Prediction: I think Obama may drop out of the race the week of May 11-May 18 after West Virginia

[Tropics_Dude83]

West Virginia votes on Tuesday, May 14th. This is Hillary territory to say the least. She`ll probably win 70-30 here. After Obama`s convincing defeat in Indiana the week prior (not prepared to project a HRC margin there yet-around 10 points) and a narrow HRC loss in NC, SUSA has the race just 49-44 for Obama now, or perhaps even a win for Hillary there, Obama will be reeling. Obama will likely have shown critical weakness in key constituencies in the exit polls in IN, NC and WV. I think this will convince the superdelegates to endorse Hillary sooner rather than later so that we can focus on defeating Mccain. The superdelegate flood after WV for Hillary should be convincing indeed.

So I predict Senator Obama drops out of the race on Thursday, May 16th. The supers might allow him to stay in the race until the final primary in June but I wouldn`t be surprised if they start pushing for his exit 2 weeks from tonight.

The remainder of the primary calendar favors Hillary in many respects and won`t be favorable to Obama. That`s why I think he`ll exit in May. Then, we`ll have to focus on making sure we hold his senate seat in 2010

Why such strong feelings against Obama on my end: One word. Wright. I`ve never been so let down by a candidate ever. This spectacle is embarrasing and devastating

[FrenchieCat]

1. Your bad!

[Yael]

Thats a keeper!

[The Doctor.]

98. This OP is a keeper!

I can't wait to post it in full in June.

[ruby slippers]

191. what you talkin' 'bout tropics?

Can us "bitter" people really decide this thing?

[Swamp Rat]

18. LOLOLOL!!!!

[papau]

33. Should Obama withdraw since Clinton leads amoung Dems (Gallup), beats McCain by 9 vs Obama only by 2

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPb...


Clinton Leads McCain by 9 Points Nationwide, AP Poll Shows

By Julianna Goldman

April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Hillary Clinton does better than Democratic presidential rival Barack Obama when matched against Republican John McCain, according to the latest Associated Press- Ipsos poll.

Clinton leads McCain 50 percent to 41 percent while Obama is ahead 46 percent to 44 percent, within the margin of error, according to the poll taken after Clinton's Pennsylvania primary victory.




http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/04/19/92154...

From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Hillary Clinton has regained the national lead, 46%-45%, over Obama, according to the Gallup Tracking poll. Clinton had been down by 11 points less than a week ago. This is the first time Clinton has led in the poll since March 20.

The general-election match up has seen no change. Clinton leads McCain 46%-44%, and Obama leads McCain 45%-44%.

[tekisui]

46. Her entire argument is based on months out polls?

LOL! She's done.

[papau]

224. those are today's polls

[Forkboy]

53. Thanks for the SPAM. It's the closest you've come to intelligence yet.

[VolcanoJen]

80. Even Bush refused to govern based on polls.

Clearly a losing strategy, but still.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

186. do you like it that your candidate is willing to murder millions of innocents?

Papau, do you like neocons? Clinton is a pandering war mongering DLC neo con.

She will NEVER get elected in the GE. Thats why the republicans are working
so hard to help her.

Some asshole is doing robo calls to African Americans in my state, trying to
make them think they aren't registered to vote so don't go vote!

[papau]

226. She LEADS - she beats McCain by more - she is no neo-con

[VolcanoJen]

78. LMFAO

[GoldieAZ49]

194. au contraire!

Obama spends 20 years in a close relationship with this man, either he is lying that he didn't know what a whack job Wright is or is as naive as a 10 year old.

Either way, he is not presidential material.

[Tesha]

207. I predict this poster gets the big granite cookie after Clinton is defeated. (NT)

[David Dunham]

2. Prediction: Hillary drops out June 6

[The Doctor.]

101. Happy birthday.

[sybylla]

217. That isn't nearly long enough for her to wreck her career

I expect this boneheaded self-destructive mood she's in will last all the way to convention. Every once in a while you come across people who never get past being their own handicap.

[scheming daemons]

LOL..... after May 6th and his two wins, the SDs will have already moved to him.....

...you are politically tone-deaf.

[Hawkeye-X]

3. Lay down that crackpipe.

I'm serious.

[slick8790]

61. That is insulting to crackheads. Not even THEY should be compared to this dude. n/t

[sorrybushisfromtexas]

4. I will be more than suprised if you are right.

He could lose them all and still be ahead in pledged delegates.

[thunder rising]

5. 70% in WV would be great for Hillary, what about the ALL rest she needs at 65%?

[cascadiance]

187. It's worse than that... With the results he's quoting do the math...

Currently Obama has a 162 pledged delegate lead now.

The following are the only primaries before the date she says Obama will pull out...

o Assuming 100% of the delegates in Guam go to Hillary (best case scenario) = +4 delegates
o Hillary wins by about 10 points in Indiana according to his predictions = +8 delegates
o Hillary wins a close race in NC (51-49) = +3 delegates
o Hillary wins 70-30 percent win in W Virgina = +12 delegates

Hillary gains 27 total delegates. Obama then still leads by 135 pledge delegates. And you think he will LEAVE being this far ahead at this point? You ARE on drugs! You do understand that she would have to win over 85% of the delegates in each of these states for her to be ahead of him at that point at all?

Go to the slate delegate calculator and see for yourself.

http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/

[SemiCharmedQuark]

6. You think he's going to drop out while he still has the majority pledged delegates?

Really?

