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THE TRUTH: 16 NATIONAL POLLS, KERRY'S PROB (WIN) 91-99%

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 09:26 AM
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THE TRUTH: 16 NATIONAL POLLS, KERRY'S PROB (WIN) 91-99%
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 09:32 AM
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1. I Admire Your Enthusiasm But The Election Is Three Months Away....
NT
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Zidane Donating Member (134 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 11:09 AM
Response to Original message
2. This doesn't seem very accurate
"THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVES HIM A 96.89% PROBABILITY OF
WINNING, ASSUMING HE GETS 70% OF THE OTHER/UNDECIDED VOTE."

*ASSUMING* he gets. Hell, I have an upper 90% shot of winning the election in november as well *assuming* I were to get 99% of the vote.

Predictions based on assumptions - especially when there are literally millions of variables (every single voter for one thing) - are generally just that - predictions. I predict I'll win the lotto tomorrow.

Seriously - this is no time to declare certain victory and get complacent. There is a HELL of a lot of work to do before November - and if it isn't done - and done right - that prediction will be, shall we say, less than accurate.

I am reminded of Lieberman saying he has already certainly secured the nomination early in the primary. Such a prediction served him well didn't it?
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WyLoochka Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 11:45 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. TruthIsAll is DU's
long time resident statistician. His number crunching is interesting, pertinent and valuable - no need to be so condescending - I'll bet TIA understands the ramifications far better than you do.
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CanonRay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 12:28 PM
Response to Original message
4. I'd like to believe this but...
I just saw a poll that said 93% of Republicans are going to vote for Bush. I cannot understand how anyone who is thinking at all can continue to support this idiot, let alone 93%. This worries me, as I was hoping "real" Republicans (not neocons or religious nuts) would at least stay home.
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AlecBGreen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 05:03 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. Hi CanonRay!
welcome to DU! :hi:
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