Hillary's right. If a Dem can't win the big prizes, s/he's probably unelectable.

[BuyingThyme]

And I've noticed that Hillary seems to have trouble with the big prizes.

In fact, she's lost in most of the urban areas, including San Francisco, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Dallas, Houston, Austin, Chicago, Boston, Richmond...

So, if she can't manage to win in these large urban communities, can she really expect to win in November?

That is, are these not the traditional keys to Democratic victory?

Maybe she's right. Maybe she should drop out now.

[tekisui]

1. Colorado and Virginia are big too.

[Alexander]

19. As are Georgia, Maryland and North Carolina.

[damndude]

32. don't forget the biggest prizes of all

pledged delegates
popular vote (not the fake kind either)
states won

if anyone protests we'll just have to bring up negativity ratings, sleaze ball campaign, sleaze ball surrogates, sleaze ball math, debt ratings, respectability, cronyism, and monica lewinski

[bluetrain]

2. You think SF and Austin are going to vote Red? Really? No, you don't.

[Ned_Devine]

3. I believe the author was being somewhat "tongue in cheek"

[BuyingThyme]

4. So, you think Hillary is mistaken?

[bluetrain]

14. No, I think you're being disingenuous and divisive.

[BuyingThyme]

17. Disingenuous, maybe; divisive, not really.

[tekisui]

9. You think California, Mass, NY, and NJ are going to vote red?

Really? No you don't.

It's a stupid argument Hillary is using.

[paulk]

25. but that 's not the argument she's making

no matter how many times you raise this straw man.

[tekisui]

29. She is saying Obama does not win the "big states" and she does.

Meaning that Obama cannot win them in the Fall. And he can, and he will.

[paulk]

37. nobody thinks that Obama won't win the big blue states

The fact that Obama has only won one of the nine biggest states (that one being his home state of Illinois) means that Hillary appeals to a more diverse voter group, since the bigger states are more diverse by nature, and certainly more diverse than the caucus states. This would translate into Hillary being more competitive in the swing states, where this election, like all elections, will be won or lost.


The other part of the argument is that Obama's strength has been over represented by the process itself - that he has built up his lead in caucus states, which by their very nature are not representative, and southern states (which we won't win in the GE) where his built in demographic advantages have once again given a false picture of his general election strength.


The bigger states offer a better snapshot of the country and even the party than the smaller caucus states and southern states. Obama has done a brilliant job of campaigning for the nomination - however, winning the nomination and winning the general election are two different things.

[johnnydrama]

38. oy, here we go again.

Washington, Oregon, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado, Michigan, New Mexico, Michigan.

All are states that McCain is leading or tied with Hillary in the polls, and all are Obama leading or tied with McCain.

These states count just as much as PA or OH, and she could lose most of them.

[paulk]

40. the polls don't mean shit at this point

come on, really. Kerry was winning at this point last go round. Dukakis was, too. By a lot.

[democrattotheend]

18. I don't believe Obama will lose New York or California

Which is why her whole "big state" argument is bogus. I think winning big swing states like Pennsylvania and Ohio gives some credibility to her electability argument, but to define it as big states v. small states is ludicrous. And if we are using swing states as a barometer, it should be noted that Obama won Wisconsin, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, Iowa, Maine, Washington, and Missouri.

[tekisui]

5. THis is hilarious. Hillary wins one, an all the spin comes out in

a few hours. She won, they gave her the mic, and this is how she uses it.

She doesn't talk about what she would do as President or how her policies are better, she struts around spinning and whining about what she hasn't won. "Caucuses aren't fair. He has too much money. He can't win big states like me." She uses FL and MI as a political football. She is all self. Nothing to do with the people, only her power.

[dpbrown]

6. Red Herring - how many of those urban areas will go red in November?

Yeah, I thought as much.

On the other hand, Obama's numbers come from states that won't go blue in November.

There's the rub.

[BuyingThyme]

10. You're almost there.

[tekisui]

12. NY, NJ, CA, MA.

Are they gonna go red? No chance. Hillary is standing in thin air on this one.

[dpbrown]

26. I think the point is that Democrats in blue states prefer Senator Clinton

Blue states are going to win the election.

[tekisui]

31. Which election, the general?

Blue states do not win the election. They give us the base. THe swing states give us the election.

[dpbrown]

33. If a potential nominee can't persuade majorities of Dems in blue states, swing states are toast

What Republican appeal does Senator Obama have? None.

[tekisui]

35. He has a lot of 1-Independent Appeal. 2-New Voter Appeal.

Hillary has neither and motivates the repuke base. THey hate the Clintons.

Many repukes like Obama, whether you believe it or not. Obama has won the majority of the DEMOCRATS. Why is a blue state Dem more important than a red state Dem?

That is some elitist shit you are selling.

[BuyingThyme]

34. Hey, that's good.

:hi:

[karynnj]

36. Actually, I would want the one who did best in the purple states

Even then just because more people prefer A to B, does not mean the number that prefer A to C is greater than B to C, where C=McCain and A and B are the two Democrats.

But if, we ignore that for a moment and realize that without a landslide:
- The Blue states are ours
- The Red states are theirs.

Who can win the purple states is more important than who can win the blue ones,

[ShortnFiery]

15. My state - VIRGINIA - has an excellent chance of turning blue with Obama as our Nominee.

:thumbsup:

[dpbrown]

20. With any Democrat

They just elected a Democratic Senator.

[ShortnFiery]

22. Nope, odds are not there for HRC. Obama won decisively. eom

[Alexander]

24. Actually Hillary polls worse against McCain in Virginia than Obama...

Just like Colorado, Connecticut, Washington, Oregon, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Hampshire and Iowa.

[dpbrown]

30. Obama won't win a single state in the Confederate south in the general

Sorry, that's just the way it is.

[datopbanana]

16. dp fails to realize this is how "BO can't win big states" looks to rational people

[BuyingThyme]

23. There are apparently a lot of people having trouble with that fallacy.

In listening to Terry McCauliffe (sp?) today, I get the impression that this "argument" is at the center of the Hillary campaign strategy.

[Cronus Protagonist]

28. Yeah, it looks like his Barack is worse than his bite :P

[mrreowwr_kittty]

7. Don't forget Baltimore and DC. nt

[ShortnFiery]

8. Hillary LIES and CHEATS. All states are important - not just her definition of "big states"

:thumbsdown:

[BlooInBloo]

11. Heh. I wonder what the biggest city she's won in is?

[BuyingThyme]

13. NY.

[BlooInBloo]

21. (smacks forehead)

:rofl:

[rniel]

27. I'm beginning to think

She can't close the deal here.

:rofl: :rofl:

[EFerrari]

39. She didn't close the deal on Super Tuesday. She should drop out.

:shrug: