Clinton Must Win Big For Pennsylvania To Really Count

[WillyT]

<snip>

The polls have been garbage. One survey last week showed Hillary Clinton leading in Pennsylvania by 14 points. Another one, published the next day, had Barack Obama ahead by 3.

But if the weekend polling numbers are more accurate – a big “if” in this primary campaign – Ms. Clinton is ahead by between 3 and 5 percentage points on the eve of the Pennsylvania primary. Mr. Obama probably has an edge among newly registered voters and converted Republicans who might not be captured by the polls, but Ms. Clinton historically wins a majority of those who make up their minds in the last 24 hours.

Put it all together and it is possible to forecast, with no great degree of confidence whatsoever, a modest but respectable victory for Ms. Clinton in Pennsylvania tomorrow.

Which is as good as another defeat.

Despite Mr. Obama's lacklustre debate performance last week, his verbal gaffe about bitter rural voters and the latest questions about people with whom he associates– this time the questions focus on William Ayers, a university professor who consorted, four decades ago, with the violent Weather Underground – the Illinois senator continues what seems to be his inexorable march to the Democratic presidential nomination.

To trip up that march, Ms. Clinton has to win by an impressive margin in Pennsylvania, and then to export that momentum to North Carolina and Indiana, which hold primaries May 6.

Unless she pushes her margin of victory to 10 points or more, then her win in Pennsylvania will work against her, rather than for her.

A close result will not allow her to appreciably narrow Mr. Obama's lead of 164 pledged delegates. (This is the Associated Press figure. Surveys vary, because in some states that have voted, delegates are yet to be formally chosen at state conventions.) Pennsylvania awards one-third of its 158 pledged delegates based on the statewide popular vote. The rest are apportioned based on the votes within each Congressional district, with heavily Democratic districts receiving more delegates than ones that traditionally go Republican.

Ms. Clinton is strong in Pittsburg and the rural parts of the state. Mr. Obama has the edge in Philadelphia. It is entirely possible that, yet again, Ms. Clinton could win the popular vote but win fewer delegates. At best, her gains are expected to be marginal.

Without a big win in the keystone state, Ms. Clinton will be unable to stem the steady trickle of superdelegates – party bigwigs who get to vote at the convention – over to Mr. Obama. Ms. Clinton exploited her deep connections within the Democratic Party to amass a considerable early lead among superdelegates, who will make up about 20 per cent of the votes at the Democratic National Convention in August.

But as Mr. Obama has racked up repeated victories, that support has leached away. In February, Ms. Clinton led him by about 80 votes in the superdelegate count. Today that lead has shrunk to 26, according to the Associated Press survey. The New York Times has it down to 7.

If Ms. Clinton cannot energize her campaign with a big win in Pennsylvania, then the remaining 400 or so uncommitted superdelegates might start to take Howard Dean's advice. “I need them to say who they're for, starting now,” the chairman of the Democratic National Committee said last week. He wants a presumptive nominee chosen no later than June.

For many Democrats, June feels like a long way off. In the final days of the Pennsylvania campaign, the Clinton television advertisements, and those of a political action committee that supports her, have grown increasingly hostile, accusing Mr. Obama of a health care plan that would leave 15 million Americans uninsured.

The Obama campaign responded with an ad yesterday that accuses the Clinton campaign of endorsing “11th-hour smears, paid for by lobbyist money: Isn't that exactly what we need to change?”

The Republicans are writing it all down.

<snip>

Link: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080420.wIbbitson21/BNStory/

:shrug:

[Zachstar]

1. Well it depends.

What I am starting to believe is that if she can keep it above 5 she will use the victory to try to build the warchest. She desperately needs new donors as many of the old ones have maxed out.

She knows that Obama has a plan for may. Obama will likely use the funds he has amassed through the months to put ads, offices and effort well downstream to start generating interest where Clinton cant really touch due to funding issues.

She is not looking for energizing anymore in my view. She is trying to gain enough money to delay big Obama wins.

She keeps it Above 5 and she will be able to say she is still in this race and the "Hillaryclinton dot com!" line will be said over and over again.

Indiana is not a firewall state like PA is. And Obama has already got Indiana at play with North Carolina already looking like a large victory for him. If she can't hold Indiana and Obama pulls off a double win.. She will be virtually defeated. She has to rack up victories to build the warchest.

[BlueIdaho]

5. Above 5 isn't enough

The SDs, party officials, and savvy political analysts all know she really needs 15+ to 20+ to move the needle. Her campaign has been successful in lowering expectations for the masses but folks in the know are not fooled by her campaign rhetoric.

If its only 5-8 expect to see SDs moving rapidly to Obama and news coverage of her campaign souring.

[Zachstar]

6. It is not about the SDs it is about perception = money

I suspect that many potential Clinton donors are scared they will donate into a black hole of a campaign. She will use the win to try to appeal to them to donate. Money she desperately needs to keep Indiana from completely slipping away.

And she needs to get the donations flooding in because of that court hearing on the (25th was it?) Which may scare them into not donating again.

Now this is all just my view. But She needs that initial boost.

[BlueIdaho]

12. Agreed but

HRC has just about bled all her big money supporters dry. Unfortunately, she just doesn't have the level of grass roots donor support as Obama. Her campaign is running on fumes now - O think that's why she is dragging her heels releasing her financials. I'll bet we'll see another big family loan. A poor showing on Tuesday works against her on every level.

I guess we'll see.

[quantass]

10. .

[peoli]

2. The next day people will look at the math and remember... It Is Over.

[monicaaida]

3. SUSA POLL CLINTON BY 12

SUSA POLL


CLINTON BY 12

[quakerboy]

7. 12 isnt enough

she needs a minimum of 16 to keep on pace to win. Actually, given how the math works turning raw votes into delegates, she probably needs slightly more than that. And thats making a big assumption she can turn NC, OR, etc around to heavily favor her as well.

[jaxx]

4. I'll be glad when the damn thing is over.

This has dragged on way too long.

[PseudoIntellect]

8. I don't think the average voter

realizes that she was ahead by high teens in PA a few weeks ago and is now only ahead by mid single digits.

A win is a win to most people, and the momentum would carry even if it was 50% to 49.5%.

[my3boyz]

9. I will be so happy to see yet another firewall for Clinton GONE...

Now Obama will blow her ass out of North Carolina. He will keep it real close in Indiana. Then blow her out of Oregon! As Chuck Todd said, she has no way to beat his popular vote. He said she could net 200,000-250,000 out of PA. Then he said the states she is supposed to win and the ones he is supposed to win essentially cancel each other out. So there is no way for her to make up the deficit. So Hillary can keep on fighting but she will lose.

[WA98070]

11. Clinton bought many of those SD's by holding fundraisers for them...

[wisteria]

13. Last minute voters usually go for the new candidate. I think Obama will take it Tuesday. n/t

[WillyT]

14. Kick !!!

:kick: