Is Virginia a future swing state?

[mot78]

Northern VA is pretty Liberal, and has elected Jim Moran. VA as a whole also elected Mark Warner. Plus, VA could be in play this election. Even if it isn't, it could be in 2008 or 2012.

[JI7]

1. Kerry is trying to make it a swing state

if he can't win this time. he will probably at least make it more of a swing state rather than solid gop in the future. it takes time, but it will be worth it.

[GOPBasher]

2. According to the authors of "The Emerging Democratic Majority,"

it will be a swing state soon. It's undergoing the demographic changes that will make it easier for Dems to win. I love that book; it renewed my optimism. :)

[minkyboodle]

3. I hope so

unfortunately there is a great disconnect between the NOVA DC Metro area and the rest of the state. My gut tells me that Kerry should concentrate more on other more viable swing states this election although with a prez like Bush you never know what can happen. It has sucked for the democratic VA voters in recent times, our presidential votes have been basically null and void. Here's hoping for a change!

[Aspe4]

4. i lived in Southern Virginia

i'm from southern va, martinsville to be exact, and i currently live in MD in the Washington, DC area. southern va, which is Bush contry, is a totally different place from northern. it would be nice if it were a swing state. but who knows, BushCo is so disgusting that maybe people will be so turned off as to vote against him.

[Zynx]

5. It is rapidly becoming one.

The margins are swinging our way over time and soon will be as much of a swing state as Missouri or Ohio.

[NewJerseyDem]

6. Not yet

Virginia has shown some signs of moving to the left in recent years. Bush won the state in 2000, but it was only by 8 percentage points. I expect that in maybe a decade or so this may very well be one of the biggest swing states but currently it leans to the republicans comfortably.

[Eurobabe]

7. Charlottesville city is heavy dem

but once you cross the mountains into the Valley west of here, Bu$h stickers are rampant. I get annoyed when I go over there. Yesterday we drove back from Richmond to Crozet and saw at least 8 anti-BU$H bumper stickers, it made us feel good!

Unfortunately I feel in my heart that VA will go for Bu$h, we aren't quite there yet.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

8. 8-12 years

The IT/Govt contract corridor is attracting a ton of educated transplants and their families. A lot of them are actually still conservative (gotta grease the wheels of Raytheon, LockMar, etc...) but the next generation is going to look demographically like CT.

This is a coming blue state -- NC will come after it (another 8-12 years afterwards).

[ButterflyBlood]

9. yes

2000 will be the last election that the Republican wins Fairfax county. The rest of the northern part is beginning to follow, and the Virginia Beach area is slowly slipping out of their hands.

[AP]

10. Trending Dem comment: have you noticed how Republicans stay

in power in Dem states? By being really moderate-appearing, and really covering up the favors they do for big business -- eg, Pataki and Arnold.

I wonder when national republicans are going to realize they have to do that.

Also, why do democrats let moderate-seemingn Republicans off the hook when they hear a few sweet words about abortion rights or whatever single issue a bunch of liberals vote on?

Why don't we demand that they're moderate on the big issues, like the tax code and corporate welfare and the general transfer of power to a few very wealth corporations?

[ACK]

11. Depends on a huge number of factors

Now Northern VA leans more Dem but some of the wealthiest suburbs of course are still very Repuke.

We will never a large hunk of the Southern VA vote. Rednecks are not going to vote Dem. It just ain't going to happen.

However, the good old boy attitude is not as pronounced in some of the other areas of the state.

It will be closer in VA than a lot of people think right now.

With the right campaigns the Mike Warner phenom can help to move the state in a more Dem friendly mode.

You have to understand just like in many Southern border states how to strike a real populist tone in order to maximum the votes and reach out to the general populace.