Clinton leads by 7 in PA, has big lead among working folks, Nutter may deliver Philadelphia to Hill

[jackson_dem]

Past results

Mid-Feb: H 44, O 37
Mid-Mar: H 51, O 35
Mid-Apr: H 46, O 40 ("likely voters")

With leaners she leads 49-42.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_franklin_marshall_penn_de.php

Favorable/unfavorable ratings among Democrats

O 53-21
H 58-22

This illustrates how out of touch the netroots are from the rest of the party when it comes to Hillary hate. In the blogosphere her ratings are probably something like 10-90.

Income group

Less than 35k: H 49, O 26
35-75k: H 42, O 36
75k or more: H 44, O 41


Ideology

Obama claims he can dazzle rethugs into buying his agenda but this claim looks like a fairy tale. He can't even win the conservative elements of his party. If he can't do that how can he win over rethugs, who are far more conservative than even the most conservative Democrats?

Liberals: O 43, H 42
Moderates: H 48, O 36
Conservative: H 42, O 24

It's the economy, stupid

Are you better off now economically than you were a year ago?

Yes: O 45, H 45
Same: H 43, O 37
Worse: H 47, O 30

Race

White: H 48, O 32
Non-White: O 59, H 22

This poll lumped in all minorities so we can't see the break down by group. Latinos will likely be for Clinton while Obama should be getting at least 70% of the black vote.

Region

Southwest: H 56, O 18
Northwest: H 47, O 31
Central: H 45, O 35
Northeast: H 44, O 39
Allegheny (Pittsburgh area): H 43, O 37
Philadelphia: H 41, O 39
Southeast (Philly suburbs): O 43, H 40

The Philadelphia number is very surprising. Philadelphia is divided evenly between blacks and whites and it also has a large number of upscale "Starbucks" voters. The latter and blacks are two of the three pillars of Obama's coalition. What we have seen in Pennsylvania polling is that Pennsylvania may be the first state (other than NY) where Clinton gets more than 25% of the black vote. What makes Pennsylvania different than the other 41 states that have voted (excluding NY)? The mayor of the state's largest city is an African-American and very popular and it appears he is helping Clinton immensely with the black vote in Philadelphia. That shows in the statewide numbers but naturally Philadelphia is where the bulk of the movement is coming from. He has appeared in an ad for Clinton, for instance. This is a significant blow to Obama if it holds because he needs a big win in Philadelphia on the backs of 85-90% black support, winning "Starbucks Dems" roughly 60-40, carrying the Philadelphia suburbs, which he is doing right now but not nearly by the margin he needs, to offset losing the rest of the state (he loses Pittsburgh, where the mayor also backs Clinton. Pittsburgh is a lot more conservative as far as their brand of Democrats go than Philadelphia anyway).

Caveat #1: The caveat to this is we have seen other states* where polls will say Obama leads among black voters something like 70-15. However, the undecided black voters in each state have broken exclusively for Obama, for whatever reason, perhaps it is a "reverse" Bradley Effect. Even in South Carolina where the movement was to Edwards, who rose from 1% to almost the double digits, when the election came he lost blacks 1-78 (which means anywhere from 14%-25% of AA voters who said they would vote for him actually did so. The rest went to Obama.). If this happens again in Pennsylvania you may see Obama outperform the polls because they do not reflect this trend, although there was no Nutter factor in those other states.

Examples: Ohio poll on 3/2 75-18 (actual result 87-13), Texas 78-13 (actual result 84-16), Wisconsin poll 76-21 (actual result 91-8). I used PPP for as a sample because their format is quick to read. You will find the same with any polling firm and for any state.

Caveat #2: Clinton has the governor's machine behind her and that could be good for some extra points via GOTV. This could help her outperform expectations.


Other points that stick out

*Clinton crushes Obama 52-25 among Catholics.
*Clinton wins union households 42-29
*Obama wins those with a college degree 44-39
*Clinton crushes Obama among those with high school or less (51-26) and leads among those with some college 47-33
*Clinton leads 48-29 among those who think they will be worse of economically in a year (some of the "bitter" vote Obama spoke of)
*Obama leads 42-39 among those who believe they will be better off economically next year


http://media.philly.com/documents/fmdn4168.pdf

[jefferson_dem]

1. By only seven. This is GREAT NEWS...

for Obama.

