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Federal Review Composite Poll (5/25): Kerry Takes The Lead 284-254!

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phillybri Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 07:58 AM
Original message
Federal Review Composite Poll (5/25): Kerry Takes The Lead 284-254!
http://www.federalreview.com/compositepoll.htm



KERRY TAKES THE LEAD
Bush 46.86% - 254 | Kerry 49.24% - 284
May 25, 2004

Despite a slightly smaller margin of 2.38% in favor of Kerry, compared to last weeks 2.38%, Bush falls behind in the electoral vote after losing Pennsylvania. Two recent polls show Kerry with leads of 5 and 6 in Pennsylvania, returning that state to blue. Pennsylvania now Leans Kerry, with a lead of 1.17% of the two-party vote. This is consistent with historical Pennsylvania trends. Pennsylvania has voted more heavily Democrat than the nation as a whole every year since 1960. Sure, Ronald Reagan won Pennsylvania in 1980 and 1984, but each time by a smaller margin than the national popular vote. What does this tell us? If this election is as close as 2000 and Pennsylvania remains consistent with its past, Kerry will win its electoral votes. Keep in mind, of course, that past performance is not indicative of future results.

Despite Pennsylvanias tendency to be more Democratic than the nation, the trend may be in the Republicans favor. In 1984, Reagan won the state by a margin of 7.35%. But he won the national popular vote by 18.22%. Thus, Pennsylvania in 1984 was 10.87% more Democratic in 1984 than the nation as a whole. In 1988, it was only 5.42% more Democratic, and in 1992, 3.46%; 1996, 0.68%. The trend since 1984 has been in favor of the Republicans. However, in 2000, Gore won Pennsylvania by 4.17%, which was a win of 3.65% of greater than the national popular vote. The overall trend since 1984 might favor the Republicans, but the 2000 results suggests that Pennsylvania may have turned around.

Thats why they call it a Battleground State.

<more>
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SEpatriot Donating Member (369 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 08:10 AM
Response to Original message
1. Great map!
The most encouraging trends here are WV, VA, NC, TN and GA. WV and VA along with PA can be won, and I think at least PA and WV will be won by Kerry. The fact that NC, TN and GA are not strong for Bush is a real problem. A heavy black turnout in GA and swing voting in either NC or TN could turn any one of those states around - only a little smart campaigning could force Bush to spend time there, which his people don't want to have to do.

Kerry can also probably easily pick off Nevada and maybe even Arizona. Kerry will own the entire Eastern seaboard, possibly all the way down to SC, the entire West Coast and all the Great Lakes states (save Indiana)
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dusty64 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 08:15 AM
Response to Original message
2. The site claims
PA as a Kerry gain yet still shows a rethug lean.
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phillybri Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 08:37 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. He realized his mistake...
He'll be turning PA to light blue...Good eye!
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ronnykmarshall Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 02:14 PM
Response to Reply #3
17. I think Nevada will go blue
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beyurslf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 09:05 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. There is a note on the site correcting it. PA should be light blue.
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mrgorth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 09:48 AM
Response to Original message
5. Not good enough
Still way too much pink. We need NV, NM, AR, FL and WV. THEN I'll be happy.
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beyurslf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 09:50 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. I'll rest when I see KS turning light blue. I think I havemy work cut out
for me.
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phillybri Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 09:51 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. Best of luck...
If Edwards grabs the VP slot, I'll have a blast trying to turn NC blue...
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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 11:17 AM
Response to Reply #5
11. New Nexico is light blue
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cindyw Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 10:19 AM
Response to Original message
8. Anyone noticing that there is only one stronghold for Dems.
Bush has a whole swatch in dark red and according to this map Kerry's advantage is only for sure in one state. So by that logic, he could lose all but one state.
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phillybri Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 11:06 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. I wouldn't worry about that...
Edited on Tue May-25-04 11:15 AM by phillybri
No one can tell me California, Minnesota, and Illinois aren't Dem locks...
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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 11:15 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. With the exception of Texas
those states have few electoral votes.
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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 11:17 AM
Response to Original message
12. Does that 284 include PA?
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phillybri Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 12:03 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. It does include PA, he just forgot to change the color...
n/t
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TexasSissy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 12:21 PM
Response to Original message
14. Bush has Florida? What a disappointment.
Has Kerry hit the campaign trail there?
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phillybri Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 01:40 PM
Response to Reply #14
15. He has...he campaigned w/ Nelson and Graham...
Some polls have him leading there...Too close to call...
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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 01:59 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. Kerry actually is tied or has a lead within the margin of error
in recent Florida polls.
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dusty64 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 10:45 PM
Response to Original message
18. OK, PA has been fixed.
The way I see it the 3 of the 4 possible shaky states on our side must be won and I believe that will happen. Kerry MUST win 3 of the 5 BIG swing states; Ohio, PA, Michigan, Missouri, and Florida. If he wins 3 of four of the Dem swing states and JUST picks up Ohio and New Hampshire he wins in almost every scenario (except the loss of Wisconsin).

There are (I believe) 4 VERY shaky red states; NH, NV, Arizona, and Arkansas. Also possibly Louisiana, and West Virginia, some feel Tennesee . I really think a win is gonna happen barring some EXTREMELY dirty tricks from our regime, which is also likely. Terra attack, massive vote rigging, just to name a few. They need to accept this reality and find a way to keep it from happening. Have I forgotten anything?
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jsw_81 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-25-04 11:16 PM
Response to Original message
19. Put Clark on the ticket and we'll have AR and MO, too
That will make it a landslide.
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dusty64 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-26-04 07:19 AM
Response to Original message
20. One more
:kick: before I leave for the daily grind.
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