[2rth2pwr]

74. For the good of the party.

[crimsonblue]

130. So does Hillary not have to care about the good of the party?

Man all these one way streets are killing me.

[2rth2pwr]

163. She has stayed in for the good of the party, we have been trying to tell

his supporters for months that it was all a mirage. Hillary took the heat because it was the right thing todo.

[cascadiance]

188. Explain.... How is she good for the party?

Put forth a stupid answer, it deserves a stupid question!

[Armstead]

195. Comic relief

[2rth2pwr]

197. She will lead the party to victory this fall.

Look how much of a drag Obama already is down ticket. Dems running for office are running away from Barack.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vE1oN4bYjyg&eurl

[cascadiance]

209. That's not logic, that's a baseless theory...

There are just as many Dems running TOO Barack and more. Why is her superdelegate lead decreasing if your THEORY is true? I think the other answer that this is comic relief is more accurate. That's the only way some of you here are sane.

[dionysus]

214. come on. you can't possibly be that stupid... can you?

[Yael]

7. I am glad you finally settled on a candidate

Your bipolar posting has been making me dizzy.

[scheming daemons]

13. Just wait.... next week he and NJSecularist will switch again....

...they switch with the weather.

[Yael]

28. So I am not the only one to have noticed?

I was starting to wonder if *I* needed to get the prescription for lithium

[Frank Booth]

68. Do we have any confirmation yet on whether Tropics_Dude and AGirl are the same person?

[Yael]

114. Interesting.

[DangerousRhythm]

8. ROFFLES!

This won't happen, sorry.

[virtualobserver]

9. next time.....no hallucinogens before posting

[rurallib]

10. ./;

Fuuuuuny!

[leftofcool]

11. I think you are right and I have a feeling she will take NC

[Alcibiades]

148. What's that feeling based on?

Obama is very popular in North Carolina, particularly here in Durham, which is part of the NC 4th congressional district, which will send more delegates to the Democratic national Convention (9) than any other in the state (the next runner up has 7). We get dozens and dozens of people out to canvass for the primary. A primary, and we are getting more volunteers for Obama than we had in the GE for Kerry last time.

Meanwhile, the rumor among active Democrats here is that Senator Clinton cannot find enough volunteers and is actually bringing paid canvassers in from places such as New York.

The polls have Obama ahead by big margins here, and, from what I have seen, they are not wrong. That's just based on my personal observations as an active Democrat out there knocking on doors in the most Democratic large town in NC. If you have seen something different, I'd be intrigued to hear it.

[iwearshoesinky]

12. Beautiful dreamer, wake unto me

Starlight and dewdrops are waiting for thee

[woolldog]

14. stop making a fool of yourself. nt

[Tribetime]

15. What is there 28 delgates up for grabs so she will net 11 at 70%

[BlueIdaho]

16. Dude

You need new crystal balls. Your predictions are way off base.

[hisownpetard]

17. OMG, I never realized you had such a great sense of humor!

[book_worm]

19. Impossible, by West Virginia Obama will have the pledged delegate race almost won

it will be won a week later with KY and Oregon. Yeah, KY and WVA are Hill's last big states, but Obama will take Oregon and he will win NC by double digits regardless of what SUSA says. Nope he will clinch the pledged race by May 20th and the super delegates will not overrule the will of the people.

BTW, Wright is a done issue. Obama brilliantly handled it. He is not responsible for what his former pastor may do or say and the media even agrees it's done. The People will accept this.

Sorry, Hillary tried but despite being the front runner for four years she couldn't beat this first term Senator from Illinois.

[lligrd]

20. You Feel Let Down By Wright? But Obliterating Iran Is Fine?

Go figure!

[virtualobserver]

27. let down by Wright in the sense that Obama wasn't destroyed

[Yael]

42. Obama distanced himself from a firey pastor. All Hillary wants to do is nuke 70 million people

Don't you see?

[lligrd]

51. Oh, Of Course I Get It Now: 1 Fiery Pastor vs 70 Million People

So simple. Surprised I didn't get it sooner.

[Yael]

117. See! Its just like HillMath

You have to tweak reality a bit, but then it all comes into focus!

[aquart]

204. Do you get the severe lack of reality in that remark?

I beg you, take a course in international relations before you display your utter ignorance again.

[Johnny__Motown]

21. I think you are insane... he will have the most pledged delegates, the SD won't over turn them

Hillary is toast


She is just to stubborn to admit it




I am sorry your candidate lost, better luck next time

[supernova]

22. Why would Obama drop out?

He's got the most delegates.

[thevoiceofreason]

23. Tell me where you're buying whatever it is you're smoking!

I hope you are compos mentis enough to vote in November. For Obama.

[EFerrari]

24. Most sane people who support Obama understand that

Wright has a place in the history of social justice in this country.

And, that he is a liberal.

If you can be disappointed with OBAMA because of WRIGHT, then you need to rethink how you're being played by the media.

[goclark]

55. Amen

[panader0]

25. Remember this post in a month or so. You lose. 70-30???

[Mooney]

26. Never going to happen.

I love the effort to portray Obama's campaign as somehow "over." It's only "over" in the respect that he shut down Hillary in February. Everything since then has been wishful thinking on Hillary's part.

I must have typed that five times today, and it never gets old.

[newmajority]

29. Damn, the Hillabong is loaded with some good shit today

Obama's not dropping out. He won. And by May 16th, the superdelegates will have long settled this thing.

[Yael]

37. Man -- no kidding!

I keep checking profiles to see if any of them live near me.

