*** 2,208 is a LIE and here's WHY: ***

[FlyingSquirrel]

Even if you were to accept the rhetoric that Obama should not be able to claim victory until he's reached 2,208 delegates - the number it would take if FL and MI were included -

He can actually clinch it with as few as 2,081 of the CURRENT delegates.

He would gain:

67 Pledged Delegates from FL
55 Pledged Delegates from MI - the "Uncommitted".
4 Superdelegate endorsements from FL
1 Superdelegate endorsement from MI

127 Total that are NOT included in the CURRENT delegate count.

Even the most biased Clinton supporter would have to agree that with Obama not on the ballot in MI, the only fair thing to do at this point if you were going to count MI as-is would be to give Obama the Uncommitted vote. Anything else would have Obama supporters up in arms, and even this much would be controversial.

So any claim that Obama must reach 2,208 WITHOUT MI and FL to prove he could win if they were included, once again...

*** IS A LIE. ***

I'm confident Obama can get not only 2,024 but once he passes that mark, will also get get 2,081.

He has 1,744 right now. The most conservative estimates give him the following delegates in remaining states:

IN 33, NC 62, WV 11, OR 27, KY 16, PR 24, MT 9, SD 8

That's 190 delegates. Add to 1,744 and you get 1,934.

With 271 remaining Superdelegates, he'd need:

33.2% of them to reach 2,024
54.2% of them to reach 2,081

By redefining the number he would need to be 2,208 of the CURRENT delegates, the Clinton camp is creating an impossible task.
Because, you see, he would need 274 Superdelegates to endorse him - out of the 271 remaining.

Lovely, isn't it?

x(

[livetohike]

1. They are running out of tactics - it's so ridiculous

I can see people from the Clinton campaign sitting around with their calculators trying to figure out how this can happen for them. So desperate.

[TexasLady]

2. Someone school me here, please.

I don't get it. I don't get how any one person has any authority to decide how much the Final number needs to be. I thought it was an already decided thing? :shrug:

[Debi]

7. She doesn't

But by creating chaos she can continue her crazy-assed quest for the nomination.

[rateyes]

8. The number is half plus one of total delegates....

As it stands, according to the rules right now, that number is 2024. That does not include delegates from FL or MI. If, FL and MI get seated, then the total delegates available increase, and therefore the number to gain the nomination increases by half that number. The Clinton camp wants the FL and MI numbers to stand just as they are (even though she broke her pledge not to participate in MI by leaving her name on the ballot when no other candidate did.) That way she gets a helluva lot more delegates, because she would get half the MI delegates while Obama would get none of those. Hillary was all for the rules until she began losing.

In other words--if you can't win fairly---cheat!

[TexasLady]

12. ah, ok. Thanks yall.

:hi:

[Maraya1969]

24. So Clinton wants to include a state that did not even have Obama's name of the ballot?

Is that true? If it is it is totally repulsive and campaign adds need to be made asap about it.

Whose names were on the Michigan ballot?

[rateyes]

29. Whose name (singular) was on the Michigan Ballot?

Hillary Clinton.

[doublethink]

3. 2,025

"The game's in the refrigerator, the door's closed, the light's out, the eggs are cooling, the butter's getting hard and the Jell-O's jiggling."

Chic Hearn.

[olkaz]

4. Don't you mean 2,028? n/m

[FlyingSquirrel]

5. No, the Clinton camp is attempting to redefine it to 2,208.

That's the number it would be if MI and FL were seated as-is and all their superdelegates were also seated.

See DemConWatch for more on this. It's on the left-hand side, about halfway down.

They actually have it as 2,024.5 and 2,208.5 but I truncated for simplicity.

[Debi]

6. Nope, the Clinton camp is trying to change the # to 2208 or 2209

saying that would include FL and MI.

[olkaz]

10. Bah, I wasn't paying attention.

It's been a long day. I just want to do some lawnwork and go to sleep.

[Debi]

14. I'll give you my address and you can do my lawnwork as well

THEN go to sleep! :hi:

[rocktivity]

9. Hillary's internal polls must not be looking good AT ALL

Until MI/FL is adjudicated by the DNC on May 31, this is one person's opinion at best and a weapon of mass diversion at worst. But it would serve Hillary right if Obama had 2025 pledged/super delegates by May 31--If he wins NC and gets at lest 40% of IN, I think enough superdelegates would come out for him to make that happen.

:headbang:
rocknation

[TheDoorbellRang]

11. Did they actually say he needed 2208 without MI and FL?

That makes no sense.

I know they're going to resolve MI and FL on May 31st, but I doubt it'll be the happy result the Clinton camp hopes for, i.e., seated as is.

In fact, I'm guessing this will all be over (in Obama's favor) before May 31st simply because that's the date set to resolve MI and FL. Otherwise, why wouldn't they have waited one more week until PR, SD, and MT had voted?

