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THE SHIFT IS ON: NEW 4-DAY TREND ACROSS PA POLLS shows 1) Clinton down 2) Undecideds up 3) Obama up

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AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-16-08 02:58 PM
Original message
THE SHIFT IS ON: NEW 4-DAY TREND ACROSS PA POLLS shows 1) Clinton down 2) Undecideds up 3) Obama up
The MOST RECENT PA polls (with all polling conducted on the 12th, 13th, 14th, and 15th) reveal an amazing shift. Each consecutive day, more PA voters have left Clinton, more have become undecided, and more have gone to Obama. This snapshot demonstrates what a shifting electorate should look like: the collective change of voters from pro-Hillary to not-Hillary/not-Obama to pro-Obama.

Disclaimer: conclusions from a meta-look like this across pollsters/methodologies is far from a sure thing.

With that caveat, here's how it looks (and these are the ONLY three PA polls we currently have for polling wholly within the 12-15th that I can locate):

12th-14: SUSA has it Clinton 54, Obama 40, Undecided 3
14th: Rasmussen has it Clinton 50 (down 4), Obama 41 (up 1), Undecided 9 (up 6)
14-15th: PPD has it Clinton 42 (down 8 more), Obama 45 (up 4 more), Undecided 13 (up another 4)

This four-day snapshot shows Clinton support moving to Undecided and to Obama. If Obama can capture only 38% of this growing batch of Undecideds as reported by PPP, he'll have a PA win wrapped.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/...
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phrigndumass Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-16-08 03:01 PM
Response to Original message
1. Can't wait to see how the debate tonight shakes those polls up
Good news!

:toast:
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AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-16-08 03:04 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. [clink]
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Eurobabe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-16-08 03:11 PM
Response to Original message
3. Obama by a hair. n/t
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AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-16-08 03:32 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. here's hoping.
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muryan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-16-08 04:13 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. As much as I'd like to see that
I'm not terribly optimistic. I am however extremely positive that any her margin of victory will be stamped out by a bigger margin in North Carolina.
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AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-17-08 09:22 AM
Response to Reply #7
8. last night's "debate" might actually help that trend to him
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Zachstar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-17-08 09:46 AM
Response to Reply #3
9. That would be wonderful but it is just so unlikely.
It will be more like Clinton by 3 and Obama with a net delegate gain.
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Bensthename Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-16-08 03:16 PM
Response to Original message
4. The tide is turning. And Hillary's time is running out.
She over played her false outrage. Woops. :popcorn:
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ORDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-16-08 04:12 PM
Response to Original message
6. kick
:kick:
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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-17-08 10:22 AM
Response to Original message
10. The Undecideds and PA regional weights (One pollster, PPP, 3-weeks, trends by region)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Clinton has been well-known since 1992 while Obama became a national figure in 2004. Therefore, Clinton can be considered to be the incumbent. Historically, challengers have won 75% or more of the undecided vote , especially when the incumbent is unpopular - and Clinton's negatives are much higher than Obama's. Assuming Obama wins 75% of the undecided vote in PA, the adjusted 5-poll average is 50-50%. If Obama continues to close the gap, he could win PA but only if the votes are fairly counted.

source: Fat Lady Rising: Why Obama Should Win PA (April 17)


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AnarchoFreeThinker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-17-08 10:27 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. excellent--thanks, tiptoe.
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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-17-08 10:32 AM
Response to Original message
12. K & R !
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