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How Hillary *could* win, why she probably won't and why it won't go to the convention.

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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-17-08 07:32 AM
Original message
How Hillary *could* win, why she probably won't and why it won't go to the convention.
Hillary could win. If she beats Obama by say, 17 points in PA, the MSM will not only cast her as having the big mo, they'll portray him as collapsing. That perception could feed into Indiana and North Carolina. If she beats him by 15+ in Indiana and edges him out in SC on May 6, wallops him in KY and WV and ekes out a win in Oregon, SDs will think long and hard about what to do- particularly as she'll have cut his pledged delegate lead and may well have the popular vote lead. She'll absolutely have a case to make if the above scenario comes to pass.

But...

That's not likely to happen. It's very unlikely that Hilary can win in North Carolina or Oregon. And odds are that he'll beat her by at least 15 in the former and 10 in the latter. She may bring it close in the popular vote, but she won't win it.

After all the voting is over on June 3, the SDs will come down for Obama and put him over the top. Hillary will drop out. She can't stay in and fight until the convention. It would be her political demise. The Clintons would become complete pariahs within the party. Prominent Clinton SDS like Frank, Corzine and Boxer would defect to Obama. Fundraising would evaporate. Democratic party leaders would publically pressure her.

So, yeah, Hillary could still win the nomination, but the odds against it are enormous.
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rateyes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-17-08 07:48 AM
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1. K & R
That's right, cali.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-17-08 07:51 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. thanks, rateyes
I think that's a fair assessment. and thanks again for the terrific piece you wrote about working in the tobacco shed on your friend's grandfather's farm. it lingers.
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Diamonique Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-17-08 08:03 AM
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3. Yes Obama will get the nomination, but...
... how much damage will Clinton do in the meantime?
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-17-08 08:26 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. As long as it's over in 6 weeks, he'll have the time to
recover from the primary season.
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