PA PPP Poll: Clinton 46, Obama 43....Correction from the last poll

[MadBadger]

I know the Clinton supporters will look at this as a trend, but I see this as a slight correction from the last poll in which they saw a 28 point switch or so within the span of a week. He was never up 2 from a week ago, and this poll actually makes more sense and we'll see what it says going forward.


Clinton holds small lead in Pennsylvania
Raleigh, N.C. – Hillary Clinton has taken back a small lead over Barack Obama in
Pennsylvania, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling.
Clinton has a 46-43 advantage in the state after trailing Obama by two points in PPP’s
poll last week.

Clinton’s improvement since last week comes almost entirely from her core
demographics. Her lead among women improved from 10 points to 16, her lead among
white voters went from 11 to 17, and her lead with senior citizens showed a gain from 16
to 21.

“Hillary Clinton’s made a small rebound in the last week to get the lead back,” said Dean
Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But this does seem to be confirmation that
it’s a pretty tight race in Pennsylvania and could go either way depending on what the
campaigns do over the next two weeks.”

The survey also found that 37% of likely voters are concerned that the drawn out primary
will hurt Democratic prospects of winning in the fall. Obama has a 47-41 lead with those
voters. Clinton is leading 50-40 among the 52% of respondents who are not worried the
contest continuing will impede the chances of defeating John McCain.

Obama has a 53-35 advantage in the Philadelphia metro area, while Clinton leads every
other region of the state.

PPP surveyed 1124 likely Democratic primary voters on April 7th and 8th. The survey’s
margin of error is +/- 2.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_040908.pdf

[NightWatcher]

1. It appears that Hillary is going to miss her 68% goal that she needs

I wonder how long before even some of her supporters realize that it is a lost cause.

[polichick]

2. And this does not factor in new voters...

Since polling involves the use of old voter lists. Obama could win in PA with all the new and switch voters we've registered!

[book_worm]

3. I'll take it. It would seem that SUSA poll is either an outlier or the only one

which may be correct and time will tell.

[MadBadger]

6. SUSA had Obama losing ground in the black community

Michael Crowley found that that represented about 3-4% of the 6 point drop. So that explains some of it. We know hell get like 86% of the black vote, and not the 74-24 split they have.

[democrattotheend]

12. Not necessarily. We can't take black voters for granted.

Nutter might help Clinton do a little better with black voters in Philly than she has done in other places.

[MadBadger]

13. Nah, I dont see it. I dont see Nutter helping at all.

[MattNC]

4. great news

even if it is a drop from last week. That's .1 outside the MOE. And, I'd be surprised if he only ends up with 74% of the AA vote as the polling details indicate.

[Bullet1987]

5. It doesn't matter...this simply means Clintons core group MAY be coming back

but not nearly enough to give her a gashing win she needs.

[GrandmaJones7]

7. Are you banking on DISENFRANCHISING Florida?

-if so, you might be right about Obama winning.

But he will be as illegitimate as bush was after he stole the election in 2000! sad sad sad.

[SoCalDem]

9. Obama does not "need" Florida..HRH does

:)

[MadBadger]

10. I'm Counting on DISENFRANCHISING Florida.

I love to DISENFRANCHISE FLORIDA!

[mckeown1128]

11. How is not counting the votes from FL's fake primary disenfranchisement.

The results from FL's fake primary do not represent their voters will. People have to know that the election will count for delegates before they walk into the booth... not a few months after the election.

[MadBadger]

8. Nah, I think some of those people never left

I just dont believe he was up 2 last week. Her up 3 to me doesnt mean her core is coming home and that she is gaining, but instead she already had a lot of those people, and may be still losing some now.