[FlyingSquirrel]

16. Here's what they said:

Mr. Garin said "neither candidate" will have the <2,208> needed delegates by June 3 when the last votes are counted in South Dakota and Montana. But Mr. Obama, should he win over a large bloc of superdelegates — elected officials and party activists who help decide the nomination — could get to 2,025 by then.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080506/NATION/525934081/1002

(2,208 inserted in quotation above by me)

So while he's technically telling the truth that neither candidate will have 2,208 on June 3, he's conveniently ignoring the fact that Obama could in fact have 2,081 and that together with the PD's in MI and FL that he should be receiving if they were both counted, that would add up to 2,208.

He might say he's spinning. I say he's lying.

[Turn CO Blue]

13. A point and a question...

1. There are now 795 super delegates (it was 794). So it now takes 2024.5 to win (instead of 2024).

From Dem Con Watch:

In a major win by Democrats deep in the south, Don Cazayoux won the Special Election in LA-6, becoming the newest Democrat in Congress, and our 795th Superdelegate!

Also, there are now 4,048 delegates to the 2008 Democratic National Convention, and it takes 2,024.5 delegates to get the nomination.

2. The 19 delegates that Edwards won.

19 out of the 2024.5 are committed to Edwards. This is an unknown. I have not been able to determine what happens to these 19 votes. Regardless, doesn't it mean that we can subtract half of 19 from 2024.5 to get a new "must win" number? 2015.5

[WeDidIt]

17. An answer to 2.

No.

The number needed to win is 50% +1 voting delegate (whether that voting delegate has a full vote or a half vote)

There are 4048 sanctioned delegates at this point and a candidate has a half vote, so the number is considered to be 2024.5. Most people consider it 2025.

If Florida and Michigan are seated as-is with full voting rights, the total number of delegates increases to 4416 making the number 2208.5 or rounding up, 2209.

[Debi]

18. I don't know that that number (19) is correct any more

since Iowa has had two additional contests since the Caucuses (County and District Conventions)

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/IA-D.phtml (Iowa delegate count)

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/NH-D.phtml (New Hampshire delegate count)

[FlyingSquirrel]

19. I know about the extra .5

I was truncating it for simplicity.

He'd need 2,081.5 to ensure that he has 2,208.5 with MI and FL. It's the same essential percentage of Supers that he'd need.

The point is that he can easily achieve this number by June 3, and the Clinton camp is attempting to pull the wool over people's eyes by saying he can't get 2,208.5 by June 3. No, of course he can't. But some of that 2,208.5 is not possible because it's included in the MI/FL totals that he'd receive if they were later counted. In order to be able to say he would win even with MI/FL, he doesn't need 2,208.5 of the CURRENT DELEGATES by June 3 because some of those delegates he has already won but they aren't yet being counted.

It's a shell game and it's despicable.

[Turn CO Blue]

31. Oh, I agree. I was sort of off topic really.

I guess I just keep seeing 2024 all over DU, and I think - hey we won a different election (beating a Puke) so let's remember to count this new guy!!!

I think another point I would raise is that a really the important number is 1627 of the pledged - that is when the Pelosi Club kicks in, and the SDs she has lined up will come out in force. We're getting very close to that, very close now.

[Coexist]

15. 2025

[AZBlue]

20. It's also a lie because the DNC said 2,025.

There was no asterisk after that number.

[FlyingSquirrel]

21. Still waiting for a Clinton supporter to turn this lie into a truth

*crickets*

[FlyingSquirrel]

22. *crickets*

[FlyingSquirrel]

30. more *crickets*

[FlyingSquirrel]

32. Kickin' for some sound besides *crickets*

[Vinca]

23. This just in: the Clinton campaign has moved the goalposts again.

3,577 delegates needed. Her representatives are currently scouring the solar system.

[kwenu]

25. I clearly have some catching up to do to understand why we're talking about 2,208.

But I'm sure Hillary will play an amazing part in all of this.

[FlyingSquirrel]

27. Here's the thread, which contains a link to Washington Times

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5842082&mesg_id=5842082

[FlyingSquirrel]

26. Someone on another thread said Clinton would say it should be 2,136 instead of 2,081

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5842082&mesg_id=5844075

The reasoning was that the Uncommitted vote in MI shouldn't automatically all go to Obama, and Hillary was fighting for those delegates as well.

My response is that this would create such a backlash that it's truly a nuclear option that will NOT be allowed by the DNC no matter what.

However, for the sake of argument I'll assume just for a moment that she could take 28 of those 55 Uncommitted delegates and that the DNC would stand by and allow this.

That would mean Obama would need 2,108 of the current delegates.

He could achieve this with 64.2% of the current Superdelegates.

This is also achievable by June 3 or shortly thereafter if they all endorse.

[Guaranteed]

28. Clinton can leave the party after she loses, as far as I'm concerned. This is just disgusting.

I am just totally disgusted with her.