Obama Bests Clinton in Swing States

[sniffa]

Throughout this campaign cycle, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have argued over which candidate is more electable. Head-to-head poll averages from Real Clear Politics suggest that Obama may have a slightly better chance at beating John McCain in the general election than Clinton does. These national polls leave out an important consideration, though: voters in a handful of swing states really decide the general election, and those outcomes depend in large part on party turnout. Our analysis shows that Obama has outperformed Clinton in swing state primaries, which may indicate that he is better equipped to attract high Democratic turnout in those states.

Of the 12 states where George W. Bush and John Kerry came within 5 percentage points of each other in 2004’s popular vote, eight have so far held Democratic primaries (excluding Michigan and Florida, which held primaries that the Democratic Party will likely not recognize). Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have each won four of these states’ primary contests, with Obama averaging 54.9% of the popular vote cast between the two candidates, and Clinton taking, on average, 45.1%.

Combined, these states will control 70 electoral votes in the general election. Clinton’s win in Ohio, the largest of these states with 20 electoral votes, is largely balanced out by Obama’s strong performance in Minnesota and Wisconsin, each of which have 10 electoral votes. The total electoral vote count of the states that Obama won is 36, and the electoral vote count for Clinton is 24.

Primary results give some sense of which candidate excites the party base more, and it is reasonable to assume that a more exciting candidate might be able to attract a bigger Democratic turnout in the general election—a key concern for the party, but certainly not the only one. These numbers do not account for the popularity of the Republican candidate, John McCain, or the ability of either party to attract independent and crossover voters.

Turnout has been one of the Republican Party’s most potent weapons in the last two elections, with George W. Bush rallying a particularly faithful segment of his party to vote in large numbers. If Democrats hope to win in November, they will need a candidate who can excite just the sorts of voters who participate in primaries. In this aspect (one of many, of course), it appears that Barack Obama may be more successful than Hillary Clinton.

http://blogs.forbes.com/trailwatch/2008/04/obama-bests-cli.html

You don't say?

[Wes87]

1. Clinton Wins in PA, FL, and OH, Obama is lucky to win in Any. Your argument fails.

Those are THE most important states.

[AtomicKitten]

2. Your argument fails because she can't win the nomination.

Welcome back.

:hi:

[sniffa]

3. Now, now - just use the alert button

I just did.

[Wes87]

7. Alerting? For what? I didnt break any rules. I am simply disagreeing with you

Is that no longer allowed in the Democratic Party?

[sniffa]

9. No, I alerted so that hopefully

Your rapid post count is derailed before you get to start some awesome threads. :hi:

[Wes87]

4. Welcome Back? I was never here. And after Hill's big win in PA, IN, KY, and WV, the SDs...

will pick her for sure.

[AtomicKitten]

6. That's precious that you keep hope alive but his delegate count is insurmountable.

[sniffa]

10. I'm always impressed with the brand new DUers who have not been here before

know instantly on their first day the ins and outs of DU, how to recommend, and the shorthand anagrams: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5519062#5519155

[Wes87]

11. A lot of us are lurkers. I lurked on DU for quite awhile.

But I just had to come in and defend my girl Hillary from all the BS that goes on here.

[cali]

15. Nope. And desperate hillarian wishful thinking won't make it happen

sorry.

[Zhade]

30. Keep dreaming, it'll make rubbing her loss in your face even sweeter.

NT!

[Cha]

5. You have no argument 'cause you

didn't read the OP and aren't rebutting in facts ..just your little fantasy.

[sniffa]

8. I love how my argument fails

Since it's my piece. I write for Forbes now. :D

[mckeown1128]

31. Clinton loses MI, WA, OR, IA and all those swing states that Obama

wins... some polls show her losing PA. So stop spinning.

[sniffa]

12. I probably should have added something inlamatory to the OP

THIS IS PROOF THE HLLRY IS POISN IN TEH GE. THE SDS ARE GOIN TO SHOWZ HER TEH DOOR.

[Wes87]

13. Yea, I'm sure you would love to just put her back in the kitchen

I bet that's how you think.

[sniffa]

14. I see you've racked up your post count in record time

What are you waiting for? Go ahead start some awesome threads.

[Wes87]

16. No thanks. I havent found anything thread worthy yet.

[sniffa]

17. Don't let me deter you

Go for it. You know you want to. :thumbsup:

[sniffa]

21. I'm so proud of you

You finally fired off your first OP. :hug:

[Wes87]

22. Yep

[sniffa]

23. Indeed

[Wes87]

24. You should check your mail. You may find something waiting there.

[sniffa]

25. Um, please don't pm

:puke:

[MadBadger]

26. Another piehole I see

[sniffa]

27. Hmm, I don't think it's him

Check your pm. :hi:

[indimuse]

34. Welcome!

:hi:

[cali]

18. screw that

sniffa does NOT think like that. Shame on you for pulling the sexism card. :puke:

[sniffa]

20. It's ok Cali

Though, I greatly appreciate your defense of me. :hug:

Aside from this sub-thread..... as much as I appreciate the constant kicks, I'd love to see this thread actually get on the OP.

Obama tops Clinton in swing states. :D

[BenDavid]

19. here we are again, about to put a one trick pony with a lot of

baggage into a general election and you all that support this person will be back in here November 5th hollering, next time lets have a fighter. We will lose this election unless HRC is the nominee.

I agree that hrc could take pa. ohio and florida and all the blue states that kerry took last time and there you have the presidency.....but with obama you lose florida, ohio and pa. Looks like you all that go with obama will go to bed early on November 4th when all the news channels project that McCain takes Pa.....If that happens the dems lose out again.....

[sniffa]

28. He also loses CA, MA, NY & NJ

[Zhade]

32. clinton's a proven liar whom TWO-THIRDS OF AMERICANS distrust.

And you think she could WIN?

What's it feel like to be so delusional?

[last_texas_dem]

33. But why would you care if McCain prevails over Obama?

After all, you've threatened to bail on the party and vote for McSame if Obama is our nominee.

[sniffa]

29. Achoo!!