Hillary is unelectable

[ProSense]

She cannot win the primary; therefore, she will not be in the GE.

. . .

Ignoring the voters who chose “uncommitted” in Michigan, where he was not on the ballot, Mr. Obama has a 230,000 vote advantage. If those voters are assigned to Mr. Obama or John Edwards based on exit poll results, his lead grows to about 410,000.

In the remaining six contests, about 8 million people are eligible to vote (that total includes all of the Republicans in Montana and about three million people in Puerto Rico). If 35 percent go to the polls, Mrs. Clinton would need the support of two-thirds of them to win the popular vote. (So far, she has met this bar only in Arkansas).

<...>

PLEDGED DELEGATES

According to a New York Times count, Mr. Obama leads 1,591 to 1,423 in pledged delegates. Because results are incomplete, not all delegates have been allocated.

To win this count, Mrs. Clinton would need to pick up more than 80 percent of the unallocated pledged delegates. One measure of how difficult this would be: in her best state so far - Arkansas - she won 77 percent of the pledged delegates.

link

Maybe the superdelegates are waiting for her to score more than 85% in the remaining contest?

Hillary is using the white vote to court superdelegates

Unlike Obama, who has struggled to win segments of the white voting population in some states (not those he won by 65% or more), Hillary at one time had a commanding lead over Obama among black voters.

November:

Clinton tops Obama among African-Americans


January:





The superdelegates will have to accept that Hillary's tactics were/are responsible for driving black voters away.

In fact, Obama is now the preferred candidate in New Jersey, a state Hillary won.

Obama does better against McCain than Clinton in Michigan poll

After last night's crushing defeat in NC and Obama's excellent showing in Indiana, it's clear that Hillary's pandering on gas tax and pushing the Jermiah Wright issue didn't help her at all.




edited to fix link

[ProSense]

1. No comment? n/t

[AtomicKitten]

2. Obama's Independent Edge.

K&R

April 29, 2008
Obama's Independent Edge
By John Avlon

It's electability, stupid.

That's what Hillary Clinton and her surrogates have been spinning to super-delegates and anyone else who will listen since she lost her grip on once-inevitable nomination. There's just one problem - when it comes to independent voters, those crucial swing votes in swing states, Hillary doesn't hold the electability edge: Barack Obama does.

Independent voters favor Obama by a 2 to 1 margin over Hillary - 49% to 24% - according to a NBC/WSJ poll taken after the Jeremiah Wright scandal exploded in late March. His approval rating among Republicans is almost twice Hillary's as well - 19% to 10%.

Crossover appeal is the key indicator of electability - especially for Democrats. Despite Democratic dominance of Congress during most of the 20th Century, no Democratic president managed to win more than 51% of the popular vote, with the exceptions of FDR and LBJ. What's the lesson? Democrats especially depend on Independent voters and even some centrist Republicans to win the White House.

That's true now more than ever: Independent voters are the fastest growing and largest segment of the American electorate, as detailed in former Clinton and Bloomberg pollster Doug Schoen's new book "Declaring Independence: The Beginning of the End of the Two-Party System."

Obama's Independent edge has already had an impact in key 2008 swing states like Virginia, where independents made up 22% of the February 12th open primary. Obama won their support by a 2 to 1 margin, on his way to a 64-35 blowout victory. It's not a coincidence that some of Obama's biggest wins have come from states with open primaries - such as South Carolina, Wisconsin, Idaho, Mississippi, Minnesota and Vermont. These states - stereotypically ranging from dark red to dark blue - offer the best gauge of his geographically diverse general election appeal. And each were among the 18 states that Obama has won by 20 points or more. Hillary, by comparison, has won only Arkansas and neighboring Oklahoma by that margin.

more at:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/obamas_independent_edge.html

[TahitiNut]

3. Just file it under ...

... An Inconvenient Truth. :shrug:

[ProSense]

7. You're right. n/t

[NewHampshireDem]

4. The facts have a well-known anti-Hillary bias n/t

[HooptieWagon]

5. Is this Math?

Hillary doesn't do math... besides, there's a new goalpost - didn't you hear? Dirt! Yes, dirt! Dirt won is the new electabliity quotient.

[ProSense]

13. My bad. n/t

[wileedog]

6. NJSecularist's head just exploded

[Cali_Democrat]

14. He jumped ship to USS Hillary right when it about to go totally under water

Poor guy. What horrible timing he has.

[CreekDog]

18. surprisingly, no brain cells were damaged

...this is not to say he doesn't have any. :think:

[cliffordu]

8. THANKS!! Kand R

[FrenchieCat]

9. Important to note!

[ProSense]

11. Very. n/t

[dailykoff]

10. She's also unbearable.

:puke:

K/R

[Scurrilous]

12. K & R

:thumbsup:

[kentuck]

15. She may not be unelectable...

But it will be more difficult for her to win than for Obama, in my opinion. FWIW

[ProSense]

16. In terms of the primary.

Look where Hillary's support among blacks started and where it is today. Evidently, she's unconcerned about her declining support among black.

[ProSense]

17. Hillary and Bill's unfavorability almost identical

DIAGEO/HOTLINE poll