[jackson_dem]

6. He is going to make that gap up in 6 days? You know what happens in debates

He is down 7. Debates usually give Clinton a few more points.

[democrattotheend]

11. He doesn't need to win

Nobody believes he needs to win. She's the one for whom a loss would be the death blow. He just has to keep it close. If he loses by 7 it'll basically be a draw.

[jackson_dem]

22. He needs to win if he wants to end this next week. If she wins this goes to June

[Milo_Bloom]

26. That is up to her... but unless she has a 65% SWEEP across all

future primaries and PA, it is over and they know it.

[book_worm]

16. other polls out show a closer margin.

One poll even has Obama in the lead. I think Hill will win, but anything under double digits is a set back for her since she has been the favorite all along.

[jackson_dem]

35. The rcp average is Clinton +6.2 so this poll is in line with most

[scheming daemons]

2. Obama is going to win Philly at least 75-25.... Nutter won't deliver crap.....

[Bensthename]

3. Nope, she peaked too early and a backlash is brooing. Her negatives are now higher then ever.

[jackson_dem]

4. Her favorable rating is higher than Obama's among PA Dems

[Bensthename]

7. I don't think it will last till next Tues. We shall see.

[jackson_dem]

23. Time is running out and things have been stable in PA for about 2 weeks

Unless she has a gaffe during the debate she will win PA.

[anonymous171]

5. lol "Nutter"

[BlooInBloo]

8. Clinton says "Screw 'em". Watch a lot of that lead go buh-bye.

[Hawkeye-X]

9. Can you lay down the crackpipe and stop overanalyzing everything?

Take a break, watch the debates, and I promise you, by tomorrow, you'll be an Obama fan.

[cali]

12. Not gonna happen

Some people just won't support Obama- you can draw your own conclusion as to why.

[jackson_dem]

42. He is far more liked than Clinton yet does no better than her against McSame

What could explain it? Inexperience. Many people like him but view him as not up to the toughest job on the planet. If it were racism they would not give him a favorable rating in the first place.

[muryan]

53. Because he's still stuck in a primary?

McCain got a bump when he locked up the nom, it'll be same for Hillary or Obama. I really don't understand how people fail to grasp that concept.

[jackson_dem]

60. That doesn't explain the discrepancy between him and Clinton

Both are in primaries. One is far more liked yet does no better than the other in popular opinion polls nationally and does worse in the electoral college. What explains thinks? I think it is obvious his inexperience is holding many people who like him back.

[grantcart]

10. 7 points what happened to the 20 point lead and the 10 point minimum she needed?

[ErinBerin84]

13. Did anyone see

Tom Daschle on the Fox Sunday morning news show say Mayor Nutty by accident (?), before correcting himself?

[bowens43]

14. HIllary by 7 is a HUGE win for Obama!!

[Demit]

15. Whoever told you Mayor Nutter can do that doesn't live here.

He's a great guy, so far, and we all have high hopes for him as concerns the future of Phila, but he doesn't have that kind of pull. His support for Hillary is understood as tactical—with undertones of other political associations/relationships that predate the presidential race. Phila politics is byzantine, to put it mildly.

[jackson_dem]

28. What makes PA different than the 41 other states not named NY that have voted thus far?

Nutter is the only major variable. He doesn't need to deliver the black vote. All he has to do is get her an extra 10-15% statewide (20-25% overall) and also bring some whites who supported him along as well.

[Demit]

69. Nutter's influence does not extend statewide.

This primary is between two candidates who have especially fervent supporters. They are not going to be swayed by any particular pol's support. This is the kind of election that even the local ward pols know to leave alone, that they can't expect the usual loyalty from voters to vote for whomever they're pushing. Nutter might be able to get Clinton some $ from high-profile donors, but no way can he count on bringing her votes from the rank-and-file, black or white. And I don't think he expects to.

