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Any chance of taking back the House?

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fujiyama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 09:08 AM
Original message
Any chance of taking back the House?
I haven't been paying much attention to the House, because there are so many races and it seemed like such a longshot, but I was wondering how it's going. I know some here are working to get local House candidates elected, which is great. How's that coming BTW?

At the least is there any news about those candidates going against big names, like the guy running against DeLay? It would be great to see him out of office.

I check Kos once in a while. He has some good info on the senate races as well. It seems like a lot of senate seats are still toss ups, and are competetive. There are some unexpected states where the dems may pick up senate seats like AK and OK.

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xchrom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 09:33 AM
Response to Original message
1. it had better happen
and very, very soon.
if we can't get a more comprhensive package booting corporate influence out of capitol hill we are in real, serious trouble.
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in_cog_ni_to Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 10:53 AM
Response to Original message
2. The Roll Call guy on C-SPAN said
the Dems have an EXCELLENT chance of taking back BOTH the House and the Senate. We only need 12 Reps, 2 Senators and 1 in the WH! We CAN do this!

12***2***& 1!
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sleipnir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 12:27 PM
Response to Original message
3. NO, not a chance....but....
Edited on Sun Jul-25-04 12:28 PM by sleipnir
The best predictions I've read have the Rethugs only with a +5 advantage in the House. Most say to expect an advantage of +7 to +10 for the next session. We will pick up a few seats, but not enough to win the House. Anyway, it takes more than a simple majority to rule the House. Full control of the House is at least two elections cycles away for the Dems; realistically, 2010.

However, if all goes as planned and we get to a +5, a lot can happen in two years. People get sick, people retire, indictments, defections, etc. It's possible that the Dems could gain marginal control of the House if enough bad things happen to the other side.

Any advantage that is under +10 is usually considered to be a tied or deadlocked House, it's hard as hell to railroad legislation through with a very small majority.


The Senate is another issue, it's probable that we will win back the Senate. At least we won't lose any seats. All of the predictions I've read have the Dems, realistically, with anywhere between 49-53 seats in the Senate next year.
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Mz Pip Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 02:20 PM
Response to Original message
4. My Congresswoman
Barbara Lee seems to think we have a very good chance of taking back the House. She spoke at a Leadership breakfast I attended a few weeks ago and she was very optimistic.

Still, we were optimnistic in 2002 so I won't be holding my breath.

MzPip
:dem:
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no name no slogan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-25-04 02:37 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. I tend to agree with Barbara Lee on this
I've heard that all we need are 11 seats to switch sides this year, and we have a majority in the House.

Even if GeeDubya somehow wins, he won't have any coattails to speak of. By October, most Repubs will be running AWAY from him instead of with him, if things continue as they are.

I'm actually feeling more optimistic about the House than the presidential race this year. I know of several very popular and liberal Democrats who are running solid campaigns. It's going to be a helluva fight!
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