Obama Heads for Superdelegate Edge

[powergirl]

At the end of the day, Obama gets the nomination. Everyone needs to chill out.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120942916625251325.html?mod=special_page_campaign2008_topbox

"Despite his loss in Pennsylvania and other campaign bumps, Barack Obama is heavily favored to win what will be the final and decisive contest for the Democratic presidential nomination -- the "invisible primary" for the convention votes of party leaders.

(cut)

"Sen. Obama has taken the lead among elected officials, and Monday got the endorsement of New Mexico Sen. Jeff Bingaman, though Sen. Hillary Clinton will counter Tuesday with a commitment from Gov. Mike Easley, whose North Carolina holds the next primary. Sen. Clinton still leads by double digits among nonelected national and state party officials, but her edge has been narrowing.

"The elected are the party's 28 governors, 234 House members, 49 senators and assorted big-city mayors and state officeholders. Democrats in both camps say that for many, these superdelegates' decisions to endorse someone -- or stay uncommitted -- reflect their answer to the question: What is best for my political future?

(cut)

"Among elected officials, Sen. Obama leads in endorsements from governors and senators. He is behind among House members by one, but both camps expect him to pull ahead unless he does badly in next Tuesday's Indiana and North Carolina primaries. If he doesn't stumble, enough elected Democrats are expected to back Sen. Obama after the last primaries June 3 to give him the delegate majority needed for nomination.

"Many of them see Sen. Obama as more electable than Sen. Clinton. But even those who don't have been impressed by his grass-roots organizing and fund raising and the legions of new voters he has attracted, particularly younger and African-American voters.

"The politicians -- especially Democrats with significant African-American populations or college campuses in their districts -- see benefit for themselves in these new voters. By contrast, many see Sen. Clinton's alienating some general-election voters.

"A Democratic strategist to congressional candidates cites Sen. Clinton's high negative ratings in opinion polls. Politicians "all think Obama will stimulate African-American turnout, and they all know there's no way she gets independents or Republicans," says the strategist, who is unaligned in the presidential race.

"The Obama camp late last week countered by emailing superdelegates a memo citing state polls to argue that either Democrat could beat Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican nominee, in the big states where Sen. Clinton beat Sen. Obama in the primaries, such as California and New York. But Sen. Obama, the memo contended, would "put new states in play."

"His campaign also just announced a 50-state voter mobilization. That reflects another pitch to nonelected party officials: That Sen. Obama would work to build the party even in Republican "red" states, and has the money to do it, while Sen. Clinton focuses only on Democratic "blue" states and battlegrounds such as Ohio.

"Interviews with party officials suggest this appeal has effectively exploited lingering resentments that the DNC, under President Clinton, abandoned the red states. "Obama has made it absolutely clear he's committed to the 50-state strategy, and the Clintons obviously aren't," says Nebraska party chairman Steve Achepohl, who endorsed Sen. Obama last week. "That's a major factor for all the party people in smaller states."






:grouphug:

[ej510]

1. He gives dems a chance to pick up more seats. Even if he loses there is a good chance that the house

would be able to override McCain.

[cali]

4. it's the 60 seats in the Senate we need

there's no filibustering in the House.

[powergirl]

17. That should send chills up the spines of the RNC

Now, we can take our country back. :bounce:

[dansolo]

18. 60 w/o Lieberman

They should kick him to the curb. He should be stripped of his chairmanship, and any other perks he get from caucusing with the Dems.

[NJmaverick]

2. It would seem in some ways, Hillary is becoming as toxic as Rev Wright

Interesting their statements of politicians not wanting to have her high negatives hurt them, if they were to endorse her.

[Doityourself]

3. I agree. He's gonna lock this up soon.

[livingmadness]

5. It's locked already. Believe it.

[Doityourself]

7. By lock up..I mean..she'll have no choice but to step down and go away

[livingmadness]

10. Yep. She does have to step down and go away.

She's just not doin' it yet. One more week.

[Cha]

6. Great analysis from the article, powergirl..

thanks for bringing some reality on board.

This is so important..

"Interviews with party officials suggest this appeal has effectively exploited lingering resentments that the DNC, under President Clinton, abandoned the red states. "Obama has made it absolutely clear he's committed to the 50-state strategy, and the Clintons obviously aren't," says Nebraska party chairman Steve Achepohl, who endorsed Sen. Obama last week. "That's a major factor for all the party people in smaller states."

Dean and Obama!

[powergirl]

8. That 50 state strategy is a very touch subject among us Red State residents

I live in Texas so I really understand this. Howard Dean and the Clintons are polar opposites about this. The Clintons wanted the DNC to abandon us and just hope that a small number of "larger blue states" will bring it home. I remember when the Dems took over Congress in 2006 and James Carville was grousing, on some talk show, about what a shit job Howard Dean did. The reporter, actually stammered and stated, "well didn't the Dems just win Congress. Didn't Dean do a good job?" Carville then gave some dumb ass response like "Well, there should have been more seats won."

