7/29 KERRY WIN PROBABILITY: 96.07%, VOTE: 52.72% , EV: 322

[TruthIsAll]

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2104801

[AndyTiedye]

1. How Are We Going to get 60% of the Undecided Vote?

Undecided voters are easily swayed. That's why they're undecided.
Saturation propaganda in the media is already in full effect, and that
is very likely to deliver most undecided voters to Bush*.

We will have to fight tooth-and-nail to get half of the undecided voters.
We are very unlikely to get 60%, and we cannot possibly get 70%. That
may have happened in previous elections, when we had more of a free press,
but with the press so thoroughly in Bush*'s pocket, there is no way to reach
a significant number of undecided voters.

We would be better off going after the unlikely voters and registering new voters.

It would be very useful to get the numbers from your model if you assume
we only get 50% of the undecided vote, and even 40%. We need to know what
we have to do to win with that.

[tritsofme]

2. July undecideds do not equal October undecideds

As I've said before, I think that by the time we get to October, there will be basically no undecideds to speak of, and all national polling will be within the margin of error and essentially useless.