Federal Review Composite Poll (5/25): Kerry Takes The Lead 284-254!

[phillybri]

http://www.federalreview.com/compositepoll.htm



KERRY TAKES THE LEAD
Bush 46.86% - 254 | Kerry 49.24% - 284
May 25, 2004

Despite a slightly smaller margin of 2.38% in favor of Kerry, compared to last week’s 2.38%, Bush falls behind in the electoral vote after losing Pennsylvania. Two recent polls show Kerry with leads of 5 and 6 in Pennsylvania, returning that state to blue. Pennsylvania now Leans Kerry, with a lead of 1.17% of the two-party vote. This is consistent with historical Pennsylvania trends. Pennsylvania has voted more heavily Democrat than the nation as a whole every year since 1960. Sure, Ronald Reagan won Pennsylvania in 1980 and 1984, but each time by a smaller margin than the national popular vote. What does this tell us? If this election is as close as 2000 and Pennsylvania remains consistent with its past, Kerry will win its electoral votes. Keep in mind, of course, that past performance is not indicative of future results.

Despite Pennsylvania’s tendency to be more Democratic than the nation, the trend may be in the Republican’s favor. In 1984, Reagan won the state by a margin of 7.35%. But he won the national popular vote by 18.22%. Thus, Pennsylvania in 1984 was 10.87% more Democratic in 1984 than the nation as a whole. In 1988, it was only 5.42% more Democratic, and in 1992, 3.46%; 1996, 0.68%. The trend since 1984 has been in favor of the Republicans. However, in 2000, Gore won Pennsylvania by 4.17%, which was a win of 3.65% of greater than the national popular vote. The overall trend since 1984 might favor the Republicans, but the 2000 results suggests that Pennsylvania may have turned around.

That’s why they call it a Battleground State.

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[SEpatriot]

1. Great map!

The most encouraging trends here are WV, VA, NC, TN and GA. WV and VA along with PA can be won, and I think at least PA and WV will be won by Kerry. The fact that NC, TN and GA are not strong for Bush is a real problem. A heavy black turnout in GA and swing voting in either NC or TN could turn any one of those states around - only a little smart campaigning could force Bush to spend time there, which his people don't want to have to do.

Kerry can also probably easily pick off Nevada and maybe even Arizona. Kerry will own the entire Eastern seaboard, possibly all the way down to SC, the entire West Coast and all the Great Lakes states (save Indiana)

[dusty64]

2. The site claims

PA as a Kerry gain yet still shows a rethug lean.

[phillybri]

3. He realized his mistake...

He'll be turning PA to light blue...Good eye!

[ronnykmarshall]

17. I think Nevada will go blue

[beyurslf]

4. There is a note on the site correcting it. PA should be light blue.

[mrgorth]

5. Not good enough

Still way too much pink. We need NV, NM, AR, FL and WV. THEN I'll be happy.

[beyurslf]

6. I'll rest when I see KS turning light blue. I think I havemy work cut out

for me.

[phillybri]

7. Best of luck...

If Edwards grabs the VP slot, I'll have a blast trying to turn NC blue...

[lancdem]

11. New Nexico is light blue

[cindyw]

8. Anyone noticing that there is only one stronghold for Dems.

Bush has a whole swatch in dark red and according to this map Kerry's advantage is only for sure in one state. So by that logic, he could lose all but one state.

[phillybri]

9. I wouldn't worry about that...

No one can tell me California, Minnesota, and Illinois aren't Dem locks...

[lancdem]

10. With the exception of Texas

those states have few electoral votes.

[lancdem]

12. Does that 284 include PA?

[phillybri]

13. It does include PA, he just forgot to change the color...

n/t

[TexasSissy]

14. Bush has Florida? What a disappointment.

Has Kerry hit the campaign trail there?

[phillybri]

15. He has...he campaigned w/ Nelson and Graham...

Some polls have him leading there...Too close to call...

[lancdem]

16. Kerry actually is tied or has a lead within the margin of error

in recent Florida polls.

[dusty64]

18. OK, PA has been fixed.

The way I see it the 3 of the 4 possible shaky states on our side must be won and I believe that will happen. Kerry MUST win 3 of the 5 BIG swing states; Ohio, PA, Michigan, Missouri, and Florida. If he wins 3 of four of the Dem swing states and JUST picks up Ohio and New Hampshire he wins in almost every scenario (except the loss of Wisconsin).

There are (I believe) 4 VERY shaky red states; NH, NV, Arizona, and Arkansas. Also possibly Louisiana, and West Virginia, some feel Tennesee . I really think a win is gonna happen barring some EXTREMELY dirty tricks from our regime, which is also likely. Terra attack, massive vote rigging, just to name a few. They need to accept this reality and find a way to keep it from happening. Have I forgotten anything?

[jsw_81]

19. Put Clark on the ticket and we'll have AR and MO, too

That will make it a landslide.

[dusty64]

20. One more

before I leave for the daily grind.