Specter v. Hoeffel: Polls show 52-40

[srpantalonas]

"I don't think the numbers will be that bad--I think it will be closer, maybe 51-47. But currently I see Specter winning. Here's why. "

--charlie crystle (former democratic candidate for senate in pa)


http://www.charliecrystle.com/


Let me know what you think. I think he can turn it around, but this is a big, expensive state...

[TSIAS]

1. I don't know PA politics

However, I do know that conservatives aren't pleased with Specter. A conservative revolt against him would make it much easier for Hoeffel to contend.

This is one of those politcal issues that gets debated time and again at DU. Those in the mainstream GOP felt that Toomey would be unelectable in the General. We see this same argument at work in other races.

I can't say I'm overly optimistic. It's so very hard to beat an incumbent, especially one with 4 terms under his belt. If the DSCC and Hoeffel show that this race is truly contested, I'll surely chip in a few bucks for the cause.

[Dogmudgeon]

3. The PA GOP did revolt. Specter won.

They will promote Arlen. Even Toomey will work for him, with a smile on his face and a song on his lips -- and he's been doing so for a few weeks now.

Arlen Specter is a fuggin' machine. Our luck is that for a Republican, he's not a complete neo-Con dictator-manqué like Blow-Dried Ricky (Santor(ect)um) is. He brings pork home by the barrel, and jobs thereby.

Joe Hoeffel left a no-work position as a Representative to slay this Goliath. You gotta admire the man's brass.

--bkl

[Dogmudgeon]

2. This is my dog in the fight

And Joe Hoeffel repped my district.

Joe is a good guy, but if he wants to win the Keystone State, he's going to have to set the Pennsylvania Democrats on fire. He's got the Deaniacs, he's got the party faithful, he's got the "cultural creatives" and he's got the Jewish folks -- and that's it.

Joe Hoeffel is a keenly analytical, intelligent, committed administrator. In other words, he's a wonk. He needs to seriously get his groove on and let his love light shine, or he's going to be working as a "consultant" for a couple of years.

--bkl
Arf.

[Democat]

4. The far right wing attack on Specter makes him look more moderate

Which might help him with the middle.

[DaveSZ]

5. Here's how Hoeffel can win:

The Fundies field a Senate candidate on the Constitution Party ticket, and he pulls the conservative vote away from Specter.

If we prop up the Fundie candidate, we may be able to beat Spec.

[mrgorth]

6. He needs to call the sports stations

Specter is on 610AM all the time sounding like a normal guy. I think Hoeffel should call these type of stations in an effort to sound as blue collar as possible.