HEY Guess What? I know how the Superdelegates are gonna vote!

[FlyingSquirrel]

This you gotta see?

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In the states where there was a virtual tie (MO, NV, NH, TX) the Supers who have declared so far have pretty much split down the middle (20 for Obama, 19 for Hillary)

In Arkansas and New York, Clinton took all but one Super.
In Illinois, Obama took all the Supers.

In the other states where Clinton won, she took 63.6% of the Supers who've declared from those states.
In the other states where Obama won, he took 61.0% of the Supers who've declared from those states.

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Let's give Hillary the benefit of the doubt and say these patterns continue, and Obama doesn't get any kind of boost at all from this point on.

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12 more Supers for Clinton, 12 for Obama in MO, NV, NH, TX

5 more Supers in AR and NY go to Clinton.
47 more Supers in other states Hillary won go to her, vs 26 for Obama.

3 more Supers in IL go to Obama.
63 more Supers in other states Obama won go to him, vs 39 for Hillary.

Total: 104 Obama, 103 Clinton

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Now let's say Hillary wins PA, IN, KY, WV, PR (just for the sake of argument)

15 remaining Supers in those states go to Clinton, vs 9 for Obama.

And let's say Obama wins NC, MT, OR, SD, GU

21 remaining Supers in those states go to Obama, vs 12 for Clinton.

Grand Total: 134 Obama, 130 Clinton

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And then of course there'll be a bunch of add-ons from who knows where.

My basic point is, the remaining Superdelegates are not gonna do anything radical. If Clinton were to end up winning the overall popular vote, that might count for something in some Supers' eyes, but would be more than offset by those who are fixed on the pledged delegate count.

In reality, the state they're from will probably be the factor you can most count on if you're wanting to guess-timate what they'll do. So really, the very best Hillary is likely to do is end up with a tie with Obama for the remaining Superdelegates.

Might as well include that in your calculations for what she'll need to do in the remaining states.

[FlyingSquirrel]

1. .

[grantcart]

2. add ons

State, # of UnpledgedAdd-Ons, State Convention Date Method of Selection / Add-ons (Green Papers)

Oklahoma 1 2/23/2008 Reggie Whitten selected during the Party State Convention.

Alabama 1 3/1/2008 Stewart Burkhalter selected during the State Democratic Executive Committee meeting.

Arkansas 1 3/8/2008 Mark Wilcox selected during the State Convention by a vote of the delegates.

Tennessee 2 3/15/2008 Vicki Harwell and Jerry Lee selected by the State Executive Committee.

Connecticut 1 3/26/2008 Selected during the Democratic State Central Committee meeting.

District of Columbia 2 4/3/2008 Selected by the DC Democratic State Committee. At least one of these delegates shall be a "Shadow"
Representative, if a Democrat.

Delaware 1 4/5/2008 Selected during the State Convention by a committee of district-level delegates.

Florida 0/3 4/5/2008 Selected by the Florida Democratic Party State Executive Committee.

Missouri 2 4/5/2008 Selected by the Democratic State Committee (Section IX.A. of the 3/2007 plan states that the add-on delegate is
selected on 5 4/while Section IX.E. says the delegate is selected on 10 May.)

North Dakota 1 4/6/2008 Selected at the State Convention by a vote of all the caucuses.

New Jersey 2 4/17/2008 Elected by a vote, consisting of a quorum of 40% of the Members of the New Jersey Democratic State Committee.

Arizona 1 4/19/2008 Selected during the State Convention.

New Hampshire 1 4/26/2008 Selected by open ballot, majority vote, by a committee of district-level delegates.

New Mexico 1 4/26/2008 Selected by the State Party Central Committee.

Maryland 2 5/1/2008 Selected at the State Democratic Central Committee meeting.

New York 4 5/1/2008 Selected during the State Democratic Executive Committee

Louisiana 1 5/3/2008 Selected by the Democratic State Central Committee).

South Carolina 1 5/3/2008 Elected during the State Convention

Illinois 3 5/5/2008 Selected during the State Convention

Utah 1 5/9/2008 Elected by a quorum of district level delegates during the State Convention

Massachusetts 2 5/10/2008 Elected by the State Party Committee

Ohio 2 5/10/2008 Selected by the State Executive Committee

Colorado 1 5/17/2008 Selected during the State Convention

Kansas 1 5/17/2008 Selected during the State Convention

Michigan 0/2 5/17/2008 Selected by the State Central Committee.