[terrell9584]

30. I agree with your percentages

But he'd be a fool to drop, unless someone has something on him that we know nothing about that they threaten to put on him. For example, if there is evidence of him having an affair, that would be a death knell, because his campaign was based on character.

Clinton '92 never claimed to be the candidate of character, if anything, Southerners recognized him as a regular old Southern pol, and we supported him. If you went back to 1992, and took out all of the votes of whites living in the South who were not native to the region, Clinton wins every state. Just look at the county maps, he held the rural areas, were population was more static, lost urban areas where midwesterners lived. Also note that most of the major founders of Republicanism in the South were Northerners like Gingrich, because native Southerners wanted nothing to do with such foolishness, because they were taught that the GOP overall was bad because it was Lincoln's party. (I got Mississippi history two decades ago and we were still taught that). It's why the Republicans couldn't win till they got ex-Democrats to run as Republicans

But, Obama has no reason to drop out until his popular vote is eclipsed by hers, even then, the delegate count gives him a reason to stay in.

[dchill]

31. Interesting... How, exactly, did he "let you down...?"

I don't feel that way at all - especially today.

[Tropics_Dude83]

32. Have you watched the media coverage of Obama lately

I`m not the one delusional. He`s pilloried day after day, week after week.

Indiana is a LOST cause for Obama looking at the polls. SUSA is the `gold standard`and has Obama leading NC by just 5. A strong closing push could win HRC NC.

And, again, when the supers look at the NC, IN and WV exit polls of key constituencies that we need to win in November, they`ll be freaked. It`s a fact that the exit polls of key constituencies in all 3 states will be devastating to Obama, even if he wins NC by 3 or 4.

Pledged delegates won in February don`t matter to the superdelegates. Electability is what counts. Hoyer and Dean have said so.

Go ahead. Flame away,

[Tropics_Dude83]

35. Not to mention Hillary will have a strong popular vote lead by the end of the season n-t

[wileedog]

43. And yet Supers keep declaring for him

Must gall you to no end that they don't see the same thing you do.

There was no rush to Hillary when she was "inevitable" at the beginning. There was no rush to Obama when he mathematically sealed up the nomination not long ago. There will be no rush to Hillary because of Wright and some exit polls. You are dreaming.

In June the votes will be over, Obama will have the most PDs, and most of the Supers at that point will make a decision with strong urging from the party leadership to go Obama because of it. Certainly at minimum the 40% he needs to win will oblige.

Game over.

[Danger Mouse]

34. Wish and hope all you like, and maybe your fairy godmother will grant your wish.

[totodeinhere]

36. Bullshit.

[rocktivity]

38. Hillary's "comeback" with "blowout wins" in KY and WV won't be enough

Especially if Obama wins NC and gets at least 40% of the vote everywhere else.


rocknation

[Doityourself]

39. I bookmarked this thread and my computer broke out in laughter...lmao

[NJSecularist]

40. Give credit to Obama. He ran a good campaign. But there comes a time when you just need to quit.

After West Virginia, it will be clear that Obama is unelectable. He should drop out soon thereafter.

[Yael]

44. Can I pop over tomorrow and pick up a dime bag?

[book_worm]

49. Hmm, wasn't it clear that Hill was unelectable when she lost 11 in a row?

Obama will win at least NC, OR, SD, MT and possibly Guam and may win Indiana, if not will only narrowly lose it. Sorry but WVA and KY are not going to swing the nomination to Hillary. If anything of the last 9 states they may very well split them. I'm glad I'm not a fair weather Obama supporter and don't get caught up with all the silly propaganda that Hillary supporters put out.

[scheming daemons]

56. LOL.... WV? WV is relevant now? the most racist state in the nation? (Believe me, I know...)

I live 15 miles from the PA/WV border.

This is not a state with a greater white supremacist ratio per capita than WV.



You actually think WV will matter? Let me lay it out for you skippy:


Obama will win NC by about 10-12 percent.

Indiana will be within 3 percent either way.... a delegate "tie", in effect.


Within a few days after that, a boatload of Supers will move to Obama.



This thing will be over before WV even gets to vote.



....and the candidate for the Democratic party will be Barack Obama.


...and you... being the spineless "go whichever way the wind blows" person you are... will be back on the team, saying you "knew it all along".

[NJSecularist]

58. I went to college in West Virginia.

It is not the most racist state in the union. It is also a Democratic state that Hillary gives us a chance to win in the general while Obama doesn't.

If he gets blown out in West Virginia, it will tell us alot about his electability. He is the frontrunner yet he might get blown out by 30+ points. Not a good sign of your electability among working class whites.

[book_worm]

75. What about Colorado (Obama up by 3, HIllary behind by 12), Iowa

Obama up by 12 and Hillary down by double digits, Washington, Oregon, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin! a new poll has Obama up by 6 and Hill down by 8. Yeah she may do better in West Virginia.

[Yael]

129. It is the home to William Pierce's NatAll movement/compound

You know, The Turner Diaries guy?

Nah -- no racism to be found there.

Stormfront thinks it is the main haven -- outside of idyllic Idaho and the Separation South Carolina project.

Why on earth would anyone think it is a racist state?



On edit -- noting that Idaho was Barack's largest margin of victory. Racists typically vote against their own economic interest for the (R)...

[thevoiceofreason]

83. Hey, the two Obama defectors have each others' backs. How cute.

Be careful.

[thevoiceofreason]

85. Self-delete

[VolcanoJen]

88. I thought red states that could never go blue didn't count

Sudden change in strategy?