[cali]

17. Edward's was never at 1% in SC

like so many of your "facts", it's pure goose crap.

[jackson_dem]

24. He was with blacks. He lost 1-78 to Obama in SC among blacks

[book_worm]

18. New Daily News poll shows Obama closing in on Clinton (that's the title of the article)

This is good news, Jackson_DEM!! Thanks!! Obama went from a 16-point deficit to a 6-7 point deficit since last month. It continues the trend we've been seeing of Obama gaining ground.

[jackson_dem]

30. The problem is he is almost out of laps and things have been basically stable for the past 2 weeks

Can he surge 5-10 points, depending on which poll you look at, in six days?

[book_worm]

41. you don't seem to get it--he doesn't have to win PA he just has to make it close

and it will be interpeted as an Obama win.

[jackson_dem]

44. That is exactly what Obamites said seven weeks ago about Ohio and Texas

Here we are six weeks later and after a narrow win in Texas she is still standing. :)

Obama outspent her 3:1. Losing is winning? Who else loses when spending that much money? Mitt Romney? The Obama argument goes both ways. He did come back (which ignores the fact he is now where he was two months ago) but he also outspent her 3:1 and yet he apparently will still lose. It could be argued that he underperformed. let's see which spin gains currency starting on 4/23.

[Justitia]

46. Uh, you DO realize Obama won TX, right? -eom

[jackson_dem]

55. Obama lost--by over 100,000 votes

Speaking of losing, Obama lost Nevada again this week. Will he finally concede three months later?

[Justitia]

56. Who won the most delegates in TX? Full Disclosure: I'm a TX delegate, so I know the answer. -eom

[jackson_dem]

59. Oh. So the popular will only counts when it is favorable to Obama?

Obamites are in denial. He lost Texas. Had he won Texas Clinton would probably have been forced out by the supers.

[Justitia]

61. huh? Who won the MOST DELEGATES? Delegates are awarded by popular vote.

You are clinging to a fraction of the total vote.

Obama won the most of the TOTAL vote.

[jackson_dem]

63. Wrong. See Nevada and Iowa

Edwards won more votes than Clinton yet she won 15 delegates to his 14 in Iowa. In Nevada Clinton won the popular vote by 6% but lost the delegate count.

[Justitia]

66. I see the pretzel you are twisting yourself into, but this is a race for delegates.

We define the "winner" as the one w/the most delegates.

I appreciate what you are trying to do, and it appears you are putting a lot of effort into it, but delegates are the bottom line.

You've been nice & civil up to this point and I do appreciate that.

You are a persistent advocate for your candidate, so I applaud that of course.

Take care.

[dansolo]

73. Popular vote doesn't count at all

It's DELEGATES that matter, not popular vote. That is why Hillary is losing. We're this far along and you still haven't figured that out yet?

[Quixote1818]

19. She has to win by a lot more than 7 or she is toast. nt

[SeaLyons]

20. Good stuff...

Thanks for posting.

:kick:

[Justitia]

21. Philly to Hillary? That's the funniest thing I've read all day. -eom

[jackson_dem]

32. Why? Philly does have a large blue-collar population

With Clinton dominating among them, taking a healthy share of Obama's black and affluent white bases in Philadelphia via Nutter it is plausible that she can win the city. Personally I think she will ultimately lose the city but all she has to do is keep O's margin down. If he is to have any shot at winning Pennsylvania he must roll up a huge margin in Philadelphia, win the Philadelphia suburbs by a solid margin because he is going to get creamed everywhere else in the state. The same thing happened in Ohio. He won only four counties in Ohio and did not get the margins he needed out of Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinatti. PA is different in that it has only two major cities (I suppose you could add Dayton and Youngstown to the list for Ohio) and Obama will lose Pittsburgh.

[Justitia]

37. No Freaking Way. Sorry, I'm originally from Philly, family is still there.

Don't kid yourself, Philly is Obama territory, Nutter has nothing to do w/it, don't waste your time trying to analyze it.

And not to burst your bubble, but Pburgh is going for Obama too.

