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What States are "in Play" after the Edwards choice?

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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-07-04 12:34 PM
Original message
What States are "in Play" after the Edwards choice?
Edited on Wed Jul-07-04 12:44 PM by papau
#1. *Ohio.
#2. Pennsylvania - leaned Bush in April
#3. Michigan
4. *Wisconsin
#5. *West Virginia
#6. *Missouri
#7. *Florida
#8. Arkansas
9. Louisiana
#10. *Minnesota
#11. Iowa
#12. New Hampshire
#13. *Oregon
#14. *Nevada
#15. *Arizona
#16. New Mexico
#17. *Colorado
#18. Maine
19. New Jersey
20. Delaware
21. North Carolina
22. *Tennessee
#23 Virginia - some hope for Dem but not a lot
#24 Washington

* Suggested as in play back in March by Zogby
# suggested as in play by Cook at some point in 04
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Parche Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-07-04 12:39 PM
Response to Original message
1. states
My guess is NC, FL, MO, VA and a good chance at TN and SC
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-07-04 12:46 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. thanks
:-)
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ButterflyBlood Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-07-04 01:31 PM
Response to Reply #1
13. NO chance in SC
it's the Deep South, and * had a 15 point lead in the last poll.
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kwolf68 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-07-04 12:44 PM
Response to Original message
2. Hmmm
I think Ohio and FLA will lean our way

Right now I would say Chimp leads PA, Michigan

I like us in Wisco, Minny, West Va, New Hampshire

Love us in Oregon, Nevada, Maine, NJ, Delaware, Washington

No idea in Arkansas, New Mexico, Iowa as those states are TCTC

No Chance in Tennessee, Virginia (Im in Va and have traveled all through the stateAs you get away from the Northern Va area you see nothing but Chimp stickers and religious whackery)
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Tweed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-07-04 12:50 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. A recent poll showed Kerry up by 8% in Michigan n\t
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TheFarseer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-07-04 12:51 PM
Response to Reply #2
6. I think we're cooked if we lose MI and PA
I just can't tell you how chimpy gained support in those states
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GOPBasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-07-04 01:10 PM
Response to Reply #2
10. Not MI.
We're up by 5% - 10% depending on which poll you look at. I think you're right about PA.
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Tweed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-07-04 12:48 PM
Response to Original message
4. My two cents
Delaware is ours. I don't see any New England states, except for New Hampshire possibly, going for Bush

West Virginia seems out of reach. I don't think Edwards magically puts it back into play.

Arizona is out of play and Edwards won't help at all there. Edwards got less then 12% of the Democratic vote in the primary.

Colorado is in play? I would give up on any state in the Mountain West besides New Mexico.

North Carolina is still out of play. If anything, Edwards hurts our chances in North Carolina. He didn't run for senate again in part because he wasn't polling well. Some of this may go away and North Carolinans(?) will decide that it would be nice to have a VP from their state, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Tennessee is a lost cause. Bush is up by 7 or 8 points here. Edwards nearly lost to Clark here and got creamed by Kerry. If the Democrats had a lukewarm impression of Edwards, I don't see why others would be different.

Washington is ours regardless of who is on the ticket.

Overall Edwards won't help that much on a state to state basis. He will help on a national basis adding excitement to the ticket. I don't see how Edwards will hit upon something that people in Tennessee like better then Iowa. I'm not claiming to be an expert, but that's just how I see it.


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Doosh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-07-04 01:35 PM
Response to Reply #4
15. edwards
Edited on Wed Jul-07-04 01:37 PM by Doosh
didn't "nearly lose to clark" he cam from behind to beat clark, just check surveyusa.

Edwards will help in Missouri, Fla, Iowa, and Louisiana.
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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-07-04 12:52 PM
Response to Original message
7. western states favor Kerry by 21-points!!
I always thought the east was our strong region--that is incredible.
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Bombtrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-07-04 12:55 PM
Response to Original message
8. Here's my current take on the electoral map
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-07-04 01:07 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. Thanks
:-)
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Tweed Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-07-04 01:12 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. Illinois is safely Dem
Even before the Jack Ryan fiasco, Kerry was going to take Illinois without a visit. Now with the Republicans still lacking a GOP Senate candidate and all of the scandals that have plauged them in the past. Illinois is more then ever safely Dem.
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Bombtrack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-07-04 01:17 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. It isn't any safer than the light red states I have for the GOP
The two different shades of blue are both overlapped by the "safe" virticle label if you'd notice that. While the yellow and yellowish green and orange are both overlapped by the "battleground" label. Clearly indicating Illinois is not part of the battleground
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Doosh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jul-07-04 01:33 PM
Response to Original message
14. NJ is safely Dem
.
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