[Tropics_Dude83]

93. WV has gone blue in every election until 2000 and 2004 n-t

[VolcanoJen]

96. What did the Clintons do to help WV remain blue in 2000, then?

What happened that made WV go red in those two cycles?

[NJSecularist]

104. Kerry and Gore weren't a good fit in West Virginia

And Bush was a terrific fit for West Virginia.

The Clintons are candidates that are capable of carrying West Virginia. McLame isn't a very good candidate for West Virginia either.

[VolcanoJen]

110. So the vaunted Clinton Machine failed Gore in 2000 in WV.

Why is that?

Until my dying day, I'll insist 2000 was the most important election of our lifetimes, and even the Clintons failed that test.

[NJSecularist]

112. The Clinton machine wasn't even involved in 2000.

Gore thought that he would do much better if he distanced himself from Bill Clinton. It was a terrible gamble and he paid for it by losing the election.

Bill wanted to campaign for Gore in 2000. He made numerous calls to Gore's campaign during their run for the presidency in 2000 to give them advice. They listened to none of it.

[VolcanoJen]

115. That's the whole problem, isn't it?

I don't buy your version of events, by the way. Sure, Gore distanced himself from Clinton in 2000. But Clinton's machine, not so much. Where were they? Probably concentrating on that Senate race...

As any Democrat knows by now, don't expect any help from the Clintons if their name isn't at the top of the ticket.

[NJSecularist]

120. I'll take Bob Shrum's word over yours. No offense.

Gore distanced himself from Clinton due to the Monica Lewinsky scandal. He chose Lieberman expressly for that reason, because Lieberman was one of the most highly critical Democratic senators about Bill's conduct. He wanted to distance himself from Bill at all costs. He thought it would help him. It didn't. He took a gamble and it was a terrible decision.

Bill offered help many times. The Gore campaign didn't want any of it. They didn't want him part of the campaign at all. Those are the facts.

[VolcanoJen]

128. "I'll take Bob Shrum's word over yours."

There really are no words.

[NJSecularist]

You want to blame Bill at every opportunity. However, your account is not consistent with the facts.

Shrum was Gore's chief strategist. He knows what the facts are. You are trying to present your own wishful thinking as fact.

[Yael]

133. You have the patience of a saint

Hi Jen

[VolcanoJen]

135. Thanks, babe

Who knew if you loved a Clinton once, it meant you had to love all Clintons forever?

JUDAS!!!

[Yael]

138. Can't help you there

I was a Republican in the 90s. I claim ClintonFatigue going back to about 1994.

[Starbucks Anarchist]

219. The same Bob Shrum who's 0-8?

[Alcibiades]

159. Then you don't need to do anything

Stay home, don't make phone calls, don't give money.

If he's so unelectable, why's he ahead in the delegate count?

Here's the deal. If Clinton nets more delegates out of WV than Obama does out of my own state of NC, I will eat a big pile of dog poo and post a video of it here. The poo will be fresh. Will you make the same bet?

[atjrpsych]

41. keep dreaming!

[KansasVoter]

45. Want to bet $500?

[Tropics_Dude83]

47. I watched NBC, ABC and CBS evening news tonight

and shook my head. The coverage was critical and disbelieving of Obama. Tim Russert said he had never seen a modern presidential campaign deal with anything like this. EVER.

[tekisui]

50. And he went right through.

The M$M doesn't know what the hell to do. Neither do the Clintons. And neither will McDubya.

[book_worm]

52. Wow! I guess your perceptions of what they said are different than mine.

[rodeodance]

its hard to get the real perception when you live in a bubble.

[NJSecularist]

63. And when you are part of a cult.

The Obamites netroots cult wouldn't know about the facts if it smacked them right in the face..

[book_worm]

69. Your so cute when you try and sound tough.

[book_worm]

65. I wonder who is the one looking at this race with rose colored glasses?

[aquart]

202. No. Do not take Russert's word for anything. Really.

[Endangered Specie]

48. Whatever drugs you are on...

you either are taking too much, or not enough.

[Pisces]

54. You are the only spectacle that is embarassing. In May the book about The Fellowship comes out

We will see who the embarrassment is then. Hillary is a right wing pig in sheeps clothing.

[anamandujano]

57. Repukes are going after down ticket Dems with the Wright fiasco to the

tune of $500K. After all the threats to supers, with the help of the thug Bill Bradley, Karma is rearing its ugly head.

Let's hope the supers come to their senses before the whole party disintegrates to nothing. We're halfway there now thanks to the Dean and Brazile bias and incompetence.

[Tropics_Dude83]

59. It`s not about WV-It`s abou Bitter, Wright, PA, etc

It`s about his bitter remarks, Wright`s spectacle, PA, what the exit polls will show about the NC, IN and WV breakdowns that I predict will create the superdelegate flood for Hillary.

When Obama is shown to have gotten 30% of the white vote, jewish vote and catholic vote in WV, IN and NC, the supers are not going to be pleased.

[Tribetime]

67. Tropics your at 999, make the next great

[StClone]

60. Rush Limbaugh never a let down

He can call preteen girls "Dogs" and Obama "Halfrica." He can lose his hearing to an Oxycotin addiction and fly into the U.S. after a trip to a third world sex hot spot with misappropriated prescriptions on Viagra. He can make the wildest of statements and never lose his job directing the Conservative movement. He is a darling, a humorous genius, a modern day Will Rogers!

