Tomorrow will be a wash.

[cali]

At least that's my best guess. Obama will win NC by approximately 10 and Hillary will win IN by 8. Both will proclaim victory. They'll both parse the results. The only real question will be what will SDs do? I think if those are the results, Obama will benefit from having survived Wright and will get a bunch more SD endorsements, but not a full bore flood. We'll stagger along to the WV primary next week where Hill will win by 20+ points and then on to Oregon and KY on the 20th. Obama will win Oregon by at least 10 and Hill will have another blowout in KY. Obama will reach the "Pelosi number" and get a significant amount of SD endorsements for that. And finally we'll go to PR on June 1 and SD and Montana on June 3. Hillary will win PR. Obama will end the primary season by winning the last two. Within a week he'll have enough SD endorsements to push him over the 2024 mark. Hillary may go for the nuclear option or not on May 31, but it won't work.

It's almost over.

Hallelujah.

[spinbaby]

1. That's what I'm afraid of

How much longer can this go on without a decision?

[cali]

3. As long as it's over by June 21st or so

I think we'll be fine. And that's only 6 weeks away.

[nomaco-10]

7. Six weeks is an eternity in this campaign cycle....

more than enough time to further tear this party apart. I wish I shared your optimism. As time goes on hil gets more desperate and she has already proven time and again that she will stop at nothing.

[truebrit71]

2. I disagree...but either way she will run out of money before she runs out of venom...

....Even if tomorrow is a wash ( and that is still very much up in the air) the math will simply get harder for her and her potential donors to ignore...She has a MASSIVE debt and has nowhere to go but down...

I think that tomorrow will be the day that ends this campaign...

[jaxx]

5. I hope you're right.

I never thought I'd be sick of electioning, but I am.

[Hepburn]

20. Unfortunately, I do not think she will ever run out of venom....

...that seems to be a way of life with her.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

4. A tie virtually guarantees a pledged delegate win for Obama. nt

[BigDDem]

6. Indiana = 'tiebreaker'

[cali]

9. how so?

[BigDDem]

17. Ask your hero, he's the one who said it!

:rofl:

[cali]

19. sorry, I have no heros- at least not in this race

and I think independently. So I'm asking you, how is it a tiebreaker. You're the one that said it in this thread.

[BigDDem]

23. Barack Obama said Indiana would be the tiebreaker!!!

[BlueIdaho]

33. Yes - between PA NC and IN. best 2 out of three...

HRC won PA - he is likely to win NC so that makes IN the tie breaker.

[DemVet]

8. It'll hopefully go to August 28....

...where the SD's will see the writing on the wall that Hillary would make a better Nominee than Barry.

[cali]

10. It won't.

SDs know that if it goes to the convention, whoever is the nominee walks out mortally wounded. If by some chance it does go to the convention, I strongly hope Hill is the nominee.

[Hepburn]

27. So that's why they are switching from her to him aleady?

Hint: Don't hold your breath. It seems like most know that having Hilly as the Dem nom would be another Dukasis election for us.

Obama can take it away from McCain ~~ Hilly cannot. And that is exactly why we are seeing the SDs starting to go to Obama.

[Yurovsky]

35. And most of the SDs have elections to win themselves...

if not this year, in the near future. Stabbing your most loyal bloc of voters in the back (African-Americans) will not make getting re-elected any easier, and despite the fear of the Clintons, most politicians are far more concerned about their own political career.

Barring some type of actual scandal (not the faux-scandal Rev. Wright BS), the SDs are not going to flock to HRC and destroy the party and their own careers. Just not going to happen. The media wants to milk this for as long as possible to keep the ad dollars rolling in, but no one with the ability to do simple math realistically thinks HRC is going to win this.

[billyoc]

11. I'm going to pray that the DLC attempts this "nuclear option".

Let them show their true face for all to see at last.

[TheCowsCameHome]

12. I think O will pull a surprise in IN

Just a hunch.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

13. I really hoped Guam would be "the firewall". Guess not ...

:hi:

[Terran]

14. HRC will continue to fail to close the deal

...while Obama will continue to maintain his lead and the slow-motion trickle of SD's to his side. That at least may make some more SD's commit sooner than later to Obama. One can only hope.

