How Big A Lead Will The Great Kerry-Edwards Team Have After The Convention

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Poll question: How Big A Lead Will The Great Kerry-Edwards Team Have After The Convention

Poll result (66 votes)
1-3%	(12 votes, 18%)	Vote
4-6%	(12 votes, 18%)	Vote
6-9%	(29 votes, 44%)	Vote
10-14%	(9 votes, 14%)	Vote
>15%	(4 votes, 6%)	Vote

[R3dD0g]

1. 6-9 after the Dem convention

1-2 after the Repuke convention.

And 1.5 on Nov 3.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. 6-9% Would Be Nice

Carter came out of his 76 convention with a 33% lead...


That would be nicer but a tad bit pollyannaish....

[lancdem]

4. There aren't enough undecided voters

to give Kerry a huge bounce. He's already 4-6 points ahead.

[earthside]

9. Right, Not Enough Undecided

This is such an atypical electorate. The nation really is fair evenly divided among the partisans. So in my estimation a 6 to 7 point lead this cycle is equivialnt to a 10 percent lead pre-2000.

The thing to watch for is moderate Republicans and 'Goldwater conservatives' (ie. social libertarians, fiscally responsible Republicans) beginning to leave the Bush camp, move into 'undecided', before the leap to Kerry. That could start happening after the Democratic Convention. If there are signs of that, then it is a blow-out for Kerry.

By the way, isn't it odd that just one month or so before his coronation, Bush, an incumbent, unchallenged pResident must shore up his base with appeals to gay bashing and other Christian fundamentalist culture issues? I think that is one sign of the trouble Rove must be finding in his own polls.

[Doosh]

5. no way

33%, you've got to be kidding, and he almost lost in 1976. what caused the lead to shrink like that?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. Go to Gallup...

He was actually leading Ford 60% to 27% after the convention...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. I Was Eighteen At The Time But Followed Politics Closely

Carter made some mistakes but I think much of his lead was suprerficial... The proverbial mile wide and foot deep syndrome....



I can enumerate his "mistakes" if you really want....

[Rowdyboy]

11. The Playboy "Lust in My Heart" interview

for one.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. The "Ethnic Purity " Remark And The Black Guy Who Couldn't

Get Into Carter's Church For Another...

[Gman]

3. 6 - 9 pts

there are only 6 - 8% undecided right now. Anything more will mean Kerry is cutting into Bush's center leaning base.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Don't Forget Every Challenger Who's Been Ahead At This Point

Has Gone On To Win The Last Fifty Years....

[Hippo_Tron]

22. Don't forget that 2000 was the only election stolen in 50 years

We are dealing with a very tough enemy this time around.

[Zynx]

20. While there may not be very many undecideds, a lot of Bush's support is

soft and could peal away.

[Worst Username Ever]

7. Seeing as how NO AMOUNT OF BAD NEWS

can seem to put a dent in Bush's base, I am going to assume that the converse is true as well, no amount of good/happy news for Kerry can give him a very big bump. I think we are doomed to a close (although successful) race.

[IndianaGreen]

13. I honestly expect a lead of over 15 points

The Convention is a great opportunity to present a coherent message to the entire nation. The Democratic message is far more hopeful and optimistic that whatever divisive shit the GOP will stage in NY.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. But The Sheeple Aren't As Prescient As Us

-

[IndianaGreen]

23. Everyone I know that voted for Bush in 2000, with one fundie exception

are voting for Kerry this year because of the way Bush has screwed things up. That's 9 Bush votes that are switching to Kerry.

If the same thing is happening elsewhere, we could see a landslide.

[AndyTiedye]

15. You Don't Have Entries for Negative Numbers

Instead of covering the convention, the media may be covering the Boston Police picketing it.
Kerry and the delegates wouldn't even be able to get into to the convention without crossing a picket line.
It would be a no-win situation for Kerry -- an unmitigated disaster.
All that nice prime-time coverage of Democrats and our platforms,
the only chance we ever to present it during the entire campaign,
would go out the window and be replaced with stuff they can easily spin for Bush*.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
> Nee said the union would escalate its protest plans for the convention week and would reconsider its earlier decision not to picket outside the convention site itself.<snip>

This may have been the plan all along, with the recent back-and-forth of negotiations
only to keep it in the news.

We won't find out what Rove is promising the Boston cops until next year, if then.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. I Have Faith They Will Settle It

And the mayor's a Dem... The mayor has the power to give them a better contract not the pres....

[incapsulated]

17. Lower your expectations

With the dramatic cutback in primetime coverage to a measly 3 hours, previous big bumps don't apply. The less people see of the convention, the less they will be influenced by it. It's an infomercial and taken in small doses, will not have the great effect it has in the past.

I see this as part of the media conspiracy against us.

The rethugs don't need a big bump, they are planning an october surprise. I don't know whether they want chaos in the city during the convention or they don't, at this point. I can see it working for or against them either way. If there is, it will overtake their convention coverage, though.

[BootinUp]

24. don't be mad

[osaMABUSh]

18. We're at 3 to 8 % now so 10% is realistic

As long as the trend continues up no matter how small the lead I think we are in good shape because of the 90% who aren't changing their minds.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

19. 2%

and everybody here will think the sky is falling. Then the numbers will stay solid until the GOP convention, and after that it will be a dead heat until election day.

The country is split right down the middle. There is virtually no room for the numbers to move. So, both bounces will be very small or may not even happen at all.

[Zynx]

21. 9-10 points and it will only go down slightly.

I really think we will win in the end by 5-6 points.

[fujiyama]

25. I'll be conservative (lol only in this case)

and say it'll be a small lead. I agree that there isn't much room for a big bounce. It seems as though many have already decided, so I'll say it'll be a lead of maybe 4-5 points.

I really think that Kerry will win the popular vote regardless by 2-3 points. He'll rack up huge leads in states like Illinois, CA, and New York.

I'm not quite as optimistic about the EC (there's a lot of potential for fraud in states like OH and FL), but he has a good chance. I'm also worried about Oct surprises and whatnot.