Stick to fleshing out the areas in between if you're looking for hope.

[jackson_dem]

39. The polls that include region usually have O up about 10-15 in Philly

If that holds that is all Hillary needs...

By Pittsburgh I mean the Pittsburgh metro area. There is no polling for the city itself. Obama's only hope is a big win in Philadelphia, carrying the Philadelphia suburbs, and somehow keeping Hillary's margins in the rest of the state down. That is going to be tough when he is as low as 18% in one region of the state.

[Justitia]

45. Take a look at this pic, keeping in mind Philly & Pburg are a lock for Obama...

Those big red centers? Philadelphia & Pittsburgh.

[jackson_dem]

50. I know. We have seen this movie before

Obama won Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati in Ohio and won Dallas and Houston in Texas but lost basically everywhere else. The same thing applies to many Super Tuesday states. The reason for this is obvious. Two of Obama's three pillars of support are blacks and affluent whites (especially young affluent whites) and these groups have big populations in urban centers. The thing is he did not win by enough in the cities to offset losing badly in small towns.

Here is how Ohio voted by county http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#OH
Texas http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#TX

Obama won Cleveland's Cuyohoga county--but only by 53-46. He won Columbus 56-43, Cincinnati 61-38. Now I will pick five random rural counties. He lost them 60-38, 65-32, 78-19, 72-23, and 66-30. Scroll over any random county that he lost and you will consistently see such margins.

Texas? He won Houston--but only 56-43. He did win Dallas 62-38 and Austin 63-37. Clinton did win San Antonio due to winning Latinos 66-31 in the state. Her margin in SA was 56-43. Let's look at five random counties he lost again. 51-47 (ironically this was Midland county that I happened to scroll onto...), 67-28, 77-21, 66-28, 61-30, and 57-41.

*When I say "he won X" I am referring to the county they are in.

[Justitia]

52. So, he wins where all the people are. OK, that works. -eom

[jackson_dem]

57. No, that is why he lost Ohio and Texas

He wins the most populated counties but he loses everywhere else. It adds up. How many counties does Ohio have? He won only four. Losing everywhere else added up and he lost by 10%.

If what you say were true President Kerry would have won in a landslide because Dems win the cities almost everywhere.

[Justitia]

58. Except he won TX, - 98 to 95 -eom

[jackson_dem]

62. He lost the popular vote

He won delegates via a caucus that disenfranchised working folks, immigrants, and seniors all who voting heavily for Clinton.

[Justitia]

67. Caucuses ARE the "popular vote", that's the way we do it in TX, like her husband won in his day.

She just couldn't do it like Bill did when he won here.

More working folks, immigrants, seniors, etc simply turned out for Obama.

98 to 95 (or, 99 to 94).

[Demit]

71. I don't know where you get the idea that Nutter is some kind of new Pied Piper.

You are looking at things on paper, I suspect, and adding a huge dose of wishful thinking at that. The reality is not what you are hoping it is.

[GarbagemanLB]

25. TITLE OF LINKED POLL:New Daily News poll shows Obama closing in on Clinton

Go Obama!

[AllentownJake]

27. So the math is

What does that mean 10-15 delegates...good luck catching up at that pace.

[Milo_Bloom]

29. Her only chance is a 65% SWEEP across PA and all future contests

I love playing with the slate's delegate couner... Obama can lose every single primary from PA on and will still leave Clinton with a nearly impossible task. If he keeps PA within 10 and wins NC even by 1 point, she has no path left to the nomination.

[ej510]

33. Hillary will win Pa but she lost the nomination in after Obama went 11-0!

She cannot win.

[jackson_dem]

40. What is she goes 8-1 to close this out, including blowouts in WV and KY?

[jackson_dem]

34. She won't catch him in pd's and that has long been established

She can conceivably win the popular vote, although that is unlikely. The real thing is superdelegates. She needs to cut down the PD margin and then argue electability to the supers and Obama losing PA, especially the way he is losing (getting creamed among whites and working folks. This is a consistent trend with him along with him losing Latinos badly) will fuel doubts on this among supers.

