Camp Clinton Spin: A Win Was a Win in PA, But Margins Matter in NC, IN. Obama Camp Expects IN Win!

[tekisui]

With less than 24 hours remaining until Indiana and North Carolina voters head to the polls, Hillary Clinton's campaign seems to be trying to lower expectations using arguments similar to those they dismissed before last month's Pennsylvania primary.

Opening a press conference call Monday, campaign strategist Geoff Garin spoke about the prediction in a leaked memo from Barack Obama's campaign that he would win Indiana and North Carolina, and he touted Clinton's ability to close the gap in recent polls in those states.

"An important way to judge this is the progress we've made over the course of those past couple weeks," Garin said. He pointed to polls in North Carolina that had Clinton down by 20 points several weeks ago; she's since cut that lead by more than half.

The Obama camp's memo, which became public in early February, has accurately predicted the winner in all but one caucus or primary since Super Tuesday, including his losses in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Texas. It's unclear why Obama's predictions are carrying so much weight now, when Team Clinton argued at every opportunity that Pennsylvania also was a must-win for Obama, although his campaign didn't see things that way.

"I want everyone to have the facts," Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson said in response to a question from RAW STORY about the dueling arguments. "And it is a fact that the Obama campaign predicted victory in Indiana and North Carolina."

Every campaign tries to set favorable expectations, particularly in the days and hours before a big contest, but the Clinton camp's efforts to pre-spin a closer-than-expected finish in North Carolina in particularly striking when contrasted with her advisers arguments before Pennsylvania.

There the situation was virtually reversed. Clinton had held leads of about 20 points several weeks before the election, which Obama whittled down to a single-digit margin of victory in the Keystone State's primary on April 22. Before Pennsylvania's vote, Clinton's advisers scoffed at the notion that Obama's ability to close the gap could give him momentum even if he didn't win the vote.

Wolfson said the day before Pennsylvania's vote that a win was a win, regardless of whether their margin of victory was a single vote or 100,000 votes. Clinton won with a margin of 9.2 percent, or more than 200,000 votes.

more at link: http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Dueling_spin_from_Team_Clinton_0505.html

[nichomachus]

1. The shameless hypocrisy continues

[jsamuel]

2. Has Clinton outspent Obama 2.5 to 1 in NC?

Truthfully, I think that was one of the main arguments for why Obama closing the gap in PA was not good enough.

[nichomachus]

4. But he's not out smearing her day and night

It costs him money to try to counter her Rove-style campaign.

And, if she had any money, believe me -- she'd be trying to outspend him. It's just that she'd destitute.

[LSparkle]

3. I read somewhere that, since there are more than twice as many delegates in NC

He can lose Indiana by as much as 10 points and only win NC by as few as 5 and
still the NET RESULT in terms of delegates will be NO CHANGE. Media may try
to spin it differently, but in order for her to make any progress with him vis-a-
vis delegates, she has to win Indiana by MORE THAN 10 and he has to win NC by
FEWER THAN 5 (or lose it).

Current polls show her up by 5 in IN and him up by 7 in NC. If these are
the results tomorrow, THERE WILL BE NO CHANGE IN THE DELEGATE MATH.

[rocktivity]

5. 38 points (69% of the vote) is the margin of victory Hillary will need

in ALL NINE of the remaining contests to "change the delegate math."

43-point or more margin of victory = blowout

38 - 42 points = a "real" win

30 - 37 points = good, but not good enough

11 – 29 points = a wash

5 - 10 points = useless

1 - 4 points = concession speech


If Obama wins NC and gets at least 40% of IN, he can clinch the pledged delegate lead by May 20 even if he gets only 30% of WV and KY (which is entirely possible). As for PA, Hillary didn't really accomplish anything because she didn't hit her "magic number" of 65% of the vote. Obama wasn't after a win in PA, but 45% of the vote: by hitting HIS "magic number," he raised Hillary's to 69% and reduced his to 40%.

:headbang:
rocknation

[LSparkle]

6. It's shameless the way the media is spinning these races ...

They're saying that ANY win in Indiana will be vindication for her, and
that if he DOESN'T win NC by double digits, it'll be a loss. It's almost
to the point of CRIMINAL the way they're mischaracterizing these contests.

[tekisui]

7. Kick for Obama!