[mmonk]

15. A wash except for the fact the runway is getting shorter

and like you say, hallelujah.

[flpoljunkie]

16. NBC's Chuck Todd and company: "The Math Game"

First thoughts: The math game
Posted: Monday, May 05, 2008 9:17 AM by Domenico Montanaro

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro

*** The Math Game: Both candidates seemed very exhausted during their morning show appearances on TODAY and Morning Joe. And that probably isn’t surprising -- tomorrow is the last BIG primary day. Despite the fact that another month of contests is still on the docket, nearly half of all remaining delegates will get handed out tomorrow. And the math will be a lot more crystal clear after tomorrow, both in delegates and the popular vote. Following Guam, there are now 404 pledged delegates up grabs, and 187 of them will be decided on Tuesday. Plus, per our count, there are 268 undeclared superdelegates. Here are the basics of what each candidate needs: Assuming he wins half of the delegates tomorrow (93), Obama needs just 38% of ALL remaining delegates to get to the magic number of 2,025. If Clinton wins 94 delegates on Tuesday, she will need 66% of all remaining delegates. In addition, assuming that delegate split tomorrow, then Clinton will need 85% of all remaining PLEDGED delegates to catch Obama for the lead in that category. Moreover, if Clinton simply wanted to cut Obama's pledged delegate lead to 100, she'd need to win 62% of all remaining delegates after tomorrow. As we've noted before, the math is certainly difficult for Clinton.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/05/05/980587.aspx

[Bensthename]

25. Wow, that is bad for Hillary..

I like ol' Chuck. He is my fave of all of the news pundits..

[powergirl]

26. Facts can hurt

but facts they are.

[powergirl]

18. Obama will have the net delegate lead for Tuesday - He already has a combined delegate lead

This will make the spread even larger and the chasm even greater between him and Sen. Clinton. NC has more delegates. On Tuesday he will get more popular vote and delegates and a larger lead. Cliton runs our of real estate and time.

[Bensthename]

21. NC is much bigger.. Hillary needs to win NC.

If she loses it will just put her that much further behind..

Tomorrow will give Obama more total votes and delegates..

[totodeinhere]

22. Maybe as an Obama supporter you should be a bit more optimistic.

I am predicting Obama by 15 in NC and by five in Indiana. As an Obama supporters I don't see why he can't win Indiana and most polls show it a tossup that could go either way. I look for all of the new voters that the Obama campaign registered in Indiana to make a big difference.

[truebrit71]

37. Plus the early voters were heavily in favour of Obama before the presstitutes went Rev Wright 24/7..

...

[NJSecularist]

24. If Obama is the frontunner who is almost guarenteed the nomination, why can't he win IN?

It's not a wash if Hillary wins IN. It just gives Hillary another reason to keep soldiering on and to take this to the convention.

When is Obama finally going to put Hillary away, since all the Obamafolk tell me that Obama is pretty much guarenteed the nomination? When is Obama finally going to win a state where there isn't a 20%-40% black population?

[Hepburn]

28. Better question:

If it is your position that Hilly is the better candidate ~~ why is she losing to Obama?

If she cannot beat Obama ~~ how in the hell can she beat McCain?

[NJSecularist]

30. She can't beat Obama because blacks are a large part of the Democratic primary electorate

And when Obama gets 90% of those votes by virtue of him being black, it's a big hurdle for Hillary to overcome.

But she will get 90% of black votes in November, along with more white working class votes, more Latino votes, more white woman votes, etc. That is why she can beat McCain in the general election.

[totodeinhere]

29. I reject the premise that he can't win Indiana. Let's wait for the votes to be counted first.

As far as states with high black populations go, so what? We are all Americans regardless of race and our votes count the same. It's not in the best interest of this nation to always be breaking voters down by ethnic groups.