Yet Obama has a pretty pure life and a wonderful achievements and be dragged down and character assassination by a overblown association with a religious ne're-do-well. Am I imagining things or is the Right not only hypocritical they are super-hypocritical and they love being so!

[bowens43]

62. You're completely fucking delusional.

[RBInMaine]

64. And you are on drugs.

[Hoof Hearted]

166. Berating people is such an effective strategy, you guys should do it more.

No, really.

[natrat]

66. dont these morons know by now to ignore msm and corporate scumbags

[Tropics_Dude83]

70. I KNOW to ignore MSM but Joe Q. Public doesn`t-that is the problem with Obama n-t

[Tribetime]

91. self del

[Lucky 13]

71. Even Hillary ain't buying it.

[abbyg8r]

72. I was having a bad day - thanks for the belly laugh!

[Raine]

73. You're having delusions

either wake up or put down the crack pipe!

[VolcanoJen]

76. I just stepped into Bizarro Land

Provocative, but pretty silly.

[Tropics_Dude83]

77. My post

If one were to look at the underlying assertions beneath my post, they are indeed credible.

[kwassa]

81. Credible to who?

You have nothing but the personal projection of your feelings on to those that neither know nor care.

[davhill]

79. Did you previously support Obama

And switched to Clinton because of Wright?

[Tropics_Dude83]

90. Yes yes yes!

OMG, I loved Obama so much before Wright. Especially that night that he gave the Wisconsin victory speech and the week where he said that he had news for John Mccain about how the terrorists weren`t in Iraq before the invasion. I watched him and Hillary deliver speeches at the anniversary of the Selma march in 2007 and thought `how could this man not be our nominee.` Then, I find out that he`s been going to a church where the pastor says God Damn America and is a certified whacko for 20 years. He said on Meet the Press in December when Tim said `do you have any skeletons in your closet` ``no no Tim not at all.` Well, he did. He should have left Trinity in October-November of 2006. He should have realized the radioactivity of Wright. By not doing so, he let all of us down. I feel like he personally threw me and all of his supporters under the bus by his association with Wright.

It`s not even so much that I find Wright offensive. I don`t really. It`s just that you don`t run for president of the United States and expect to win with a guy like this lurking in the shadows. He failed to realize the danger of this association and nearly took us over the cliff. I still stuck with him until Bitter but that combined with Wright was the final straw. I just wonder if he is ready for primetime.

[Maddy McCall]

102. Excellent post.

[Condem]

107. So you let a man of the cloth dictate how you think?

Does seperation of church and state mean anything to you? You're a fraud.

[Tropics_Dude83]

116. It`s about electability and Obama is a GE disaster because of Wright

Right or wrong, that`s how I view it.

[Condem]

118. And when Obama wins the nomination?

[NJSecularist]

125. I feel the same way, Tropics.

For many of the same reasons as you. In addition, I don't think that Obama plays very well in the states that we need to win, such as Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. He is not electable. Hillary is.

[Tropics_Dude83]

131. Very true NJ-I forgot about Hillary`s strength in Ohio, PA and FL n-t

[Condem]

132. The two prodigal sons......

Living there fifteen minutes of fame on DU. You'll be of no service to us in the GE. Remember that.

[Yael]

137. Color me shocked. SHOCKED!!

[eridani]

176. And Clinton can beat a POW by lying about sniper fire? n/t

[Yael]

182. Shhhhh

We're not supposed to talk about that one.

[RiverStone]

183. So you are letting the media whores and a wacko preacher...

Define the man.

Your support for Obama must have been pretty damn soft if that's all it took to switch to Hillary. And now you post predictions of his demise?

Sorry, his honest and open reaction to Wright's bullshit today reminded many that he is a person who has enough character to own his feelings and speak the truth. That's my focus today and my compliment to Obama.

Sure as hell beats tossing out an end date when Hillary's already lost (beyond hope of catching up) the pledged delegate lead.

[cascadiance]

189. Wright's bad, but the likes of Santorum is OK... OK, I got it!

[aquart]

205. Rezko didn't convince you but Wright did?

Oh, well.

[Yael]

136. This one's opening thread after joining

back in January was all about polling results - only including Hillary and Obama. When called on the other candidates running (and their standings), its response was "huh? You all here care about more than Hillary and Obama?".

Draw your own conclusions as the rest of us did who pounced on it.

I may not remember what I had for breakfast, but some things stick in my craw. That stuck.

[Condem]

139. Thank you , Yael.

[Tropics_Dude83]

140. ROFL-Hillary and Barack are the only ones left standing of the 9

I was right to ignore the second-tier candidates.

[Condem]

142. Tropics Dude83

A man of COMMITTMENT. Some advice, my friend. Don't get married.

[Yael]

144. Let me fill ya in on a little secret

Back in January, those people not identifying as Republicans recognized that we had other candidates running -- each with strong points in their policy positions.

Oh, and it was 8, not 9 -- you still have time to edit.

For the record, in no particular order (and you may not have heard of most of these folks, so I will include their home states):

Mike Gravel -- Alaska
Bill Richardson -- New Mexico
Chris Dodd -- Conneticut
Joe Biden -- Delaware
Barack Obama -- Illinois
Dennis Kucinich -- Ohio
John Edwards -- North Carolina
Hillary Clinton -- New York, Illinois, Arkansas, Pannsylvania, and soon to be Indiana and West Virginia.

[Condem]

147. Yael

My only dilemma is why are we fucking with these two? We should move on.

