Professional Analysis of Clinton's ARG 20 point "lead" (Hint: It's probably BS)

[Dbdmjs1022]

"The poll, which topped the Drudge Report on Monday afternoon (”shock poll”), was issued by American Research Group Inc. (ARG). In the poll, conducted on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, 57% of likely Democratic voters said they were supporting Sen. Clinton, compared with 37% for Sen. Obama. Just last week, each candidate received 45% in an ARG poll in the state. Other recent polls generally show a much smaller Clinton lead.

But there are reasons to question ARG polling numbers. In a polling report card of 2008 primary accuracy issued by a rival survey company, ARG ranked in the bottom half of more than three dozen polling firms, among 2008 primaries through late February. It also ranked near the bottom in another ranking of pollster accuracy at fivethirtyeight.com, a Web site that tracks the Electoral College. And, as I wrote last month, the widely tracked polling averages at the political Web site Real Clear Politics don’t include ARG numbers, because of concerns about transparency. Like they’ve been in Pennsylvania, ARG polls also were volatile in previous primaries, notably in Wisconsin, which saw a 16-point swing in just two days."

"Other pollsters’ numbers disagree with ARG’s. Clay Richards, who runs the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute’s Pennsylvania poll, said he doesn’t expect his poll that will be published Tuesday to show much difference from the last one, which had a Clinton lead of six points. “I don’t see that much movement in Pennsylvania myself,” Mr. Richards said by phone from Harrisburg on Monday. He declined to comment specifically on his rival’s contradictory numbers."

"Both pollsters agreed that Sen. Obama hasn’t been hurt much by his remarks about small-town Pennsylvania voters last week. Mr. Bennett said few respondents mentioned them. Mr. Richards said, “My hunch is won’t make much of a difference because most voters who might feel insulted by his comments were already Clinton voters or republicans who weren’t going to vote for him, anyway.”

http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/is-clintons-pennsylvania-lead-really-20-points-319/

[GarbagemanLB]

1. WOW. Quinnipiac doesn't expect a radical change in tomorrow's PA poll! Awesome!

[Dbdmjs1022]

2. I gave a big sigh of relief after reading this.

[Abacus]

7. I'd rather everyone think he's 20 points down

heading into the primary.

[quantass]

19. Same here!

[MadBadger]

3. Good to hear that info from the Q-Poll guy.

Also, the chair of the MOntgomery country Dem Party in PA, who is a Clinton supporter said he sees this having no effect in his county really. Its the small towns that this could effect where Obama wasnt too popular already.

[SoCalDem]

4. Arg poll.. 48% prefer "Yo-ho-ho" .. 52% "prefer shiver me timbers"

[Dbdmjs1022]

6. LOL!

[WillyT]

8. ROFLMAO !!!

Damn... now I gotta go to the bar.

:evilgrin:

[Innocent Smith]

12. I prefer RUM

I guess I just don't fit in. :)

[SoCalDem]

14. you're an elitist!

:rofl:

[Innocent Smith]

18. Did I say rum?

I meant gum.

As in bubble gum.

[Bigleaf]

5. K&R. It's obvious the ARG poll is utter Bullshit.

[bluestateguy]

9. ARG's history of fuckups

On election eve in 2000, ARG had a poll showing Gore leading Bush in New Hampshire by 10 points.

Bush won New Hampshire by 1 point.

ARG should do the honorable thing and go out of business.

[depakid]

10. And how is this load of sopishitry from the Wall Street Journal "professional?"

Does it analyze any methodologies? or does it simply reinforce Americans' willingness to be manipulated by all these dubious numbers?

[yellowcanine]

11. Funny. I seem to remember the Clinton supporters really trashing ARG last week.

When they said it was 45/45. Suddenly ARG is being bandied about as evidence that Hillary has rebounded and Obama is sinking. Did they gain reliability in one week?

[Symarip]

13. Let them have it.

Keep the expectations low.

[yellowcanine]

15. Turnout is going to be the decider in PA. And that is bad news for Clinton, imo.

Her attacks on Obama - particularly if she makes the mistake of making them part of the debate - are not going to help with turnout of her supporters but it just might make Obama supporters more motivated to turn out. She should not have been so out front about attacking Obama on this - should have left it to surrogates. And the gun pandering was just embarrassing. I think if Clinton wins it will be a narrow win and Obama will likely win just as many delegates (or even more), a Pyrrhic victory at best, particularly considering that her national stock appears to have not been helped (and maybe hurt with superdelegates) at all from this.

[sniffa]

16. No, the poll is right

Clinton is going to win by at least 20 points.

[CakeGrrl]

17. It's good to hear the actual pollsters explain things with such an outlier

And the debate will probably help him more.