Clinton internals show her down by only FIVE, not FIFTEEN, in North Carolina

[geek tragedy]

http://www.talkingaboutpolitics.com/Home/tabid/36/ctl/ArticleView/mid/364/articleId/1198/Maybe-I-Was-Wrong.aspx

Clearly, the girls have the momentum.



Public Policy Polling has Obama ahead here by 10. But Clinton’s internal polls show the lead at only five. And they’re holding Bill Clinton in reserve here – just in case she pulls off the upset. Bubba would love to give that speech.



If Obama wins by less than eight points, the story will be that, like King Henry II, he still needs someone to rid him of his meddlesome priest. Eight to 10 points would be a no-decision. Double digits would be an Obama win that – if he wins Indiana – could shut down the Clinton campaign.



Clinton’s campaign has shown more energy and brains here than Obama’s. Her manager, Ace Smith, is a star.

[thewiseguy]

1. She would be campaigning in NC right now if that was the case

[AllentownJake]

2. Agreed

If you already believe you won Indiana and NC was close you'd spend the day in NC.

[geek tragedy]

5. Polls show her DOWN in NC but UP in IN.

That's why she's in IN instead of NC.

[MADem]

18. Doing what? Watching TV? Making GOTV calls?

Candidates don't campaign on election day. They wrap it up the night before.

What happens on E Day is GOTV efforts. And you can do that from ANYWHERE.

You stick in the place where you give your VICTORY speech. It's why Obama left PA before that primary vote, remember?

[geek tragedy]

3. Indiana is a lock for her to win--that's why she's there. n/t

[AllentownJake]

4. She can spend the day doing photo-ops and TV interviews

and fly back around 5pm.

[geek tragedy]

7. She's trying to run up the score in IN, which she may win

bigger than she won PA.

[AllentownJake]

10. It's really moot

The last day is too late to change anyone's minds.

[thewiseguy]

6. Indiana is not a lock for her. You will see for yourself tonight.

Indiana is a toss up.

[geek tragedy]

9. Just like PA was a tossup according to all the polls. n/t

[AllentownJake]

11. Nope

Obama knew he had lost...that's why he spent the day in PA and went to Indiana that night.

[MadBadger]

12. Only PPP thought it was a tossup. Every other poll had her up 6-16 points.

[Zynx]

15. And every poll outside Zogby has produced a consistent win for her in Indiana.

[MadBadger]

19. IA, PPP, Zogby have it closing or close.

[geek tragedy]

25. Zogby and IA are the two worst pollsters out there besides ARG. n/t

[thewiseguy]

28. Let me guess. Its only SUSA that is reliable? I heard they got it right in Pennsylvania too.

[PBS Poll-435]

50. They sure did!

They had Obama's number within 1.4.

Far better than the Suffolk, Zogby or PPP

[Zynx]

34. The bulk of the polling evidence is fairly clear. I've learned after years of watching

that if 5 out of 6 polls show one result, you go with that. The result is a Clinton win between 5-8 points. I think it will be slightly more due to the fact southern Indiana is the most racist place in the country.

[Hoof Hearted]

38. Zogby.

[geek tragedy]

20. And every other poll in IN shows her up by 9-12 points.

It's only a matter of how close Obama can make it in IN. A five-point loss is a win for him there.

[MadBadger]

32. RCP says 1 poll in their average has it in that range

[thewiseguy]

13. PA was a closed primary. Indiana has an open primary.

[geek tragedy]

22. Two words: Operation Chaos. n/t

[thewiseguy]

29. You are giving Rush way too much credit

[Inuca]

17. BS

SHe was always the heavy favorite in PA, the issue was by how much.

[book_worm]

21. all the polls showed Hillary ahead in PA--only one had Obama ahead

check out pollster.com--it's really easy to check.

[geek tragedy]

24. Only one--the AWFUL Zogby, has him ahead in IN. n/t

[thewiseguy]

26. There are too many variables at play in today. Independents and Republicans are a big factor

And some polls differ on the amount of support that candidates receives from each of these categories.

[Name removed]

40. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[thewiseguy]

42. How is this guy still posting on DU?

[Hoof Hearted]

43. For whatever reason...

[MADem]

8. Uh ..."wise?" guy--candidates do not CAMPAIGN on election day.

She was in BOTH states yesterday.

Good grief.

[thewiseguy]

23. I suppose you mean holding rallies. Campaigning is not always about holding rallies.

[MADem]

33. Candidates don't CAMPAIGN on election day. It's poor form.

They GOTV, if anything. But they don't campaign.

