Hillary's Going To Win Pennsylvania By Twelve Points!

[slinkerwink]

Don't pay attention to the PA polls showing a tight race with Obama consistently behind Clinton five or six points. The number of the undecided voters is the real story here. In the Zogby/Newsmax poll recently released, the number of undecideds shrank from 11% to 8%, and 3% of them broke Clinton's way. In most primaries to this date, the undecided voters have broken her way by two-thirds, so expect a bump of 4% to her vote margin in Pennsylvania. Also, there's the Rendell machinery to help her get out the vote, and that's worth 3%.

Let's keep it real, Obama supporters.

[ClassWarrior]

1. At least.

They're trying to manage expectations by calling it any lower than that.

NGU.

[papau]

17. Today Zog says Obama ahead in PA - if true expectations will not matter

[hisownpetard]

2. A month or so ago, she was supposed to be up by 20.

[ClassWarrior]

3. I'm guessing she's really not much below that.

Of course, the Corporate News Networks won't tell you that, because they thrive on catfights and slander.

NGU.

[hisownpetard]

4. We shall soon see. But dream on.

[ClassWarrior]

12. .

I'm only dreaming that O people in the remaining states will stay energized and not let bogus news make them complacent.

NGU.

[slinkerwink]

6. whenever the Clinton camp lower expectations, they know they'll get a larger win

[stray cat]

5. She is expected to win by almost 20% points based on polls a month ago

Given the way things have gone - she should at least be able to maintain her 20 point lead with her PA appeal. After all the state is her core constituents...

[newmajority]

7. It all depends on whether the turnout is massive enough to offset the Rendell theft factor

He's already got the machines rigged. That much we can count on. Hopefully, the turnout will overwhelm Eddie's crap.

[slinkerwink]

16. hopefully a massive turnout will happen on Tuesday.

[BlueJac]

8. We can just wait and see like everyone else....

GOBAMA!

[Catherina]

9. I disagree but I'm the optimistic type

who has faith in most Democrats good sense.

[ej510]

11. I agree I have consistently said 5-10% pts. or may be more.

[slinkerwink]

15. I tend to be pessimistic when it comes to a state with a large rural population

[Zachstar]

26. Well yes but I think it needs to be more that it is a Clinton firewall.

I mean common people did not have to line up in the heat to see Obama give a whistle stop speech. They did not have to drive to the train station to wave to Obama as he slow rolled by.

I want to give those people a chance. They came out for us. We need to remain hopeful to them.

Hope for the best prepare for the worst.

[rock]

10. That is also my prediction

as a minimum. I don't believe it will be over 16.

[slinkerwink]

14. exactly!

[rock]

21. But keep in mind

I'm pretty bad at predicting. I predicted that Gore would win in 2000. I predicted Kerry would win in 2004. Umm, wait a minute!

[Zachstar]

25. Well gore Won. Kerry is well needs investigation. But gore's win has been proven

[Quixote1818]

13. The latest Zogby poll shows movement back towards Obama.

Which would indicate that the undecideds are moving back towards Obama.

[ClassWarrior]

19. There's only one poll I can even begin to trust this time around.

The official one on Election Day.

NGU.

[slinkerwink]

18. People are being stupid in thinking Obama will win PA. He's not going to.

[Zachstar]

24. Some say that and yes it is building expectations.. However,

It is also good to have hope and spirit. If we were just going to expect a loss we could have just taken a break till May.

Clinton is putting up a battle in PA. Make no mistake. But that is effort in PA that she cant give in downstream states like was planned and that means Obama goes into May with an advantage regardless. He put PA in play and we put PA in play and the people I feel are going to reward the effort.

[SKKY]

29. He doesn't need to. All he needs to do is keep it close...

...If HRC doesn't win by 20% points, her chances become even more unlikely. Like, the kind that will require a fundamental change in Math.

[yellowcanine]

20. People who are still undecided may stay home. These are probably mostly McCain voters.

Undecided within 2 days of a closed primary? I think many of these will not bother to vote. Probably helps Obama.

[slinkerwink]

22. I do think they'll come out to vote.

[Zachstar]

23. I hope you are wrong but prepared for 12-15 just in case.

However, When 35 thousand watched Obama give an historic speech declaring independence from the politics of the past. And when you got people driving up to train stations just to see Obama slow roll through the area then I really think that there is Obama support that few have seen just waiting to vote!

Tho I will admit. It is a Clinton firewall and she will likely maintain that firewall status.

However, We wanted Obama to put PA in play. We said that we were not content just planning for a loss. People are saying "Oh he spent 10 million and he cant win" well that was the money of the many donors who said they wanted PA in play. And they are still donating. So it is money well spent even if it reduces her lead by just 5.

It was a good run and now it is in the hands of the people on Pennsylvania.

[slinkerwink]

28. Yes, it's in their hands now.

[rocktivity]

27. Too bad that's only HALF the margin of victory she'll need

if she wants to be successful at throwing herself on the mercy of the superdelegates. And she'll not only need that margin in PA, but in ALL the remaining contests.

:headbang:
rocknation

[SemiCharmedQuark]

30. I'd be super happy with 12%

I don't have any doubt she'll win PA.

[slinkerwink]

31. oh, she'll win PA.

[hell-bent]

32. If my math is correct then Hillary comes out

of Pennsylvania with 360,000 more votes than BO if the spread is 12%. Assuming 3 million votes are cast out of the 4.1 million registered Democratic voters then that is 12% of 3 million equaling a 360,000 vote plurality for Clinton. Wow! Add that to the 300,000 plurality in Florida then Obmaa only has a 40,000 vote lead in the popular vote. Well, what will the SDs think about that?

[Milo_Bloom]

33. 12 points would be about 18 too little for her.

She needs to get 65% of the vote to make a real dent in the delegate count.

Anything less than 65 to 35 is the final nail.

[bhikkhu]

34. That would be a big loss for HRC!

on edit - or to be positive: a big win for Obama!

[TML]

35. Huh?

I would never pay attention to a Newsmax poll. They had Obama winning California by double digits on Super Tuesday.

[Stinky The Clown]

36. If she wins by 100 to 0 she would STILL be trailing in delegates.

It would be close, but even is she were to get 100% of the vote, she can't pull ahead.

And since she can't pull ahead, the easier and better thing is to pull out.

[Petey Wheatie]

37. Mama gonna spank in PA. Obamababies gonna cry. lol n/t