We Democrats stuck here in these red states finally have so much hope and optimism to change our state. And all of our Democratic elected officials feel the sting of the Clinton DNC policy. This is a big, big, deal and you are spot on in your analysis. Well done Zidzi. :toast:

[Cha]

11. This is like a dream come true..

I wondered why there wasn't a 50 state strategy(to myself) before Dean said anything..and then to have him come out with it and work so hard with Obama continuing the "experiment" is more like a real Democracy.

Just look at all the Doors it's opened!

One thing, though, powergirl..the clintons are connected to the dlc.

:toast:

[powergirl]

13. Obama turned down an "invitation" to join the DLC

Those DLC folks don't like the 50 state strategy. I'm disappointed that Harold Ford is on it.

:hi:

[redqueen]

9. Yet here, we see topics asking whom Clinton should pick as her VP.

:crazy:

[HockeyMom]

12. I have yet to see a Hillary sticker

where I live in Florida. Plenty of Obama ones though. Today to my amazement I saw a Kerry 2004 sticker!!!

This is supposed to be a very red area also. I have yet to see any McCain stickers either.

[powergirl]

14. I see mostly Obama stickers

My county (population 800,000 or so) went for Obama about 55/45. After the county convention, the delegates went 80/20. There are very few Clinton stickers now. They seemed to have faded away. . . :hi:

[dailykoff]

15. Hillary has become the face of the RNC campaign

and she's loving every minute of her "job" as spoiler. Finally, the recognition she's always wanted, and thirty pieces of silver too.

:mad:

[powergirl]

16. I am so disappointed in her and President Clinton

They have ruined their own reputations and legacy by using all of the RNC tactics. :puke:

[seafan]

19. WSJ: Obama Heads for Superdelegate Edge

Eyes on the goal, people.


Obama Heads for Superdelegate Edge

By JACKIE CALMES
Wall Street Journal

April 29, 2008; Page A4

.....

Among elected officials, Sen. Obama leads in endorsements from governors and senators. He is behind among House members by one, but both camps expect him to pull ahead unless he does badly in next Tuesday's Indiana and North Carolina primaries. If he doesn't stumble, enough elected Democrats are expected to back Sen. Obama after the last primaries June 3 to give him the delegate majority needed for nomination.
Many of them see Sen. Obama as more electable than Sen. Clinton. But even those who don't have been impressed by his grass-roots organizing and fund raising and the legions of new voters he has attracted, particularly younger and African-American voters.

The politicians -- especially Democrats with significant African-American populations or college campuses in their districts -- see benefit for themselves in these new voters. By contrast, many see Sen. Clinton's alienating some general-election voters.
A Democratic strategist to congressional candidates cites Sen. Clinton's high negative ratings in opinion polls. Politicians "all think Obama will stimulate African-American turnout, and they all know there's no way she gets independents or Republicans," says the strategist, who is unaligned in the presidential race.
Sen. Clinton still leads in endorsements from nonelected officials. Many have known her and former President Clinton since the couple's White House years, or worked for them then.
The Clinton campaign is counting on this group to be fertile ground to sow doubts about Sen. Obama's electability, citing his weaker showings in big states and among working-class whites, seniors and Roman Catholics.

The Obama camp late last week countered by emailing superdelegates a memo citing state polls to argue that either Democrat could beat Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican nominee, in the big states where Sen. Clinton beat Sen. Obama in the primaries, such as California and New York. But Sen. Obama, the memo contended, would "put new states in play."
His campaign also just announced a 50-state voter mobilization. That reflects another pitch to nonelected party officials: That Sen. Obama would work to build the party even in Republican "red" states, and has the money to do it, while Sen. Clinton focuses only on Democratic "blue" states and battlegrounds such as Ohio.

Interviews with party officials suggest this appeal has effectively exploited lingering resentments that the DNC, under President Clinton, abandoned the red states. "Obama has made it absolutely clear he's committed to the 50-state strategy, and the Clintons obviously aren't," says Nebraska party chairman Steve Achepohl, who endorsed Sen. Obama last week. "That's a major factor for all the party people in smaller states."

.....

Many superdelegates increasingly seem to share the view that ultimately they should support the candidate with the most pledged delegates. Almost certainly that will be Sen. Obama. "They argue that if the party insiders took this away from the winner of the voters' process, that could be disastrous for the party. And I agree with that," says Mr. Achepohl, the Nebraska Democratic chairman.
Clinton supporters privately contend the argument that party leaders should rubber-stamp the pledged-delegate winner reflects racial pressures. They complain that Obama backers are fanning talk of mutiny among Democrats' most loyal constituency -- black voters -- if Sen. Obama loses his bid to be the first African-American nominee of a major party after he had won the most pledged delegates. That could imperil Democrats' majority in Congress.

That's a rather deceitful tactic by any standards, when looking at the high percentage of Clinton backers who say they will not vote for Obama if he is the nominee. And she's playing the despicable race baiting game yet again.