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aaroh Donating Member (460 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 04:07 AM
Original message
Obama's Projections Becomes Reality
Edited on Thu Apr-24-08 04:59 AM by aaroh
Remember a few months back an Obama projection spreadsheet was leaked to Bloomberg News showing their projections for each primary results. Well I looked at the actual results so far and compared it to the spreadsheet and guess what? Each prediction of a win or loss came true! Except for New Mexico where Hillary won by a narrow margin.



Actual Results: http://origin.barackobama.com/resultscenter /

Take a look at the next 3 primaries (Guam,NC,Indiana), they have projected a clean sweep. The margin predictions have been close too. So if this spreadsheet is any indication of the upcoming contests, Obama is well on his way to take out Indiana too where Hillary is favored to win.

Full spreadsheet can be downloaded here: http://ia341038.us.archive.org/1/items/Obamaexcel/obama...

They're doing better than expected:
Predicted pledged delegates gained (from Iowa to Pa): 1439
Actual pledged delegates gained (from Iowa to Pa) : 1494
underestimated by : 55
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dkf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 04:13 AM
Response to Original message
1. Huge underestimation on Hawaii.
I didn't realize...wow.

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FrenchieCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 04:15 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. They were being conservative
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aaroh Donating Member (460 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 04:22 AM
Response to Reply #2
6. they didn't project a virtually uncontested effort from Hillary after super Tuesday
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davidpdx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 04:20 AM
Response to Original message
3. Those were definitely conservative estimates in some states
I think in North Carolina Obama will win by more then then think, West Virginia and Kentucky are going to be blowouts for Clinton just because of demographics. Indiana and Oregon are going to be the ones to watch. If he wins both of those it's over.
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dbmk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 04:22 AM
Response to Reply #3
5. Given that they overestimated the popular vote in PA
..they might also be shooting a little over the target on IN.
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davidpdx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 04:43 AM
Response to Reply #5
7. Yes, I think so as well
Indiana will be a heck of a lot closer then that. I'm hoping he takes both of the May 6th states and ends this.
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my3boyz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 04:20 AM
Response to Original message
4. Hope they are right about Indiana and North Carolina too.
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johnnydrama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 05:45 AM
Response to Original message
8. he won Maine too.
He has it for Hillary.
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high density Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 05:34 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. Which is kind of funny because it was a blowout win for him... 63% of the vote
:)
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Bucky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 07:13 AM
Response to Original message
9. The totals look like Clinton will win
The bottom line says Clinton will win the delegate race 1093-1067. How is that optimistic?
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aaroh Donating Member (460 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 05:28 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. thats projections up to feb 5th
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