and the DNC (bless you, Gov. Dean) can make O competitive in areas no one expects AND force the GOPukes to spend money that they don't seem to have.

Let the new politics begin!

[irish.lambchop]

17. I don't want to win that way . . .

Don't really care for Stickland (but I'm only one person). I'm not so sure about Obama not carrying Virginia - they've got Jim Webb.

[malik flavors]

18. Their Gov.Ted Kaine is also an Obama supporter, but Virginia would be a real fight.

I'd be suprised if they pulled that one off. If they had Strickland as the VP and he brought Ohio, Virginia is the only state they would need to win the presidency though, so hopefully they can make some magic there.

[boobooday]

25. Winning Ohio would be mighty helpful n/t

[Hippo_Tron]

26. Obama polls better after he has time to campaign and the GE hasn't even started yet

Lets see where the polls are a little later in the season.

[genna]

33. Electoral distribution map looks like this

He's probably not going to carry Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, or Missouri, but if he can simply win Michigan he'd win the election and Michigan is definitely leaning democratic this year.

I don't agree with you about Virginia. Democratic governor. There are different levels local politics than their used to be. Look at both Maryland and North Carolina before you count Virginia out.


What is Obama's 270 electoral vote strategy?


http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2008/Total Electoral Vote: 538; Majority Needed to Elect: 270
State 2004 and 2008
Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Arizona 10
Arkansas 6
California 55
Colorado 9
Connecticut 7
Delaware 3
D.C. 3
Florida 27
Georgia 15
Hawaii 4
Idaho 4
Illinois 21
Indiana 11
Iowa 7
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 9
Maine 4
Maryland 10
Massachusetts 12
Michigan 17
Minnesota 10
Mississippi 6
Missouri 11
Montana 3
Nebraska 5
Nevada 5
New Hampshire 4
New Jersey 15
New Mexico 5
New York 31
North Carolina 15
North Dakota 3
Ohio 20
Oklahoma 7
Oregon 7
Pennsylvania 21
Rhode Island 4
South Carolina 8
South Dakota 3
Tennessee 11
Texas 34
Utah 5
Vermont 3
Virginia 13
Washington 11
West Virginia 5
Wisconsin 10
Wyoming 3

[malik flavors]

35. You want me to list every state that he'll win?

[NorthCarolina]

39. I think the better choice in OH is Sherrod Brown

eom

[Colobo]

45. It would be a good idea.

[mystieus]

48. People only suggest Strickland because he may bring Ohio into play but

people don't know Kathleen Sebelius was born and raise in ohio and her father John Gilligan was a popular governor there.

Strickland....the guy standing behind Hillary?! hell no!!