Once-solid Republican Southwest in play for presidential election

[papau]

http://www.realcities.com/mld/krwashington/8715660.htm

Once-solid Republican Southwest in play for presidential election

By Steven Thomma Knight Ridder Newspapers



PHOENIX - <snip>The most dramatic example of how much the Southwestern political landscape is changing is Arizona, home of the late Barry Goldwater - senator, one-time presidential candidate and founder of the modern conservative movement. Arizona isn't Goldwater's state anymore, in size or in political temperament.


Bill Clinton carried it in 1996, the first Democrat to do so since Harry Truman in 1948. Democrat Al Gore came within 6 percentage points of carrying the state in 2000 without spending a day there. Democrat Janet Napolitano won the governor's office in 2002. Sensing the chance for an upset, Democrat John Kerry is spending time and money in the state. President Bush is fighting to defend it.


If Bush and Kerry meet in Arizona for their final debate this fall, as proposed by an independent commission, it could be a make-or-break showdown in a make-or-break state. <snip>


Polls show the two major candidates statistically tied, suggesting that Kerry could win. He's also competing in New Mexico, which Gore won in 2000 by 366 votes, and is airing TV ads in Colorado and Nevada, both of which Bush carried in 2000. <snip>

[WI_DEM]

1. another reason why Bill Richardson would be a good choice for VP

he would deliver his homestate of New Mexico without a problem and would no doubt have a great deal of influence in Arizona especially since the state has a huge latino population.

[NMDemDist2]

5. I saw Ricardson at a Dem luncheon and was not impressed

he is a good guy, but not sure he's ready for a national stage yet

[Padraig18]

2. Kerry's hold on the 'blue' states is much firmer than Bush's on the 'red'

Bush is extremely vulnerable, as the article shows.

[surfermaw]

3. What do you know

This old democrat, who couldn't bring herself to vote for Johnson...Voted for her second Republican ever ...Barry Goldwater, because he said keep Americas son's home,if they come across the pond to attack us blow them back....think he had something there.

[NMDemDist2]

4. I have repeatdly posted here AZ is in PLAY people

while the democrats are still lagging in actual registrations we will pick up a ton of the "other/no party preferred" voters

Democratic 807,389
Libertarian 16,441
Republican 920,556
Other 529,981

http://www.sos.state.az.us/election/Active_Voter_Count.pdf

[dr.strangelove]

6. Its all about the VP

Arizona, New Mexico and possibly Nevada may sway Blue if Bill Richardon is VP. The level of McCain's "support" for Bush will also be important to shift AZ to blue.

Without Richarson, I don;t think Nevada is likely to go Blue. I think AZ is going to be a toss up though. It'd make it easier if we pulled the SW to the blue side.