Is Obama in Bigger Trouble Than Anyone Thinks?

[2rth2pwr]

The latest CBS News/New York Times poll contains an interesting tidbit (pdf file) about a potential Obama-McCain match-up, particularly considering the tilt of the poll.

According to the poll,

"McCain now holds a three-point lead over Obama among women; last month, women gave Obama a 13-point margin."

As a point of comparison, the CNN exit poll after the 2004 presidential election showed Democrat John Kerry winning the women's vote by a three-point margin.

November's a long way off, but if that six-point swing among female voters holds up for McCain, it's a big, big development if Obama is the Dems' nominee.

The 16-point, one-month turnaround in the CBS News/New York Times poll -- in a poll where Dem respondents outnumber Repub respondents by about 9.6% -- might be even more significant as it also shows the Dems with a generic congressional lead of 18-points, the same predicted margin of victory for the Dems shown in the last CBS News/New York Times poll before the 2006 mid-terms -- a poll which missed the actual result by 12 points.

I suspect the 35.7% of the poll's respondents who self-identified as independents contain more Dem leaners than Repub leaners, which significantly increases the 9.6-margin the Dems enjoy in the poll.

As an historical note, in the 32 House elections since 1942, the Dems have never enjoyed an 18-point margin of victory in the aggregate House vote, coming close twice, in 1964 and again in 1974, when they won in historic elections by margins of 14.5% and 16.6% respectively, one about a year after the murder of President John F. Kennedy, and the other three months after the resignation of President Richard M. Nixon.

Meanwhile, the Gallup tracking poll has McCain with a six-point lead over Obama.

There's still a long way to go, but does this CBS News/New York Times poll mean that Barack Obama is in bigger trouble than anyone thinks?
http://www.theneweditor.com/index.php?/archives/7954-Is-Obama-in-Bigger-Trouble-Than-Anyone-Thinks.html

Keep fighting Hillary we need you..

[quantass]

1. NOT AT ALL -- Remember, we are in Primaries..wait till he starts GE THEN look at polls

Remind me again how many months we have before the GE? Of course these polls are going to fluctuate...remmeber, McCain isnt even on the air much while Obama is on 24/7....just wait till he begins his run on McCain...he will destroy him as he has done Hillary.

[Bigleaf]

6. Exactly. Wait until they can't ignore McLames gaffes? He's got a chronic case of foot-in-mouth

disease.

[JoFerret]

24. Worked out well for Boris Johnson though

.

[bigbrother05]

29. Brits tolerate an eccentric better than Americans

Also his opponent was the guy that put in fees to drive in London, po'd a lot of the voters.

[JoFerret]

40. That was one of the best things he did

Too bad Bloomberg was unable to do the same thing for NYC.

[goldcanyonaz]

2. GO HILLARY!

[scheming daemons]

3. GE polls in May are meaningless.....

Too far out to be meaningful.

[JoFerret]

25. Hold on to that thought

.

[The_Casual_Observer]

4. The wright thing has tainted obama

[quantass]

5. Hillary's life has tainted Hillary.

[goldcanyonaz]

7. Uh huh....

[The_Casual_Observer]

9. obama is tainted with by a crazy old bastard. It's all it took.

He's weak.

[Seeker30]

22. Michelle may be crazy...but a bastard?

[Mezzo]

53. exactly. They haven't even started on Sinclair and Rezko.

[philk17088]

30. hillary

is taint.

[2rth2pwr]

34. no she ain't.

[futureliveshere]

37. Not true. Please read this post to see the truth!!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5798932

[JoFerret]

54. And then there's the new pastor

just like the old pastor.

[Iceburg]

55. Not just Wright ...its the cast from the Rezko, Ali Ata et al cess pool as well./nt

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

8. These GE polls have been bouncing all over the place for months now

They are completely meaningless this far out.

[cliffordu]

10. Nope.

Fail

[MADem]

11. That headline is a massive OUCH. Massive. nt

[chill_wind]

13. Well the font size is, that's for sure ;-) n/t

[rg302200]

12. Keep Fighting Hillary???

For what? McCain's VP? She lost months ago, she just hasn't figured it out yet!

[BenDavid]

14. Truthfully speaking I agree with you that obama is in deep

trouble but we will really not get the real scoop until after tuesday night results. And I presdict it will not look good for obama.

[Triana]

15. John Kerry didn't have HILLARY nipping at his heels while fighting the Repub opposition

Obama has had this HILLARY albatross round his neck MUCH longer than Kerry had his Dem opponents running against him before he was declared the nominee.

In that CNN Exit poll you reference - it was AFTER the election and the Dem nominee had ALREADY BEEN DECIDED.

But at this time with Obama - Albatross Hillary McCain and their media and surrogates can't get their fangs out of Obama's jugular so he has to fight all that - not just a Republican opponent but ALSO a SECOND Republican opponent posing as a Democrat (Hillary).

I just don't see any comparison of now with Obama and with Kerry in 2004 in the SAME TIMEFRAME.

Obama has Hillary, the media, the GOP/Repigs, et al against him.

Hillary's only opposition right now is her own EGO. Not that that is any small thing, but it's still less opposition than what Obama has to contend with.

Given all this, I think Obama's doing fine. And I believe he will prevail. Whether he does or not, Ms. HERSELF ain't gettin this woman's vote.

[susankh4]

20. True. He did not have Hillary nipping at his heels.

And he STILL lost.

[VolcanoJen]

28. Kerry was also running against a semi-popular wartime president.

Bush was still polling above 50% job approval in November of 2004.