[Hepburn]

14. The girls have the momentum???

:puke: Girls???

[Erin Elizabeth]

27. I don't get that, either.

So all women are for Hillary?

No.

And we're all "girls?"

No.

Barf, indeed.

[MadBadger]

36. They are probably talking about the other candidates in NC. Perdue and Kagan as well.

[Aloha Spirit]

16. Momentum or not, 25% of the votes are already in, and Obama's up by 15% there...

So even if she is down by 5% TODAY, that will be a 7.5% loss overall.

[Name removed]

39. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[hell-bent]

45. Do you have some kind of inside information? WTF!

[Aloha Spirit]

46. Early voting was polled, and the numbers are very uniform.

[greguganus]

30. "the girls"? Wonder if they will later say "the black people have the momentum". n/t

[MonkeyFunk]

31. good news!

She tends to close strong and got a lot of late undecideds.

[TahitiNut]

35. So, if Obama wins by 9.1%, is that the same kind of "double digit win" as Pennsylvania?

:eyes:

[MadBadger]

He just needs to win 54.51 % of the vote.

[Zodiak]

37. Does anyone trust her "internals"?

After all, she under-reported her debt and greatly exaggerated her gains in $$.

She also tried to hide 24 million of her husband's income.

I do not trust any number that comes from the Clinton camp...it is all spin with them and "perception management".

[redstate_democrat]

56. Not to mention the fact that

Mark Penn's company is doing the polling and they are notoriously stupid.

[Lerkfish]

58. isn't Mark Penn her internal pollster? that says enough right there.

[grantcart]

41. PPP has been very wild this year - btw who is this blogger?

[ecstatic]

44. Is this sarcasm?

Last I checked, a loss is still a loss. :shrug:

[BootinUp]

47. If she takes NC, I will have to record the Big Dawgs

victory speech.

[snooper2]

48. hmm...Stupid Bolton on A.M. radio this morning...

said the clinton camp was expecting to lose by double digits in North Carolina...

And he is pushing for her to win both to expand Rush's bullshit..

[TexasObserver]

49. When the delegates are counted, Obama wins today.

When the delegates are counted for Indiana and North Carolina, Obama will pick up a few, and there will be 187 less delegates in play.

That's the real story. Everything else is fluff.

[EFerrari]

51. the girls?

:shrug:

[PBS Poll-435]

55. (o) (o)

[EFerrari]

63. And this is what passes for a pro-woman campaign.

:rofl:

[PBS Poll-435]

67. Yep!

[dbmk]

57. He's speaking about the local candidate I think.

[EFerrari]

62. Prepubescent local candidates?

Whatever. lol

[Pawel K]

52. Meanwhile the math still proves she can't win the nom. But that doesn't matter to you, does it?

[Evergreen Emerald]

53. Does it matter to you that the math shows NEITHER can win?

Why do you all constantly ignore that?

[Pawel K]

59. That's absolutely untrue

unless you actually thought that Huckabee still had a chance to win past super tuesday?

Here is your math:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5843441&mesg_id=5843441

Unless you want to explain to me how in the world Obama can't get 28% of the remaining SDs then the math stands. And that math shows Clinton can not and will not win.

[dbmk]

60. Who will win then? If neither can win?

Who said anything about the pledged delegates only? The "neither can win" is getting rather old.

Have you done the numbers? If not I suggest you do. It will probably be a wakeup call.

For all thats commendable about supporting a candidate, it strikes me that not many of Hillarys supporters have a clear overview over what the situation is in pure numbers. And how many SDs she has to convince to turn this around. And how many of those SDs that will go to the winner of the pledged delegates. Which will be Obama, come Oregon.

When today is tallied up and Obama gets a small delegate gain, the MSM story will not be good for Hillary.

[Lerkfish]

65. some clinton supporters are math-aphobic.

don't ask them to look at the numbers.

[Lerkfish]

64. we're too busy not paying attention to the one losing in all categories

to worry about it.

[bunnies]

54. Who the hell are "the girls" ???

hmm. On second thought, I think I saw a photo of "the girls" in another thread.

[dbmk]

61. Hillary - and Bev Perdue mentioned in the same story, I suspect

[Thrill]

66. I don't believe it. I live in NC. Its going BIG BIG for Obama today

[Triana]

68. If Obama doesn't win NC by a bajillion points, then NC doesn't count!!!

(c) Hillary

:sarcasm: