If Obama proves that he can survive Wright by winning NC

[cali]

by more than 7 pts, and doesn't lose IN by more than 5, HIll's chances really will be nil. Zogby indicates that this may very well happen, and for those prone to jeering at Zogby he got PA and TX exactly right.

If Obama can do this, he'll have demonstrated his ability to prevail over really strong and potent attacks and guess who'll see that? That's right the SDs. And they will endorse him. It's clear that they're looking for the opportunity to do so.

A win in NC and making it close in IN, and this primary is functionally over.

Oh, and he'll have done it without running a truly disgraceful campaign a la Hillary.

He can do it.

[leftofcool]

1. I thought he had it in the bag win or lose NC and Indiana

[cali]

2. Really? you missed the post I wrote the other day about

the damage Wright has wrought, and how if Obama implodes in NC and IN, he's in big trouble? Funny, you posted in that thread. Why do you insist on putting words in my mouth. Please don't attrbute what other Obama supporters have said to me. You do it in virtually every response to any of my posts. It's a red herring, it's not honest and it shows you can't respond to what I'm actually saying.

[leftofcool]

5. Yes it is honest

If he has the most delegates as all of you claim, then he doesn't need NC or Indiana, no matter what effect Wright has on him. You Obama supporters have been screaming about "the math" for 2 months and now you are saying that your candidate may 'implode' over the Wright thing?

[cali]

21. I am NOT "you Obama supporters" I am responsible for what I say

not what other Obama supporters say. I have not ever written a post about The Math because I don't buy that the math is the totality of what will clinch the nomination. I wrote a post with hundreds of responses about how if Obama loses in Indiana and only ekes out NC, he's in trouble. And YOU posted in that thread. Disgustingly disigeuous and your unsavory habit of conflating all Obama supporters is pathetic.

Welcome to my slim ignore list. It's saved for only a few very "special", er, people.

[Labors of Hercules]

7. It isn't just her either...

What's up with people automatically responding to our posts with regurgitated stuff written by any random "Obama supporter"? It drives me insane.

[beezlebum]

9. OP isn't about winning the primary

it's about winning the image war on obama and his overcoming the bs wright attacks and proving that he's still able to come out on top.

[Yossariant]

3. Zogby had Clinton up 6 in PA on the day before the primary.

Insider Advantage got PA exactly right.

I think that's the one that has her up by 2 in NC.

[onenote]

23. you have a link to your claim about Zogby's PA poll

Because the last one shown on Realpolitics indicates that Zogby was more accurate than Insider Advantage.

And, by the way, today Insider advantage has Obama up by 5.

[NorthCarolina]

4. I hope he trounces her in both contests

this primary needs to be over now.

[zabet]

6. Living here in NC...

I seriously doubt he wins here like everyone thinks he will. IF he does win in NC, it will be by a margin of very low single digits.

[Blue_Roses]

12. I guess we'll have to see onTuesday.

and I look forward to it:D

[zabet]

13. Me too!

:hi:

[democrattotheend]

22. Where in NC are you?

[MADem]

8. He was supposed to have NC in the bag, and maybe take IN because it was next door.

Interesting shift in expectations.

[Jersey Devil]

10. I really don't think the margins matter

Before PA Obama was asked about Hillary's margin of victory in PA if she won it and he responded by saying something like, "A victory is a victory no matter by how much". He was widely quoted by the Hillary campaign for having said that when Hillary's 9+% victory was said by some detractors to be less than her expectations.

So, whether Obama wins NC by 1 pt or 10+ pts, a victory is a victory and in Indiana, whether he loses by 1 or more than 10 it will make little difference. The delegates will vary very little no matter what the margins are and that is the real issue, not expectations.

If it were early in the primaries I would agree that expectations are important. But there are so few delegates left to be chosen that at this point I believe the only issue is numbers. With a 7 pt win in NC and a 10 pt loss in Ind he gets another 93 delegates and Hillary would get 94, a net gain of one delegate. After that he can easily run out the clock on her.

[KittyWampus]

18. with a hillary win in Indiana he gets another week of shitty press.

[DU9598]

11. The race is already over

He is the nominee unless he loses every last race by upwards of 20 percent.

[KittyWampus]

16. No, the race is NOT over. He may have the nomination due to math, but Hillary WILL keep going

she will keep slamming him and driving his numbers down.

[kenny blankenship]

28. I think if he can get through the swearing in ceremony and step over the WH threshhold

without Hillary throwing a rolling block on him and shoving past him through the front door, then some people maybe are going to start saying "Hey this race is pretty much over!"

[BklynChick]

14. even if both are close, he moves forward and will get the nomination.

[KittyWampus]

15. He needs to win both upcoming states. Not for the nomination, but to capture a news cycle

[Romulox]

17. If this season has show us anything, it's that these arbitrary goalposts don't mean much.

This primary hinges more on the next gaffe or secret camera video gaffe than policy or primary results at this point.

[Zynx]

19. One thing to watch out with Zogby from what I've seen in the past is that his last

few days always are crazy in terms of the numbers. His last poll is usually pretty close to the mark, but a week or so before he is all over the place.

[Araxen]

20. The race is already over

Hillary has as much of a chance getting the Dem nomination as Ron Paul does the Repub nomination.

[Meshuga]

24. Win or lose

I am proud of his campaign.

[elizm]

25. Yes he can! :) nt

[NC_Nurse]

26. He's gonna win this part of NC quite easily. People here have not been

swayed by all the Wright hoopla. He's gonna have the Triangle hands down.

[Bensthename]

27. True.. Obama has won with out being a big brown stink pile like Hillary..

[Secret_Society]

29. A victory under +10 for Obama is a huge hit

NC is his PA...he had over a 20+ lead a couple weeks ago