[Yael]

151. Entertainment

For you, my friend:

[Tropics_Dude83]

150. ROFL-I`ve heard of all of them-the thing is

I understood, unlike many here, that the nomination would come down to Hillary V. Barack right from the beginning.

I commend Edwards, Kucinich, Dodd, Gravel, Richardson and Biden for their service and good work.

[Yael]

152. "I've heard of all of them"

'Nuff said!

[Tropics_Dude83]

154. Yael, a serious question for you

If I had told you in April 2007 that Obama would win Iowa and it would come down to a fierce struggle between Obama and Clinton for the nomination with Edwards et al dropping out before Super Tuesday, would you have believed me

[Yael]

157. You want me to believe you?

Tell me the high points of the 9 8 candidates we took to the slate.

[Tropics_Dude83]

165. High points

Biden-extensive foreign policy experience and 2nd time he ran for the presidency so he had experience
Kucinich-Opposed Iraq war from the beginning, voted to impeach Cheney!
Edwards-OMG the list is long. Let's begin with his strong stance against free trade and his work for the poor in New Orleans
Richardson-Extensive foreign policy work especially with North korea and was a great UN ambassador
Dodd-Easy. Opposition to the FISA bill and a strong fillibuster of it!
Gravel-the guy has quit the democratic party so there's nothing good to say about him but he was a senator from Alaska. Not amny democrats come from Alaska so that's an achievement I guess.

We all know Obama and Clinton but Clinton's biggest accomplishment is her tireless work on the healthcare front and Obama's is bringing a message of nonpartisanship and unity, which America so badly needs.

HA! You met your match Yael. I know my politics! I'm sure you'll find something to pick apart with this post though.

Now, answer my question about candidates dropping out before S.T.

[Yael]

169. Sorry -- took you 20 minutes. I call "Googled it"

And you missed some really key things there, IMO.

In admission -- I am one of those pesky people that doesn't like indecision. Made up my mind for JRE and took 2 weeks after he dropped to go with Obama. When I interface with people, I tend to make up my mind pretty quickly and stick to it. That is a good thing as I will defend the indefensible. It is also a bad thing that if you leave me with a bad taste in my mouth, it is pretty much set.

I know flip floppers like yourself don't relate to that, so I will save you the trouble.

No, I don't believe you and I really have no use for you.

Please, feel free: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

[Tropics_Dude83]

173. That's fine

You don't know who I am and you can't know since this is an internet message board. You're free to make snap judgments about me. And, no I have no intention to place you on ignore. I don't operate that way. You can ignore me though.

BTW, I didn't google it. I went and e-mailed a friend and then returned to the forum to reply to you. I'm not sitting here constantly refreshing DU every minute.

[Yael]

178. I have no intention of putting you on ignore

I reserve ignore for the *brave* keyboard warriors who attack for the sake of attacking. Right now, the count is 4 and I have no clue as to who 2 of them are even supporting.

I may not agree with you or even believe you, but I posted what I did because I do recognize that different temperaments clash. That does not mean that I don't wish to read your opinions -- and will continue to do so, agree or not.

[Condem]

153. So now, oh seer of seers, how's this one end?

[Tropics_Dude83]

156. Hillary nomination n-t

[Condem]

Wagers, Tropics?

[Tropics_Dude83]

167. Sure $75

[Yael]

171. I would be happy to hold this in Paypal and pay the winner.

Seriously. PM me.

Will make myself accountable to whomever you choose.

[Condem]

174. No, tropics

better yet. Banishment from the GE board.

[Condem]

175. By the way, where did silent bob go?

[stop the bleeding]

82. Don't Do Drugs

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[Generic Brad]

84. Thanks for your analysis

You appear to know what you are talking about.

[VolcanoJen]

86. Unless you live in WV or have a clear insight into their thinking...

... that's incredibly insulting to imagine that Hillary's going to better her Arkansas result in WV.

Unless she starts to claim she's from Charleston, and she used to party in Wellington right after they blew the whistle on her pipefitting shift.

Not that I put it past her, mind you.

[TheDoorbellRang]

87. What color is the sky in your world?

[Muttocracy]

89. Sorry, SurveyUSA has him gaining on her

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/...

[gauguin57]

92. Popcorn, anyone?

[cascadiance]

111. Thanks for reminding me, I have a bag to pop in my drawer here...

[0007]

94. I think your over acting. Of course many twits do.

[mirrera]

95. Ah Ha Ha ha ha ha... cough cough ha ha....

[Jersey Devil]

97. *plonk*

[Upton]

99. Why should the pledged delegate leader drop out?

Doesn't make much sense to me.

[Tropics_Dude83]

122. Pledged delegates run caucuses and primaries in February before much was known about Obama n-t

[wileedog]

168. So they don't count in your world?

[Colobo]

100. Pathetic.

[JackORoses]

103. Prediction: I think that you will drop out of Democratic Underground on or before the week of June 3

[Tropics_Dude83]

119. I`m here forever-sorry

And I`m a true and true democrat who will support the nominee no matter what, so you will have to put up with me and I`ll have to put up with you when HRC is the president

[Colobo]

124. You know Obama will win the nomination and the presidency.

You know it.

[Tropics_Dude83]

134. If he were to win the presidency, I`d be overjoyed-just don`t think it`s possible now n-t

[JeanGrey]

105. ROTFOLMAO! Thanks, I needed a laugh!

[The Backlash Cometh]

106. Well, the Clintons have the Scooter Libby problem, don't they?

[cascadiance]

108. Hillary still needs a little help... Is she taking a trip soon?...

Still not clear whether the Doctor has a permanent partner yet to occupy his time this season, so he might have room for her on his schedule!

