I hate to sound like a PIA, but you & I KNOW a Dem will NEVER win

[napi21]

Ga, SC, WY, KY, and most likely none of the red states in the middle of the Country. I know this is a Clinton talking point, but don't you really believe it too? I HATE that it's true, but there really are a lot of States that Obama has won in the Dem Primary that NO Dem candidate stands a chance to win in the GE.

[scheming daemons]

1. Never? the black pop. of SC and GA make them possible.....

Never say never.


Demographics of states change. Virginia is now in play. So is NC. So is NV and CO.

[provis99]

17. Oh? Name one of those states where the black population is a majority.

If Democrats can't win Mississippi, they can't win any southern state, because there are more than twice as many white southerners as black southerners, meaning the Republicans will sweep the south, as usual.

[kwenu]

19. Is it White southerners/Black Southerners or Republicans vs. Democrats?

Or does it make a difference in your mind? Aren't we trying get Dem support plus in those states?

[scheming daemons]

24. They don't have to be a majority.... just enough to push Obama over the top.....

If he gets 90+% in Georgia of the black vote..... and can hit 35% of the white vote.... he'll win the state.


Its demographics are more cosmopolitan than they used to be.

[MattBaggins]

31. Hillary folks

just can't get past the "Black" thing eh? Obama can only win if he has blind unthinking black folks to prop him up?

[HockeyMom]

2. Given the tone of everything I am hearing

Neither Hillary nor Obama will even get Florida. It will be McCain and not even close.

[rox63]

6. Unfortunately, he appeals to the Geezer vote even more than Hillary does n/t

[babydollhead]

8. Florida is jeb bushed promised

[Muttocracy]

3. KY went for Bill in 1996

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:ElectoralCollege1996.svg

[DJ13]

4. We werent supposed to win in Virgina until Webb won either

As the lottery likes to say, you've gotta play to be a winner.

[sushi]

5. Especially if

that Democratic nominee is ultra left!

[redqueen]

12. Ultra left? It ain't gonna be Kucinich... so no worries there. (nt)

[MadBadger]

7. I agree, but we can win states like NC, CO, and VA

[redstate_democrat]

10. and Missouri for sure. Missouri has a popular Democratic AG

running for governor with basically no opposition. The current one term Republican governor is not running again and has a lot of folks in Missouri PISSED OFF. McCaskill just won due to urban support. Missouri is in play if the right cards are played. MO is a sister state to IL. McCaskill knows what she speaks of.

Southern states like MS, GA, AL are in play too with Obama.

[Terran]

14. Missouri will go heavily Dem this year

and tip the state into blue territory. We've had a mini-Bush for governor for 4 years and a lot of people hate the repugs here at the moment.

[redstate_democrat]

23. Exactly

A lot of Dem leaders are asleep at the wheel on states who are just itching to turn Blue again. Bush has worn them out.

These DEM leaders need to recognize that demographics change. Things don't stay static. What was surely Blue in 1996 might not be that way now. What was red might not be that way now. We basically give away states we have no business giving away. That is why Dean's 50 state strategy is so important. We should make Repugs fight for each and every state. Wear them out everywhere. Missouri is very likely to go blue. Those southern states with heavy AA populations as well. I'm talking about states with just mostly black and white folks, with heavy AA populations. That is a Democratic dream come true. Now that voting rights legislation is solidly enforced, educaton levels are up within these communities, and communication and technology are advanced, we can get these people to the polls and blow the Republicans right out of the water in the South.

But some Dems are content with hanging on for dear like to states like Ohio and Florida by the tips of their fingernails and screaming bloody hell that the sky will fall if they don't get these states. Problem is, they spend so much time, effort, and money in these states to the neglect of 20 other states. That is what the Republicans want us to do. Bush visited Penn over 40 times. We need to visit schizophrenic red states (states that could flip like a dime) and purple states just as much. We have to come to understand that things DO CHANGE. People move, demographics change, people change.

But that is just my theory.

[MadBadger]

25. Missouri will be a solid red state this year IMO.

[redstate_democrat]

27. What makes you think that?

I happen to know for a fact that will absolutely not be the case.

[MadBadger]

32. Looking at some polls, I see Obama down 8-14 points.

I see it in the end being a 52-48 point win for the Repukes. Maybe not solid, but I see it going to the Republicanzs.

[Terran]

36. Missouri is never a "solid red" state

Three of our five statewide elected officials are currently Dems; one of our US Senators is a Dem. We tip in the balance every election, and it won't take much this year to tip us to the left. "Some polls" six months before the election mean nothing.

[totodeinhere]

9. This year will be different.

With the economy in the worst shape it's been in a long time, with gas approaching $4 a gallon, and with no end in sight to the Iraq debacle, a Dem like Obama could very well end up picking up a lot of so-called red states.

[wiggs]

13. Agree...if we put a dem forward that can separate himself from the GOP on

votes and campaign tactics.

[redqueen]

11. I'm sure they thought a Rep would never win stuff before Reagan came along, too...

but they had to nominate Ford first, and they lost... so...

