Huckabee, Romney and Paul got a lot of votes tonight......

[Wetzelbill]

The Dem race got all the attention but Sam Stein at Huffington Post reported that McCain had a fairly bad night in races where he has essentially run uncontested. (I'm having computer trouble, and I can't get the link, sorry) But it seems that in some races, although largely uncontested this last few months, McCain will only get about 80 percent of the vote, while Huckabee, Paul etc, will each pull around 5-10 percent. Not to mention that Dem turnout, even when the GOP race was contested, has been significantly larger. Not exactly new news, but McCain is not well-liked by good-sized segments of the Republican Party. These are good signs for Dems in November.

[autorank]

1. You are one smart guy! k*r

I caught Paul's 16% in Pennsylvania, which is where he seems to be consistently.

But this is very interesting.

I think that 16% is in play, maybe 10% come on over on getting out of Iraq plus stopping the budget
lies and insanity.

Excellent!

[nomorenomore08]

2. Yeah, I do think some anti-war Paul supporters could end up voting Obama over McCain.

Paul himself does seem to have some racist tendencies, based on things he's said and written, but that doesn't mean his followers are all bigots.

[autorank]

11. Some would be very helpful - maybe half of that 16%

Obama ought to set up a summit with Paul to court his backers. This would be out of the box thinking
but why not? Paul had a newsletter, which he said staff ran, that put out some real nasty racist stuff
and Paul has a few comments on record in the press that are racist. If Obama approached him, it would
give Paul a chance to show who he is or redefine that part of his record. A Paul endorsement would
f'ing end it, I think. It would just melt minds on the right. His supporters are not racist, the ones
I've talked with,not one bit. They're voting for Obama.

[murielm99]

3. Do you really think so?

I can see them staying home rather than coming to our side.

[Wetzelbill]

4. I don't see a lot of them in play for a Dem candidate, no

but staying home for sure. It looks like many have already decided to sit it out judging by turnout and that includes when the race was still contested. They may have came out and voted for McCain if Hillary was the nominee, but not Obama, he's not as polarizing as she is, they completely hate her guts. Right now, they are tepid on McCain, and it looks like many will sit out the GE. Unless they can somehow get riled up over something.

[charlie]

5. Maybe

But Paul himself recently said he prefers Obama over McCain, because of his positions on Iraq and approach to foreign policy. The zealotry of Paul supporters makes the stuff here look like weak tea. And they almost uniformly loathe McCain. If Paul doesn't bend from that opinion, plenty of those who regard his utterances as holy writ might enjoy sticking an Obama vote in McCain's eye.

[Wetzelbill]

7. yeah they are hardcore for Paul

That's why I'm thinking they might be so fervent that many will write him in. Either way I don't see a his faithful flocking to McCain.

[IronLionZion]

14. Who knows what motivates them

Ron Paul has praised Obama's foreign policy positions over McCain. So if ending the war is that important to them, then they might surprise us.

[Wetzelbill]

6. my staff does all the research.... wait I don't have one

Thanks! :)

I think some of Paul's support in particular would be in play for sure. I wouldn't doubt many of them write him in too. I would look for a few of the more populist types who are Huckabee supporters to maybe be a little open to voting for Obama. Still a tough sell. If anything, the big story this year has been turnout, Dem excitement is at an all-time high and has consistently dwarfed the GOP turnout. Polls also don't account for turnout like that. You can call up or stop 1000 people and get results out of that, but you can't really figure out just how many people will flood the voting booths on election day. But Dem turnout and registration is looking very good so far, it makes me optimistic. That and it appears that despite the fierce battle and McCain's free ride, both Dems are beating him in most polls. Hopefully, when this officially gets into a one on one race, Obama will surge ahead by 10 points or so.

[autorank]

8. Compliments to your staff - it is about new voters, occasionals who came out

Virginia Presidential Primary (approx.)

2004: 450,000
2008: 930,000

That's it, mid Atlantic sweep for Obama. Those #'s are quite something.

Webb, who is very popular now, didn't inspire that turnout. It's a huge "statement" vote - this is
the only game in town where the candidate is talking about change, so I'm voting. People are
desperate for someone who might do something. Big burden on Obama, he's got to come off this
centrist stuff, dump any illusions about people like Lieberman, who turned on him, and the rest
of them. I've noticed his rhetoric move toward populist themes. Gotta do it.

I think McCain is the reason HRC fought so hard - the Dem nominee has to win because McCain can't take
even two weeks of attention, which he will get.

Nice work. I'm going to have my staff get back to your staff when they look at those figures in detail;)

[anonymous171]

9. That is why Hillary would be a bad choice.

Conservatives won't vote for McCain, but they will gladly vote AGAINST Hillary.

[TragedyandHope]

10. As shown by these Rethug buttons...

[kentuck]

12. All the questions about Hillary supporters voting for McCain...

could be turned around and asked of Republican supporters also. How many Republicans will not vote for McCain and will vote for the Democrat in the general? I think that charge works both ways.

[Wetzelbill]

16. I think so too

They are simply not happy with him at all. He ended up being the default guy because George Allen and Bill Frist imploded before they even had a chance to get in the race, if they would have, and then Rudy, Mitt and Fred Thompson ran such bad campaigns it pretty much just left McCain.

[redqueen]

13. IMO support for other Republicans is overrepresented.

McCain's supporters have no reason to come out and vote... the others do.

[Wetzelbill]

15. that could be true

But what I didn't mention in the OP is that a solid percentage of people actually came out to vote for nobody, which is, in effect, to vote against McCain. I'll have to look up the exact number, but, they are definitely tepid towards him.

[redqueen]

17. Oh definitely...

I know that just from talking to my Republican neighbors and friends around here. They call him a RINO.

[Wetzelbill]

18. one of my friends was a hardcore McCain guy

He's an Army vet, works in law enforcement, almost ignorantly Republican, a vitriolic hatred of the Clintons. McCain was his hero. But in the last two years he's changed. I remember he called me gloating on election night 2004 about Bush and McCain's reelections. Now he denies ever voting for Bush and he talks about McCain like he hates his guts. He even once said Bill Clinton was a great president on foreign policy, which blew me away. This guy hated BC.

I think Bush will be a major albatross on McCain's neck for Dems and Independents, and that enough of the hardcore RWers hate McCain enough to stay home in November. Throw in high Dem turnout and I'm hopeful. :)