[cali]

31. Indiana demographics are tailor made for Hilly

and no doubt, the Wright imbroglio has had a negative impact. She can keep soldiering on but her window of opportunity simply keeps shrinking. The only people that can't face that reality are hillbots. Oh, and Obama won Vermont by 21. Do you actually think that Vermont has a 20%+ AA population? Educate yourself. He won CT. He won Wisconsin. He won Colorado. He won Maine, Alaska, North Dakota, Minnesota, etc. Some of those are caucus states, but contrary to hillbot "logic", caucuses count. Some are primary states. I'm surprised that hillbots don't know that. Oh, and Obama will win Oregon, South Dakota and Montana, adding to the long list of very white states he's won. Try and stick with the facts. This is just too easy.

[NJSecularist]

34. Has he won any predominately white states since he's been vetted?

No. Ever since he's been asked tough questions by the media, his white numbers have tanked.

Vermont? Big deal. Jessie Jackson won the state in 1988.

Most of the states you listed are caucus states, and they don't count for much. In a primary format, Hillary would win the white vote in most of those states.

[cali]

36. lol. goal post moving- a hillfan triumph.

Obama did better with white voters in PA than in Ohio, so naturally enough you're wrong again. Furthermore, it's not up to the likes of you to decide what states and what processes count. too bad for you that caucuses absolutely count. And Obama will undoubtedly win primaries in Oregon, Montana and South Dakota. You've got nothing but a sinking candidate. Have fun going down with that ship. glug. glug. glug.

[NJSecularist]

40. Going from 35% to 39% among white voters is doing better?

Is 35% the amount of white vote we can expect to win in the general election with Obama as our nominee? :crazy: :crazy:

[cali]

43. comparing primaries with the general is a fool's game

and yes, 4 percent is better. And dems never win the majority of white voters in the general. What did Kerry get? 43%

[NeedleCast]

39. Hillary Was the Frontrunner for Two Years

She might as well have gone into Iowa wearing the "presumptive nominee" hat. With all her tactical advantages, why wasn't Hillary able to put this away on Super Tuesday? Listening to her speeches and interviews from last fall and all the "I am the 2008 Democratic nominee" crap, you'd think your girl would have been able to complete the very simple task of winning a competition that everyone had her picked to win.

As far as states without 20-40% black population, you don't have to look much further than Iowa. You know, the very first state to vote? Where, despite the fact that blacks make up a tiny percentage of the population, Obama mopped the floor with your girl.

African Americans make up 1% of the population in Maine. Obama beat Hillary by 19% there.
African Americans make up 1% of the population in Vermont. Obama beat Hillary by 20% there.
African Americans make up 6% of the population in Wisconsin. Obama beat Hillary by 19% there.
African Americans make up 1% of the population of North Dakota. Obama beat Hillary by 30% there.
African Americans make up 6% of the population of Kansas. Obama beat Hillary there by a crushing 48%.
African Americans make up 5% of the population of Colorado. Obama beat Hillary there by 35%.

This is a long ass list. Utah, Wyoming, Washington, Idaho, Nebraska, Missouri, Minnesota, Illinouis, Connecticutt

In fact, Obama has won almost as many states with under a 10% African-American population as Hillary has won total.

Any more stupid questions?

[NJSecularist]

41. Pretty much all of those states except for Wisconsin and Vermont are caucuses.

As much as the Obamabots tell us otherwise, caucuses don't count for much. They are not a meaningful projector of the general election.

[cali]

44. ack. hillbots. CT is not a caucus.

and nothing in a primary is a meaningful prediction of the general. Much as desperate and pathetic hillbots wish it weren't so caucuses count in getting the nomination, and that's what wer're discussing. Hillbots really need to pull themselves together.

[JPZenger]

32. New Photo of Obama with daughters at picnic yesterday

At Ft. Wayne yesterday.

[stevietheman]

38. Hillary's "nuclear option" is immaterial if Obama gets to 2,025. n/t

n/t

[TragedyandHope]

42. No one ever said it was going to be easy

This is like putting a man on the moon. We're fighting against forces of nature, history, conventional wisdom, entrenched political, corporate and media interests and the kitchen sink. We need a lot of forward momentum to reach escape velocity. And that's just the first step.

Then it's on to the General Election where things are going to get serious. We'll look back fondly at these days like the innocence of childhood.

Stay strong, America! GOBAMA!