Final Survey USA NC Poll: O: 50; C 45

[kennetha]

http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=news/local&id=6123227">Poll: Obama clings to small lead over Clinton

I think with a strong turn-out in small towns and rural counties, Clinton can pull off an upset.

Go Hillary!

[jsamuel]

1. amazing considering she was -25% before PA

[onenote]

13. amazing considering she was up 24 points in NC

in November.

And, you might try being consistent and comparing polls from the same organization. If you did that, you'd see that Survey USA has never had Obama more than 10 points up and has had him up by five points since the end of April -- in other words, HRC hasn't gotten any movement in the last two weeks.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html#polls

[jsamuel]

20. in 2007

The point is just two weeks ago she was down 25 points. Sighting a poll in November of 2007 does not change that.

[onenote]

22. point is that you are comparing different polls.

The previous Survey USA poll had Obama up by...5 percent, same as now. The one before that had him up by 9 percent. So at most, he's dropped 4 percent since April 19/21 in the Survey USA.

The poll that had him up by 25 was PPP for the April 19-20 period. A week later (april 26/27) he was by 12 up in that poll. Over the last eight days he's only dropped to 10 percent in that poll, and a ten percent win would be quite respectable.

[jsamuel]

23. Yes, there will only be one outcome to which all the polls will be compared.

So, if she does lose by 5%, if you look at the PPP poll, then she would have come from down 25% to down by 5%. But, whatever, everyone knows that Obama was supposed to win NC for a while now and the campaign predicted an IN win as well.

[onenote]

24. if she wins IN its not an upset. And if she loses NC its not an upset.

Of course, she really needs to win them both.

[jsamuel]

26. Well, I think that it would be an upset for her to come within 5 in NC.

And considering the Obama campaign was playing up a win in Indiana, I think that a win, while not wholly unexpected, does highlight that the Obama campaign expected a different outcome.

[PBS Poll-435]

Wow. This is certainly going to be closer than Indiana

Indiana is IN THE BAG.

[book_worm]

4. I don't know some polls show that one is tightening too.

Insider-Advantage has Clinton up in Indiana 47-44 down from a 7-point Clinton lead. Other polls have NC for Obama by a slightly larger margin. Both states show a large undecided among African-Americans who may trend to Obama given his performance in other states.

[PBS Poll-435]

6. I am going to defer to SUSA on Indiana.

Clinton +12 with Obama failing to crack 45%

[hell-bent]

16. Take another sip of that special drink.

If she even gets close in NC, BO will get out of the race. He is young enough to run in 8 years. And, just think, his supporter's pimples will be gone by then. :rofl:

[Avalon6]

2. Obama is already up big in early voting

[PBS Poll-435]

3. Is there a mechanism for buyer's remorse?

:hide:


J/K

[Austinitis]

14. He always is, but that it doesn't usually matter

As far as I can tell it's yet to indicate anything about how the final race turns out. Maybe Obama supporters are just less likely to procrastinate?

[NJSecularist]

5. Wow. Obama has collapsed in North Carolina.

He was leading by 30 points just last week.

Now Hillary might have a chance to get within a few points.

Go Hill! :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo: :woohoo:

[kennetha]

9. He hasn't really collapsed

He just hasn't moved. If you look at all the polls his highest number, which he reaches in only two or three surveys is like 57 or 58. He's coming at between 48 - 51 in just about all polls.

I say he finishes just below 50% and Hillary finishes just above 50% for a narrow win 50.5 - 49.5 for our girl

[PBS Poll-435]

10. That would be devastating.

Isn't NC "custom-designed" for an Obama win?

:rofl:

[onenote]

17. No, a collapse would be going from 24 up to losing -- which is what happened to HRC in NC

Your intellectual dishonesty is quite impressive. If you want to compare the Survey USA poll that shows HRC within 5 of Obama to earlier polls, you should compare it...think about it....to earlier Survey USA polls. Those polls showed HRC ahead by 24 points last November and have never shown Obama with more than a 10 point lead and have not shown him losing any ground since late april.

But, hey, funny math is your specialty.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_primary-275.html#polls

[jefferson_dem]

25. Have you lost your mind?

Hillary and Obama +1 since last SUSA poll.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d4d1bc7e-32d4-438e-8143-75c8b25b3435

[ps1074]

7. It will be the same margin as PA

Only this time Obama will win.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. HRC By Eight In IN/BHO By Five In NC

~

[tekisui]

19. Did you see about Obama Camp's leaked memo. expected him to win both?

They reportedly have only gotten one contest wrong. They were right in OH, TX, and PA, predicting loses for Obama as well.

"Opening a press conference call Monday, campaign strategist Geoff Garin spoke about the prediction in a leaked memo from Barack Obama's campaign that he would win Indiana and North Carolina, and he touted Clinton's ability to close the gap in recent polls in those states."

http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Dueling_spin_from_Team_Clinton_0505.html

[Iceburg]

11. I guess that is why Mr. Dithers is hinting that he may go on O'Reilly's show/nt

[mnhtnbb]

12. Be reminded that Kerry/Edwards were within 5% of Bush by poll one week before 2004 election

Nothing would surprise me tomorrow.

On edit: And Bush/Cheney ended up taking NC by 13%. Hanky-panky? Maybe.

[demokatgurrl]

15. What makes this "final"- are we killing all the pollsters? n/t

[Secret_Society]

18. Umm...Final, as in last, SUSA poll of NC

[MattNC]

21. black vote at 32%?

not likely

[Quixote1818]

27. It seems SUSA has been closer than the other polls. nt

[jefferson_dem]

28. Generally, yes. But SUSA has had some duds. Their final MO poll had Hillary up 11.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=622890d0-5da5-4d9b-ad12-c5bded4bfc78

Oopsie.

[Quixote1818]

29. I meant they were the out-lier this time around. nt