It's actually amazing that Kerry got as close as he did to winning, if you ask me.

[JeffR]

16. If this poll meant much, I'd be, well

ALARMED!

But it doesn't mean much, so I'm alright.:)

[bowens43]

17. If by trouble you mean 'the next president of the united states', yes, he is

[indimuse]

18. GOP uses Obama to boost Republican candidates

Xipe Totec (1000+ posts) Fri May-02-08 10:45 PM
Original message
GOP uses Obama to boost Republican candidates
Source: Associated Press

WASHINGTON - Turns out Louisiana and Mississippi weren't quite finished with the Democratic presidential campaign. Sen. Barack Obama won each state's primary earlier this year. But these days his face still appears in television ads in both states, this time from Republicans trying to turn him into a liability for Democrats in two looming special elections for long-held Republican seats.

Democratic victories would be a serious setback for Republicans. But it also would go a long way to reassure nervous Democrats, particularly undecided superdelegates, that Obama would not present a hardship to House or Senate candidates running in tough races.

Democratic losses would give Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton new ammunition to build her case for her presidential candidacy by questioning the sturdiness of Obama's coattails.



Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080503/ap_on_el_pr/obama_s...


HUGE Liability!

[susankh4]

19. I hate to say this, because I hate to stereotype....

but...

Women, ultimately, will vote with who makes them feel their families are safer. Not ALL women.... but I think a fair portion of them.

If they feel Mr. Obama will bring their sons home from Iraq... they will vote for that. Which explains his initial bounce among this demographic. But, if Mr. McCain can convince the female electorate that he is really a lefty who wants to "wave the white flag" to his friends in Hamas.... there is no way Obama can win.

If we, as Dems, don't do something to correct this "soft on terror" image of our party, and convince the people that the Dems will be tough enough to protect the U.S., while bringing the troops home, we are doomed to a miserable failure in November.

Don't think that Sen. Clinton doesn't get this. It is the psychology behind her "Ms. Tough Guy" image this past couple of weeks. She KNOWS what is about to happen. The shift toward McCain.

I am so sad. For what could have been.... if the Dems didn't have such a propensity to run themselves off the left cliff. But, at this point, I fully expect my party to give it all away to the RNC..... just waiting for the announcement.....

:cry:

[2rth2pwr]

26. If Hillary is our nominee, we will be fine in November.

[susankh4]

43. I know.

But it worries me that she may not be.

[Orsino]

21. McCain has maintained his popularity by napping in his mansion.

When he has to debate Obama, he will look like the rich old white male elitist he is, and not even his precious MSM will be able to save his feudalistic ass.

[Bensthename]

23. With only a couple of weeks till the Gen Election, what will Obama do?

Oh noooooooes.... It is too late for him.. He has lost..

[Vinca]

27. No one's running against McCain yet. nt

[madrchsod]

31. ---he`s finished-he should quit today

[2rth2pwr]

38. Wednesday seems more appropriate, it would be wrong to do that to NC and IN.

Wednesday or Thursday.

[RiverStone]

32. How much time do you spend trying to find negative Obama stories?

Better to tell us why you think Hillary can win, then trying to diss Obama with every post and over-stated headline....:think:

[2rth2pwr]

35. Not much time at all, they are all over the place.

DU is not the only destination on the web.

[fortyfeetunder]

33. Depends on what Americans really want

If Americans want four more years of what they experienced in the last eight, then they know who to vote for.

If Americans are perfectly happy sending their loved ones to a senseless Middle Eastern conflict, then they know who to vote for

If Americans want to continue living on the edge of being a third world country, then they know who to vote for.

Personally, I don't want any of this and will vote Democratic. I believe in change.

[2rth2pwr]

36. With Hillary in, everybody wins.

[onenote]

39. so why would people who would otherwise vote for HRC not also vote for Obama v. McCain

unless they really don't want those things.

[2rth2pwr]

41. I responded incorrectly, I should have said make Democrats happy.

[Maribelle]

42. Barack Obama is in bigger trouble than the Hillary haters would care to admit.

What the Obama cult refuses to even consider - half the Democrats in this country support Hillary and watch as her and her supporters consistently get treated like a piece of shit from the Obama cult.

Pushback is beginning to appear is places such as Rhode Island.

Just reading the ignorant Kentucky Derby posts here today has made me absolutely sick that these are Democrats doing this. And this comes on the heels of the ignorant racist posts yesterday over the fradulent YouTube video. What on earth will tomorrow bring? These tactics are absolutely deplorable and quite disturbing.

Obama is in big trouble.

[2rth2pwr]

46. Someone today said that Obama has the sociopath vote pretty much locked up,

I would have to agree.

[solidguild]

51. Yeah, Hillary is galvanizing the hopers and dreamers and true progressives among us

:sarcasm:

[mistertrickster]

44. You posted "Keep fighting, Hillary, we need you" What you meant to say is

"Obama, keep fighting Hillary. We need you."

Okay. Fixed now.

[rodeodance]

45. OP is not into the WORT game.

[bridgit]

47. yes...

[crimsonblue]

48. We need Hillary to what?

further fracture the party? keep her quixotic dream alive? screw the sink and toss in the fridge?

[dkf]

49. McCain has had a free ride. I'm not worried at all.

[BlooInBloo]

50. Man, where's Mark Twain when you need him?

[goletian]

52. no, the media is just in constant spin mode to keep the fight going.

either dem will win, obama is the presumptive nominee.

[CreekDog]

56. fighting what? she did much of the damage to Obama's poll numbers

Democrats listen to her.

If McCain was saying half the crap she was saying, more Democrats would ignore it.