[IDemo]

109. I predict a meteorite will hit you on the head and strike some sense into you

I know, the odds of that actually happening are astronomical. The part about you gaining some sense, that is.

[cascadiance]

113. Isn't there a Craigs List or Ebay page with a bridge someplace that's for sale?

I think the OP might like to get a link to that!

[IDemo]

121. I have a great deal of money here in Nigeria that I would like to contribute to Hillary

Perhaps the OP would be so kind to give me his bank account info so we may effect the fund transfer.

[Yael]

155. LOL!!

Nice one.

[crimsonblue]

123. I think me shit will turn purple and I will fart out butterflies...

I have a better chance of mine happening...

[Yael]

160. Hey -- do me a favor. Toss that up on YouTube, k?

[crimsonblue]

227. I'm not sure I follow.....

[SaveAmerica]

126. Hey there, could you donate some money to Hillary's campaign please? Here's a link, it'll help her

so much! Thanks!!!!

https://donate.barackobama.com/page/contribute/standard...

[nichomachus]

127. Good for you -- wishing *can* make it so

Keep your eye on that meteor.

[PseudoIntellect]

141. Haha, and Obama is ahead by 2 in IN. See, I can cherry-pick a poll, too ^__^.

Put these numbers on the board:

Guam: 50/50
IN 56/44 Clinton
NC 52/48 Obama
WV 70/30 Clinton
KY 62/38 Clinton
OR 56/44 Clinton
MT 56/44 Clinton
SD 56/43 Clinton
PR 60/40 Clinton

result?

Clinton down by 88 delegates still...

Red states never counted for a good argument when Obama was winning them; Hillary shoots them down. Maybe somehow they'll become the main argument for her when she's still down almost 100 delegates?

[Tropics_Dude83]

145. Anything under 100 delegates and a Hillary PV win=Hillary nomination IMO

I think 100 delegates is the minimum lead Obama needs to have to win the nomination.

[cascadiance]

180. WHY? Do you not believe in democracy?

If you don't, you're in the wrong place. And if you do, you need to explain yourself!

[tblue37]

143. Then don't friggin' vote for Wright! n/t

[SoxFan]

146. Iggy is your friend

[ORDem]

149. Wright is not a candidate for anything as far as I know.

So, STFU.

[rodeodance]

158. ha ha. you can not deny Wright has affected the primary. --for not running.

[wileedog]

170. Oh he has been a fantastic talking point for an otherwise empty campaign

Clinton lost this badly on her own merits.

And now you are clinging to the one hope that SDs will be scared of a nutty pastor.

You should feel real proud of your candidate.

[jackson_dem]

161. Welcome. An increasing number of people are realizing Clinton is our only shot at beating McSame

Supposedly even Sean Hannity is considering endorsing Obama because he is terrified of Clinton's electability.

[eridani]

179. Lying about sniper fire and campaigning against a former POW?

If racism makes Obama unelectable, then sexism makes Clinton unelectable.

[jackson_dem]

199. Racism isn't why Obama is unelectable

Obama circa February was a strong candidate. Obama supporters act as if people didn't know he is black until March. His decline is not due to race. If race was a big problem for him why did he perform solidly for 30+ states? He was even building a winning coalition, cutting into Clinton's groups after Super Tuesday. Then the vetting process began and Obama began taking some hits from the MSM and Clinton took her gloves off. His glass jaw was exposed and he has been declining ever since...

Gender is actually helping Clinton. Look at the exit polls. She does better among voters who use gender as a factor than those who don't. Remember, women are the majority of voters.

[eridani]

210. You haven't said how she overcomes Tuzla lies against an ex-POW n/t

[Tropics_Dude83]

223. Obama dropping like a rock in IN/NC and Rasmussen/Gallup Daily tracking polls

Down to a 5 point SUSA lead in NC and trailing by 9 in IN. Rasmussen reveals him plunging:

Obama is now viewed favorably by 49%, down three points from yesterday’s total. His unfavorable ratings are up three points to 48%. For Clinton, the reviews are 44% favorable, 54% unfavorable. Those figures include 33% with a Very Unfavorable opinion of Obama and 32% with a Very Unfavorable opinion of Clinton. Opinions about McCain are less firmly held.

McCain’s ratings have slipped among Republicans over the past week, but he is still viewed favorably by 55% of unaffiliated voters. Obama is viewed favorably by 50% of unaffiliated voters, Clinton by 41%.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s Obama 47%, Clinton 43% (see recent Democratic Nomination results). Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. Today’s update shows the race as close as it has been since the Pennsylvania Primary. Results from the past two nights of tracking are even closer. If this tightening continues, it would suggest that the issues surrounding Reverend Jeremiah Wright are having a significant impact on support for Barack Obama. A separate survey found that 36% say a candidate’s character is more important than his specific policy positions. Most, however, are more interested in the policies.

Mika on MSNBC says this is the worst crisis of his political career.

Also ABC News's George Stephanopolous has reported according to the page that:
Also says the Clinton team feels renewed confidence about the nomination, though they mostly believe the CW that they must win Indiana and come close in North Carolina.

And per CBS:
CBS’s “Early Show”: Opened with: “Too Little, Too Late?”

Sorry guys, your candidate is sinking. Of course, you refuse to accept that.

