Why can't Clinton win independents? (Kos) - Hey Super Delegates, put this in your pipe and smoke it

[jefferson_dem]

Why can't Clinton win independents?
by kos

Tue May 06, 2008 at 12:10:16 PM PDT
Percent of the independent vote in contests thus far this cycle (where exit polling is available):



Clinton won independents in just four states out of 30 states with exit polls. And in the caucus states, she likely lost those as well. Now Clinton supporters will argue that most of these states voted before the Jeremiah Wright video got played 46 billion times on the networks, and that the numbers would look a lot different if those states voted again.

But check out Pennsylvania, which was the first state to vote after Wright. Much has been made about how similar PA and OH are demographically. And they both delivered victories to Clinton by almost identical margins. Yet look at the independent percentages:

OH: 50 48
PA: 54 46

Obama did better with independents in Pennsylvania post-Wright than he did in Ohio pre-Wright. Is it an ironclad apples-to-apples comparison? Of course not, but it is suggestive.

Clinton has a problem attracting independent voters, a phenomenon reflected in general election polling. Here are the" independent" crosstabs in several key battleground states:



<SNIP>

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/6/12118/85843/484/510052

[FrenchieCat]

1. But along with the Youth, the New, the activists, and the Black, the Indies

don't count. But you knew that. Right?

[MonkeyFunk]

2. to be fair

those are independents voting in the Democratic primary.

I think either candidate would gain a majority of independents in the general election.

[jefferson_dem]

4. True that...

those in Exit Poll Table are indies voting in the Dem primary but they overwhelmingly pick Obama over Hillary. You know, all the chatter about how "lunch pail" Democrats support her over him. Same thing here, only I would argue that Indies will be an even more crucial swing block of voters come General Election time than those "lunch pail" Democrats, who are more likey to remain loyal to the Party once Obama is the nominee.

Note that the second table are poll numbers and they represent head-to-heads against McCain in the General. This proves the point. Obama competes for or wins Indies outright while Hillary struggles bigtime.

The question is...why. Why do Indies not like her?

[JackORoses]

5. not according to those GE numbers at the bottom of the OP

Hillary gets crushed

[FlyingSquirrel]

3. Gawrsh, good question...

Wonder why it hasn't been brought up more often. Especially by the MSM

[barack the house]

6. It's a very important factor but wiser to be politer toSuperdelegates who are said

to lean Obama.

[Carrieyazel]

7. The independent vote in primaries is not that large.

Only a fraction of voters in primaries are swing voting indeps.

[jefferson_dem]

8. But those who are prefer Obama and may not prefer Hillary come the General.

In fact, the last table lists poll numbers regarding General Election "head-to-heads" for Indies.