Nevada 1 5/17/2008 Selected by the state convention as a whole

California 5 5/18/2008 Selected during the Delegation Meeting

Alaska 1 5/23/2008 Selected at the state convention

Georgia 2 5/24/2008 Selected during the State Committee Meeting

Wyoming 1 5/24/2008 Selected during the State Convention

Hawaii 1 5/25/2008 Selected by the State Party Committee

Maine 1 5/31/2008 Selected during the State Convention

Mississippi 1 5/31/2008 Selected by the State Convention

Kentucky 1 6/7/2008 Nominated by the Chair and selected during the State Convention

Minnesota 2 6/7/2008 Elected during the State Convention

Pennsylvania 3 6/7/2008 Selected by the Pennsylvania State Democratic Committee

Texas 3 6/7/2008 Elected at the state convention

Vermont 1 6/7/2008 Selected by a quorum of elected district level delegates

Montana 1 6/8/2008 Selected during the State Convention

Wisconsin 2 6/13/2008 Just before the Convention meets, the Administrative Committee of the Wisconsin Democratic Party chooses these delegates

Idaho 1 6/14/2008 Nominated by State Chair and selected by State Convention Delegates

Iowa 1 6/14/2008 Selected at the state convention

Virginia 2 6/14/2008 Elected at the State Convention

West Virginia 1 6/14/2008 Selected by the State Democratic Executive Committee

Washington 2 6/15/2008 Nominated by the State Democratic Chair and selected during the State Convention

Rhode Island 1 6/19/2008 Selected by the State Committee

Indiana 1 6/21/2008 Selected by the district-level delegates at the State Convention

North Carolina 2 6/21/2008 Selected during the State Convention

Oregon 1 6/21/2008 Elected by the State Convention

Puerto Rico 1 6/21/2008 Selected during the Democratic Assembly

South Dakota 1 6/21/2008 Selected during the State Party Central Committee meeting

Nebraska 1 6/21/2008 Selected by the State Convention

Total 76/81 -- --


And here is the state convention schedule

a) Washington . . . State Convention 5/17
b) Alaska . . . . . . .State 5/24
c) Am Samoa . . . . .?
d) Colorado . . . . . .State 5/17
e) Idaho . . . . . . . . .State 6/14
f) Kansas . .District 4/12 . . . .State 5/17
g) Minnesota . . .District 5/17 . .State 6/6
h) N Dakota . . . District May State April
i) Nebraska . . . . . .County June State 6/28
j) Washington . . . County 4/19 Dist 5/17 State 6/15
k) Maine . . . . . . .State 5/31
l) Hawaii . . . . . . State 5/25
m) Texas . . . . . . State 6/6

[FlyingSquirrel]

11. Thanks for the info

In OP scenario, with this added info, we'd get the following:

Obama 31, Clinton 66 in states she's won
Obama 88, Clinton 52 in states he's won
Obama 16, Clinton 15 in states they (approximately) tied

Subtotal: Obama 135, Clinton 133

Obama 11, Clinton 20 in states Clinton may win
Obama 23, Clinton 14 in states Obama may win

Grand total: Obama 169, Clinton 167

That's assuming the percentages hold up and there's not a big move to either candidate. Somehow that adds up to 336 instaed of 324 but oh well.

I personally think since it's been such a close, hard-fought race we'll see the same approximate percentages, somewhere between 60-65% of Supers voting for the candidate who won their state, until there's a clear winner after which most will change their vote to the winner for party unity. But if anything, it's more likely that there'd be a landslide move towards Obama since he's won the most delegates and states (plus the fact that it's been moving steadily his way for quite awhile).

[grantcart]

3. Since Feb 5th 80% of the SDs have gone for Obama

There are also a number of SDs that have joined Pelosi and will vote for the candidate with the most pledged candidates.

There are a number of Clinton SDs that have indicated that they are wavering.

There are a number of Carter SDs that have played it cute indicating that they are voting for Obama but cannot be counted because they don't say it explicitly.


There is also a strong rumor that there are 30-40 SDs that are holding back for a decisive Obama win in a Clinton state. They would have come out if Obama had won Texas. Likely to come out if he wins PA.

[HooptieWagon]

4. Don't forget the 75 SDs Dean gets to appoint...

and I don't think he's going to be real inclined to appoint SDs that are gonna vote for Tonya....

[PBS Poll-435]

5. Who is Tonya?

There is only 1 woman running for President in the Democratic Party. Her name is Hillary Clinton.

[FlyingSquirrel]

6. I think Tonya's the one that's trying to beat Barry. nt

[PBS Poll-435]

8. One Slight Difference...

Hillary Clinton never called herself Tonya. It wasn't in her yearbook either.

[PBS Poll-435]

7. .

:-)

[Ilithiad]

9. Radical

What is so radical about choosing the nominee who they think will have the best chance of beating McSame in November...which I doubt is OBama

[PBS Poll-435]

10. Well...

First of all, we are Democrats! Which means winning isn't everything. Look at the 20th century. We had three Democrats re-elected to a second term. That's it. Three. And two were during the World Wars...

[FlyingSquirrel]

12. Ok, make that "Radically different"

Basically I'm saying, birds of a feather flock together. Or, people's loyalties, inclinations, whatever lie more with the state they live in than anything else.

It's been a pretty clear trend IMO that in states clearly won by one candidate or the other, (not counting their home states), while there are some obvious cases where one candidate or the other for whatever reason gets more or fewer superdelegates than you'd think they would have gotten in that particular state, overall they're getting between 60-65% of the supers in the states they win.

Since it's such a close race and each individual superdelegate has their own opinion regarding who's "most electable", I'm thinking we'll see this pattern remain fairly steady until we have a nominee.