Also, you're not a true democrat if you support Hillary Clinton? Huh?

[madrchsod]

162. sounds reasonable

barack really should drop out because there`s not enough white people who will vote now. he`s destroying the democratic party before our eyes....

i sure am glad i voted for dennis when i voted...so hey do`t blame me !


:

[Subdi-Visions]

164. Hillary is not electable

I don't understand how people can support Hillary. It seems that these people would get a clue when Rush Limbaugh and other republican idiots support her. Don't these Hillary supporters understand that the Republicans want to run against her for a reason and the reason isn't because they really, really like her.
I thought there was no way Bush was going to win in 2000. And I was firmly convinced that enough of the American people would be wise enough to boot that idiot from the White House in 2004. At this point I have no faith that logic and common sense will carry the day in November. The Republicans have no shame when it comes to ensuring their "side" wins. The best chance they have of winning in November is if they are running against Hillary. Many, many people absolutely HATE Hillary. It may very well be non-rational but it will still give the Republicans their best chance of continuing to screw America and the world.
If you support Hillary, please reconsider why and whether you're supporting her will make you feel better when Mccain wins in November...

R/

[eridani]

172. How's the weather in your alternative universe?

And do the unicorns bite?

[Rosa Luxemburg]

177. Nonsense!

[Khaotic]

181. You are really smokin' crack!

Contests so far ... 45

Obama has won 30

Hillary ......... only 15

Obama has 1,737 pledged delegates, only 233 more needed

Hillary has 1,597 pledged delegates, with ............ 428 more needed

Hillary is ONLY ahead in the SD count by 20 now. Even after the SINGLE digit win Hillary had in PA, Obama is STILL narrowing the SD lead Hillary has.

FACE FACTS ... without Wright or some other drummed up bullshit, Bosnia Hillary is dooooooomed!!!!

She'll be the one who is lucky to hold on to her Senate seat.

Under Obama there is no doubt that New York will be dark blue. With Hillary the state is already showing that it could be grabbed by McSame. It's only April and Hillary is already showing signs that she could lose her own state to McSame in November. What the fuck?!

Her baggage is heavier than Empire State Building. Fuck her ... no way she wins, and the Democratic Party should thank is lucky stars that she'll be conceding shortly after Obama reaches 50%+1 with the conclusion of the May 20th primaries.

May 21st people ... that's when we'll get a concession speech, and it will be coming from Hillary!

[On the Road]

184. If Clinton Didn't Drop Out, Why Would Obama?

Anyone familiar with the numbers knows losing the remaining primaries is not going to cost him the nomination. It MIGHT result in a crippled nominee.

[graycem]

206. Durr...

She had to wait 'til they could find a poll that put her ahead, silly!

[Joe the Revelator]

185. Either you're a gimmick poster, or you're the dumbest person to ever talk politics

Seriously dude, you're embarrassing yourself here.

[Tropics_Dude83]

196. Obama will not and cannot be the nominee n/t

[Joe the Revelator]

208. Stunning commentary. MSNBC should give you your own show.

[musicblind]

190. I don't think he will be dropping out after WV

I don't think either will drop out before June.

[cascadiance]

192. I think this thread deserves this cartoon...

It seems to fit MOST appropriately!

[MadBadger]

193. You are an embarassment and a sham. Nobody here believes you ever supported Obama

[Tropics_Dude83]

198. Obama is done in national presidential politics

And his senate seat will be closely contested each time he runs for re-election IMO.

[casus belli]

200. "Let down" implies you were for him at some point

And you're not fooling anyone if you say you were. Also, your magic 8-ball may be in need of callibration. Maybe Miss Cleo could help with that.

[aquart]

201. Oh, piffle. What's one little scandal?

What? Is this your first election? Please. Even I think he's made of sterner stuff than that. The days when honor made one resign at the first hint of scandal are dead and gone.

[graycem]

203. Kentucky

will decide it all. If he can't pull in the "hill" vote by 82%, he's toast!

[Roxy66]

211. Get a grip!!!

[Bensthename]

212. LMFAO.. We need to post this HERE:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

[Dawgs]

213. "Wright. I`ve never been so let down by a candidate ever."

You realize that Wright is not a canidate, right?

[gal]

215. And he would drop out why?????

Is she going to win by enough points to gain 140 delegates?
Same ole BS huh?

[Dawgs]

216. Yeah, what Wright did to Obama is much worse than what Bill did to Hillary.

You're a pathetic liar that deserves nothing. And, you certainly are no Democrat.

[Stuckinthebush]

218. Why are you let down by Obama?

I'm confused about how Wright has made you disappointed in Obama

[SeaLyons]

220. Agreed...

K&R

[Leftist Agitator]

221. Well, first of all, we here in WV vote on May 13th, not 14th.

Second of all, I'm sure that Obama is going to quit when he is winning handily, and if you think that NC will be anything but a HUGE Obama blowout, well then you aren't too bright.

"I`ve never been so let down by a candidate ever. This spectacle is embarrasing and devastating"

AH, so THAT'S why you posted this idiotic drivel. You're feeling betrayed by your Queen, Hillary! It's OK, I understand, but don't worry, that self-centered lying fucktard will be forced out soon enough (but not soon enough for my tastes).

[Left coast liberal]

222. For someone who "feels so let down by a candidate" how

come you sound so gleeful?

We shall see about your prediction. And, if it comes to pass, I will congratulate your intuition.

If it doesn't, will you congratulate the Gobama crowd?

[Texas Hill Country]

225. k & r