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mermaid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 11:10 AM
Original message
Kerry 327, Bush 211
and this is per an obviously right-slanted pollster.

Check it out!!

http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

this week, Bush loses Ohio, Missouri, and Nevada!!

this week Virginia, Tennessee, and Louisiana move from Close Bush to REALLY Close Bush (he's losing ground in THREE Southern States!!)

Bush Losses Since 2000
NH, FL, OH, MO, NV, total electorals:67!!

Bye Bye, Bushie!!

Don't let the door hit you in the ass on your way out!!
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qazplm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 11:16 AM
Response to Original message
1. waay too early
dont get complacent, but it IS certainly much better to be ahead now then behind.

Makes Bush's re-election that much harder, but let's not get ahead of ourselves, still have RNC, DNC and debates to go plus possible October surprises...

It's gonna be close, real close. (and if it isn't then great ;))
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mermaid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 11:19 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. I Agree...but Better to Be Up Right Now!!
This puts Bushoe on the Defensive.

I'm not counting our chickens yet, but it sure looks good for the good guys!!
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THUNDER HANDS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 11:25 AM
Response to Reply #3
7. I don't know if it's better to be ahead now
It sets things up as Kerry's election to lose when it is, in reality, Bush's election to lose.

I'd rather be tied or slightly behind for a while. It will make Kerry less cautious and make him try harder at the end.

The thing I hate most is high expectations. If Kerry is supposed to be dominating Bush coming out of the convention, anything less than that will look (and be spun) as a Bush victory.

Keep the expectations low, and act suprised when Kerry pulls ahead in polls. And always remember that we have no idea why poll numbers rise and fall in the way that they do.

Things can change in a heatbeat.
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mermaid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 11:36 AM
Response to Reply #7
9. We Are Enegized
and the poll numbers show it.

We want Bush OUT!!!
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yellowcanine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 11:18 AM
Response to Original message
2. PA is a darker blue and VA, TN, and WV are light pink. Sweet!
May the trend continue. I actually feel that a slow but steady movement toward Kerry is better than a big bump each time there is a favorable event for Kerry.
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mermaid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 11:21 AM
Response to Reply #2
5. I Agree
Slow and steady gains are likely to hold. quick bumps based on knee-jerk reaction to events can be quickly undone.

Slow steady gains show more promise, in my opinion.

And I have done 6 years in polling/marketing research.
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Lefty Pragmatist Donating Member (430 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 11:20 AM
Response to Original message
4. Unlikely.
He has MO and FL going to K/E. One -- maybe -- not both.
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mermaid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 11:22 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. don't Matter
If We get all the Gore states, and either of those, we win!

And remember, this pollster is obviously rooting for a Bush victory...and yet he shows Bush getting crushed right now!!
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July Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 12:15 PM
Response to Reply #6
12. Yep.
Here's what I like about this guy's map. If his analysis of the polls is correct (big if, but his information seems to be up-to-date), Bush will need to win ALL of the "Solid Bush" states, ALL of the "Close Bush" states, and ALL of the "Really Close Bush" states, to get a total of 247 EVs, i.e., not enough to win. So, in addition to those, he has to get 23 more EVs from a state now leaning Kerry. Florida could do it, but that's only if he wins ALL of the others leaning for him, and among the Close and Really Close states are Tennessee, Arkansas, West Virginia, Missouri, Ohio, and Nevada. If he loses one of those to Kerry, he doesn't have enough EVs. If he wins PA, he can lose OH, but he can't lose any of the others except Nevada (only 5 EVs, would put him at just enough). In other words, he's got a tough row to hoe, which is dandy with me.

Of course, things may change. So far, though, it's looking good.

(If I've made any mistakes, feel free to correct them.)
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Lefty Pragmatist Donating Member (430 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 02:21 PM
Response to Reply #6
16. True.
Although in the latter case I think he's showing Kerry in the lead because he picked a methodology and now he's honestly holding to it. Frankly, I wish poll analysts on the left had as much integrity.

To be cynical, er, pragmatic, he may also be showing Kerry ahead to get GOP ops off their butts and into the battle. At least 50% of my friends are Republicans, and to a man they all think they are going to win.
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Spangle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 11:26 AM
Response to Original message
8. That blog on that site
"21 reasons Bush will win" is so Funny! It's a gota read. Just for entertainment reasons. I guess he/she has to hang onto something to keep going. In light of the polls and other data he/she is working with.
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mermaid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 11:36 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. that Blog
is why I say this polling site is being run by a Bush Cheerleader. and, yes, it makes for some amusing reading.
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phillybri Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 01:12 PM
Response to Reply #8
14. The guy that runs the site is a hardcore RWer...
He must be hating this!!! :-)
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shivaji Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 01:47 PM
Response to Reply #8
15. the RWer puposely omitted the single most important reason why
the right wingers are counting on Bush* victory in 2004....
BLACK BOX VOTING will be much much much higher percentage than in 2000!
But ofcourse they won't talk about it, since it is their secret weapon.
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Catfight Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 12:15 PM
Response to Original message
11. I predict an Orange alert this week!!! Watch this hand, while the other
creates some magic!
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faithnotgreed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 12:26 PM
Response to Original message
13. did you read who will visit * on november 2nd?? (according to blogger):

..... He will find out Nov 2 2004 at 11:37 PM EST that,Saturn the Planet of Loss and saddness was to visit him.

oh happy day for the rest of the world and sadness for * and co!


this blogger says openly he is an astrologer, and he says you can believe it or not.
he does offer to make a $10k wager on it....
i would assume he has won bets before!
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osaMABUSh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 02:55 PM
Response to Original message
17. Notice: Kerry didn't slip in any of his states
This is trending nicely. Keep up the hard work! Barely 3 1/2 months to go.
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Beetwasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 03:11 PM
Response to Reply #17
18. My Goodness, It Is Getting Close Isn't It?
Kerry's in damn good shape!
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wish_I_could_vote Donating Member (189 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jul-19-04 03:23 PM
Response to Original message
19. this weekend
I actually had a Republican, skinny uppity little thing, you know the type, inform me that I was mistaken. That President Bush, the greatest president of all time, was comfortably ahead in the polls. I sent her to several sites showing otherwise. She insisted I lied. That I lied while I called Bush a liar, and clearly Bush had never ever told a lie.
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