[AllentownJake]

36. So saying the 7% thing sticks

And she wins by 5% in IN

Obama wins by 17 in NC and erases the entire deal.

[jackson_dem]

38. And then Clinton wins WV by 30+ and KY by 35+ while keeping O within single digits in OR

Or perhaps even winning Oregon. Let's see how things look in a month as momentum changes. The way things stand now she would win WV by 30+ (accounting for the undecideds), KY by 35+, and lose OR by 10.

[AllentownJake]

48. My Math with your optimistic predictions

PA 85 C O 73 +7% C
IN 40 C O 32 +7% C
WV 19 C O 9 + 30% C
NC 48 C O 67 + 20% O
KY 36 C O 15 + 40% C
OR 23 C O 29 + 10% O
MT 7 C O 9 + 10% O
SD 6 C O 9 + 10% O
PR 36 C O 19 + 30% C

He still will be 108 delegates ahead and need only need 36% of the Super Delegates.
Vs her needing 64%

[jackson_dem]

54. Yes. I think she is unlikely to win.

Where I disagree with Obama supporters here is that she still has a shot at winning. He is not the nominee. 64% is a tough sell but conceivable, especially if she surges into the national poll lead over Obama in all the polls and they are convinced he is unelectable (which is why if Obama consistently gets 23-36% of the white vote in most of these states that will hurt him significantly with the supers).

Keep in mind the Florida question. Seat Florida and she gains 38 delegates on Obama.

[AllentownJake]

72. We both know that isn't going to happen

Chairman Dean seats the majority of the credentials comittee and he has a point to make

[kmsarvis]

49. Do you honestly believe that.........

the supers will hand the nomination to Clinton if Obama has more pledged delegates,more popular votes and is still leading by 5-12 points in the national polls ?

[jackson_dem]

51. No. The last part is crucial. She needs to pass him in the national polls

That would undercut Obama's will of the people argument. That is possible since Obama's lead is built on the same thing her lead was built on. As soon as he started winning some people jumped on the bandwagon and the same people will switch back to Clinton if she starts winning.

[ericgtr]

31. Did anyone catch Nutter on Colbert the onther night? That guy is way uptight

[cliffordu]

43. I dunno - Lots of time for HILL to fuck up again....

[noel711]

47. Uh, Jackson, when was the last time you was in Philly..???

Are you basing your presupposition on polls?
You need to get around more...

My daughter works the Obama campaign in Philly,
and she tells us Obama owns Philly.
Half the city council supports Obama,
and just wait, as soon as the primary is over
Nutter is climbing on the Obama mobile.
He supports the clintons coz they campaigned
for his mayoral run. But he's no fool...

In Philly there is not a Hillary sign in sight.

In fact, she was on a bus, and a guy carrying a
Hillary sign tried to get on the bus,
and the bus driver said: NOt with that sign,
not with that sign."

And the drive drove off, and the whole bus cheered.

[jackson_dem]

65. 5-6 weeks ago. I agree, O will win Philly. Hill just needs to keep it fairly close

Like she did in Cleveland, Columbus and Dallas, Houston on 3/4. Obama always wins the cities. The key is what kind of margin does he get out of them and conversely can he keep her margins down everywhere else. If he gets 18% in an entire region of the state like this poll suggests he will lose.

[mudesi]

64. WOW! A whole 7?!

Did every Clinton supporter fail grade one mathematics?

[smiley_glad_hands]

68. She has to win by 65%, otherwise she is just wasting more time.

Surely her big money backers will realize this at some point.

[CreekDog]

70. but every other day you say that folks will only vote for their race

and now you are saying otherwise. :eyes:

[jackson_dem]

75. I never said that

[academico77]

74. Hillary's lead is shrinking in PA

It looks like you forgot the flurry of polls released in the last couple of days that show Obama closing in to the point that he's even up in one poll in PA.

[jackson_dem]

76. Nope. The last 2 weeks have shown almost no change in PA polls

Besides time is running out. Can he make up an average gap of 6 points in 6 days? He hasn't cut into her lead for 2 weeks.