California Voters would switch their votes to Obama if primary held today: Obama 49/Clinton 43

[powergirl]

So much for someone not being able to win big states. :evilgrin:

http://cbs5.com/politics/poll.clinton.obama.2.720136.html

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS 5) ― California voters would change their February primary vote for Hillary Clinton to a vote for Barack Obama if the vote were held again, according to an exclusive poll commissioned by CBS 5.

While voters in the California Democratic Presidential Primary backed Clinton by a 10-point margin, a new SurveyUSA poll shows that if given the chance to vote again, Californians would choose Barack Obama by a 6-point margin, 49%-43%.

The poll was conducted on May 7 and 8 and has a margin of error of 4%.

On the Republican side, John McCain won by 8 points in the California primary. The new poll says he would win by 35, in a 55%-20% victory over Mitt Romney, if Californians were given the chance to vote again.

[patrice]

1. I know someone who is close to one of HC's pledged delegates in our

state who regrets organizing for her and would rather be pledged to Obama.

[Boz]

2. As a californian I can tell you he would have won 1 week later

The only thing that kept her in the win column was mail in voting which was done the 8 weeks from late november to mid january, that were almost automatic votes for her on name recognition alone.

By mid January his brand was taking off in california and the public record and opinion and polls all had him winning, but thats why they were wrong.

They were a true measure of the day of the primary but not a measure of when almost 50% of the vote had taken place the previous 8 weeks.

[JI7]

4. i agree, his campaign in California really started just a couple days before voting

and even then he gained a lot from just a week or 2 before.

[powergirl]

5. I wondered why he wasn't campaigning harder/earlier in California

I'm from Texas and there was about a 2 week build up before the primary. I think if his campaign was here about a week longer, he could have won the popular vote. I noticed the campaign started hitting subsequent states earlier.

[JI7]

7. you have to consider the time

California was part of super tuesday or what this year was called tsunami tuesday.

he couldn't really focus on the state until after Iowa, NH and South Carolina as those states were very important to whether any candidate would be able to go on.

also, the Clintons had a campaign in the state from the time Clinton was President. they had people and an organization they could pick up from that time. Obama had nothing like that. he had to start from nothing.

[powergirl]

8. You're right - and it is a huge state

I forgot that it was Super Tuesday - that seems like SO LONG AGO! But despite Clinton's early forays into CA, Obama kicks ass! :woohoo:

[Hippo_Tron]

22. Keep in mind that there were so many states on Super Tuesday

And that Obama campaigned in all of them and it paid off.

Clinton's strategists looked at this Super Tuesday map and said "Alright well if we make sure to win all of the big states like California and New York, the media will definitely declare us the winner and it will be over tomorrow."

Obama's strategists pulled out a calculator and said, "Alright, how can we net the most delegates for the least amount of money?"

If Clinton had focused on delegates and conserving her resources for post Super Tuesday, she would likely have sewn up the nomination without much trouble.

[JI7]

3. many early votes by mail were for Hillary

i did some phone calls for Obama. and most of those who supported Hillary tended to be ones who had already voted. even then they didn't always say they supported Hillary but they had already voted for her. most of these people probably voted when it was thought she would easily win it and before Obama won Iowa.

the ones who hadn't voted were either for Obama or still deciding between the 2.

also, after the california primary the number of Obama stickers and signs has gone up.

[frylock]

12. lots of obama stickers in very red san diego

[Cali_Democrat]

6. When a Democratic nominee turns into a Republican, we will tune them out and oppose them

Any questions?

[bridgit]

9. California is a *very* large state, with far more than your 'simple' cross section...

Saying that BO would sweep the central, or imperial valley, as a for instance, seems a pipe dream :smoke: He lost California...deal with it :thumbsup:

[Warren DeMontague]

25. That's okay, he'll win CA in November. nt

[bridgit]

28. I didn't mean to suggest Cali is dumb, McCain has no business here what-so-ever...

McCain/Obama? Is a no-brainer :)

[Warren DeMontague]

29. Oooo, that's a nice shot.

Looks like home.

[bridgit]

30. No doubt! Off in the distance there is Cambria. From a little road up through the hills...

that ends up in Paso Robles :hi:

[marions ghost]

10. voter remorse?

the interviewer asks...

"or bandwagon effect"

[Boz]

11. Sort of neither, new brand awareness is a better way to describe it

Sort of a bandwagon effect but only because alot of people like the tune.

[marions ghost]

18. in the interview

"bandwagon effect" was thrown out as the reason so many in California went for Hillary early on....

"New brand awareness" -- wish there was some way to get the voters better informed BEFORE they have to vote...the perennial problem I guess

Woman from CA on video just said, "well I chose the woman." The idea that a woman 'can fix things better' really sold well..though there's not much logic to that distinction. Still, we need to understand the appeal of a female candidate to many women and some men. Some people perceive women
as "kinder, gentler" but that's not so true when they get through the gauntlet of competing with men, they tend to lose the gentle thing. Hillary would "obliterate," after all.

[AtomicKitten]

13. Well we went for him big here in SF.

But I do agree he didn't have enough time to conquer California. He would do very nicely in a do-over.

[mcctatas]

15. Oh no...

Don't tell O'reilly, he hates san francisco;)

[AtomicKitten]

17. and I'm loving every minute of it

:D

[VolcanoJen]

Oh, Noes!!!!!

I dun lost mah talking point!!!!

[book_worm]

14. There was a Ruetgers Poll recently of NJ which said the same thing

that if a revote was allowed Obama would take NJ.

[goletian]

16. i honestly dont get how she won cali. all i see around me are obama stickers in sb - nt

[goclark]

19. I'm in Los Angeles but I have only seen two Clinton lawn signs

and I get all over the city. :shrug:

[goletian]

23. they must be mostly ashamed to show who they support. - nt

[my3boyz]

20. I think the Super Delegates there are having buyer's remorse too

Chuck Todd pointed out the other day that it was odd that so many CA super delegates are uncommitted even though she won there. The early votes are what helped her in CA (before a lot of people paid attention to him).

[Zachstar]

21. This point alone takes a huge amount of the tiny breeze left in Clinton's sails

If she wins WV I expect it to be within 10 followed by the same in Kentucky with large Obama blowout in Oregon. Everyone not in serious denial that this is virtually over. Justing waiting on the final word from Clinton at this point.

[Tarheel_Dem]

24. Wasn't there a similar poll re: MI a couple of weeks ago? I could be

mistaken.

[Carrieyazel]

26. Survey USA has one of the worst reliability records in polling.

Don't buy it.

[quakerboy]

27. Are you sure of that?

It seems like they have improved since that comparison study was done, but perhaps you have numbers that are newer than supertuesday on that?

[PM7nj]

31. Wha?

They where way off in Missouri and Indiana but have been very good in other states.

Anyway, buyers remorse is real here in NJ. Most people just voted for Hillary because she was well known and well liked. She isn't really liked as much anymore.