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How Is Kerry Doing In Comparison To Other Challengers

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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 05:33 PM
Original message
How Is Kerry Doing In Comparison To Other Challengers
Here's the link to Gallup....


It appears all challengers who came out of their conventions with a lead went on to win....

http://gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=1210
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Merusault Donating Member (173 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 05:57 PM
Response to Original message
1. 2004 bears some similarities to '80 and '92
I think that it's very possible that the post-convention bounce for K/E will hold all the way through to November, like Reagan in 1980 and Clinton in 1992. If the Repub convention doesn't bring Bush within a few points or ahead, Kerry will win.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 05:57 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. I Hope So
NT
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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 05:59 PM
Response to Original message
3. That's right
Edited on Mon Jul-19-04 06:22 PM by lancdem
and Kerry's ahead even before the convention.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 05:59 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. It's A Little Scary...
Too good to be true....
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IndianaGreen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 05:59 PM
Response to Original message
4. Kerry has a lead before the Convention
I don't think that has happened too often in the past. We would have to look at FDR to see something similar.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 06:11 PM
Response to Original message
6. In 1964 LBJ Was Beating Goldwater By 49% At One Point..
Imagine your candidate is down by 49%....
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Gothmog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 06:23 PM
Response to Original message
7. News is encouraging but lets not get over confident
It is still a long way to November 2 and we can not afford to get over confident. Rove has dirty tricks planned and Bush will not go away without a fight.

That being said, these are nice trends and facts.
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JI7 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 06:26 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. agree
shows we are on the right path but we have to still keep aware and ready to deal with whatever may happen .
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The Zanti Regent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 07:50 PM
Response to Original message
9. ...except Dukakis
Remember when Mike was 18 points up over Bush?

Then came Willie Horton, and Bernie Shaw's knife in the back called THE KITTY QUESTION...
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 08:02 PM
Response to Reply #9
12. The Duke Wasn't The Challenger
but your point is well taken....
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notbush Donating Member (616 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 10:39 PM
Response to Reply #12
23. The Duke wasn't the challenger??????
He sure wasn't the incumbent.
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salonghorn70 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 08:29 PM
Response to Reply #9
16. It Wasn't Shaw's Fault
It was a fair question. Dukakis stabbed himself in the back. Dukakis was possibly one of the worst candidates that we have ever nominated. He did not have a clue about how to run a Presidential campaign.
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osaMABUSh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 07:58 PM
Response to Original message
10. I don't see the link/article that you refer to
Anyway, we do have history on our side. The voters are down on Bush and once they find Kerry acceptable it's game, set, and match.
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 08:01 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. Just click on it.....
NT
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osaMABUSh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 08:10 PM
Response to Reply #11
14. this is all I get (nothing about this topic)
Gallup Poll Election History
The World's Oldest and Most Accurate Public Opinion Poll
The Gallup Poll has reported the standings and comparative strengths of U.S. presidential candidates on a continuous basis since the organization's founding in 1935.
The record of accuracy achieved by Gallup in these "horse-race" or "head-to head" measurements is unsurpassed. For example, in the sixteen presidential elections since 1936, the deviation between Gallup's final pre-election survey figures and the actual election results is 2.2% and, since 1960, only 1.5%.

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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 08:16 PM
Original message
Look To The Left Under Election History
NT
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 08:16 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. Look To The Left Under Election History
NT
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osaMABUSh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 08:32 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. Ok, thanks. One more stupid question:
What is NT ?
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 08:40 PM
Response to Reply #17
19. I Don't Know
Just when people leave this part blank they put NT....
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osaMABUSh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 10:10 PM
Response to Reply #19
21. That's beautiful - an acronym that means nothing
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Kal Belgarion Donating Member (247 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 11:08 PM
Response to Reply #21
27. NT means "No Text [in the message]" (NT)
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Downtown Hound Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 10:52 PM
Response to Reply #17
25. Here's a little something that might help you
dug.seattleactivist.org/#1

It's a glossary of DU terms. NT means No text. It implies that the central theme of the post is all in the headline, and that nothing more needs to be said.
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Inland Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 08:03 PM
Response to Original message
13. Yeah, but this year is weird
Anti Bush sentiment, right wing or flaccid media, a number of identifiable battleground states, and an adminstration that is so craven and amoral that we can't even imagine how it will manipulate the election. Its going to be a unique election.
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salonghorn70 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 08:33 PM
Response to Original message
18. Fascinating Stuff
If you are a political junkie like me, then all of that history is just fascinating. Sometimes we forget that the vote in 1980 was 47-44-8.Anderson, a moderate Repub, was the Nadar of his day?
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Hippo_Tron Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 09:14 PM
Response to Original message
20. My dad has an interesting opinion on this
Despite the fact that Kerry is up and that Bush is having trouble, he thinks that it will be dead even by the time November 2 rolls around. His theory is based on the fact that we are dealing with the lowest and most well funded right wing attack machine ever. There is no attack or tactic that is too low for these people. He also thinks that a week before the election he'll have Tom Ridge raise the threat level to red and claim that there are imminent threats on polling places in highly democratic areas. These poll numbers are encouraging, especially since this is a president who once had 70% approval ratings, but we need to stay on our guard and not let up until the polls close on November 2nd.
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osaMABUSh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 10:16 PM
Response to Reply #20
22. If they roll Tom (Mr. Excitement) Ridge out a week before the
election then that'll be a sign of true desperation.

The recent attempt by Ridge to scare us about Election Day terra was widely seen as politically motivated to take Kerry/Edwards out of the spotlight.
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fujiyama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 10:40 PM
Response to Original message
24. I figure
Edited on Mon Jul-19-04 10:41 PM by fujiyama
as long as no major events occur (pulling Osama out, terrorist attack that isn't averted, free and fair elections in FL as well as elsewhere), then Kerry should win. Kerry has the edge in the EC right now, but it's still very close.

Plus, as we all know the people (if you can call them that) in office right now are willing to go at any length. I'm not a MIHOPer, but I wouldn't be surprised if a terrorist attack takes place at a convenient time (just ignore any warnings) or if they pull Osama out of their hat (payback for all the military aid and debt relief the administration has given Pakistan).

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Nicholas_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 10:59 PM
Response to Original message
26. Another thing has happened that is sort of unprecedented
A recent Rasmussen polls is now showing that even people who plan to vote for Bush beleive that Kerry is going to beat him. There has never been a case in which a plurality of those who planned to vote for the incumbent themselves beleived that their candidate would lose to the opposition. This is a serious problem for Bush. A majority of his own supporters beleve that Kerry will beat him. When your own supporters lose faith in your ability to win you are going to lose.
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