:shrug:

[JVS]

15. GA is going to flip one of these days. The Atlanta metropolitan area cannot expand endlessly...

without the state undergoing political changes that bring it more into line with other states dominated by a city, such as IL or NY.

[bunkerbuster1]

18. yeah, that too.

See also my thoughts about the folks already living there. But like you say, GA is growing by millions, and those folks aren't coming from other southern states, they're coming from the North. those folks are not terrified of liberals.

[napi21]

26. I've lived in Ga. for 8 years now, and I've been saying that same thing

and getting disappointed every damn election! It seems to be going to other way! Look at the AH Senators we have now compared to Max! I keep hearing about Atlanta expanding too, but not enough to washout the fundies! I remember being sooo excited to be able to find quite a number of Dems for our Dean meetups and the enthusiasm was VERY HIGH. We did everything we could. We went door to door, we made phone calls, hand wrote support letters....Nothing made any difference.

You have no idea how much I would love for you to be right, but I've been disappointed so damn often, I just can't see it happening.

[bunkerbuster1]

16. A word about Georgia.

GA Republicans cling to power even though they are not especially liked by actual Georgians. They cling to power by convincing an overwhelming majority of white folks to be terrified of liberals; they’ve completely written off the black vote, and typically receive an astonishingly small share of black votes.

This is not that high a mountain for the Democrats to climb. An energized African-American voting base, and a modest shift of fed-up white voters, and GA is in play. I think Obama has a shot at doing that. Clinton, not so much.

[old mark]

21. In the PA primary, ...

...a lot of "former Republicans"-even lifelong Republicans- joined the Democrats -most voted for Obama.
It is possiblle in Georgia it may even be likely.

mark

[barack the house]

20. ALSO blue big states won't likely go red either don't buy HRC spin.Money buy GE ads Obama's got that

[kwenu]

22. Is there a conclusion to your statement that you'd like to share?

Therefore: What?

[napi21]

29. I'm scared to death that neither Dem candidate can win the GE, but

each for a different reason. I'm scared that there will be NO HOPE at all left if McCain wins by default. Sorry to sound so defeatist, but I feel like I've been fighting for so long and still losing. I guess I'm close to just giving up. I'm 64, so I'll probably be dead before the real disaster hits hard.

[kwenu]

33. McCain is 71. You don't think you can at least outlast him?

It seems you've given yourself no options and I'm not sure why. Knock it off with the defeatist attitude. You've had more democratic presidents in your lifetime than I've had. ( Only two.)

Pony up, cowboy you've still got a lot of ridin to do!

[napi21]

39. I failed to explain myself well enough. If McCain wins the GE, and

if he nominates 3 SC Justices, continues the war in Iraq, attacks Iran, expands Shrubs tax cuts, and eliminates the Capital Gains taxes, I will NEVER outlive the consequences of all of that! I don't know how old you are, but if you are over 40, you probably wouldn't outlive them either. As all of us try to adjust our lifestyle to absorb the constantly rising gas prices, rapidly increasing food prices, and insurance costs out of control, I simply can't see anything positive other than a Dem in the WH and the Dems capturing a strong control of Congress. Telling me to knock off the defeatist attitude and saying I've experienced more Dem Presidents in my life doesn't put any spark of improvement in the future.

[elfin]

28. Sadly, I agree but not for the parsing of the electorate

you propose.

McPain is not part Black and not Hillary -- all he has to do is lie enough to seem "mainstream" and a "maverick" enough to sway Independents and the Reagen Dems to him.

Plus, the MSM loves him.

We lose no matter how we count it. For sure with Hillary - maybe with Obama (my choice).

She loses the young new voters who hoped for Obama and also all those blue collar voters who are with her now, but who will switch back into their comfort zone of mistrust and fear of change, figuring they will bet screwed once again.

Bigotry will triumph yet again against our common interests.

Please forgive my pessimism.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

30. The same could be said about McCain winning the large liberal states.

McCain won't win CA, NY, MA, IL, NJ, etc.

Nor does he stand a chance in the smaller liberal states.

Both Hilly (ugh!) or Obama would probably win enough battleground states to trounce McLoony.

[NashVegas]

34. I Think We Have a Good Shot for Kentucky and Indiana

Maybe Montana or Idaho will surprise us.

[MadBadger]

37. No way in Idaho and Kentucky

Obama is getting clobbered right now in the primary polls for Kentucky, and I think race is a large reason why. I expect to lose big there. Also in Idaho, there just are not that many dems there. Montana and Indiana on the other hand, there is a shot.

[NashVegas]

38. LOL ... Who Says It Will Necessarily Be Obama?

Either way, I would not count Kentucky out - not unless you are taking it for granted that a) Obama WILL be the nominee and b) he WILL win EVERY blue state that Hillary won. Not unless you want to insinuate his support of the 50-state strategy is a total charade.

You wouldn't insinuate that, would you?

[Vinca]

35. The point is, the blue states won't turn red if Obama is the nominee

and purple states may turn blue. Red states are a long shot, of course, but stranger things have happened - look at the Montana governor. The same holds true for Hillary, actually, although she may not have the same purple/red state appeal.